Powerball Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 20 minutes ago, cheese007 said: If I'm in far northwest Dallas county and didn't lose power last year, should I head up north to McKinney where my dad has a generator even though the icing is likely to be worse there? I would. You can't control the weather, but at least you can be sure you'll have electricity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 5.6C at Love field at 17Z, 12 km NAM predicting 6.9C at 18Z. And the area is cooling down, not warming up. GFS forecast 18Z temp is 7.5C. SPS reporting snow and 30F (may be auto observation), NAM sounding is sleet at 18Z, SPC Meso analysis off RAP says 850 mb freezing line is about there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Hmmm, looks like FWD lowered the snow/ice amounts. Am interested to read the explanation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 6 minutes ago, Powerball said: Hmmm, looks like FWD lowered the snow/ice amounts. Am interested to read the explanation. Ah...the 12z EURO... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 13 minutes ago, Powerball said: Hmmm, looks like FWD lowered the snow/ice amounts. Am interested to read the explanation. Where did you see this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Down The Rabbit Hole Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Correct me if I'm wrong, but the 12z NAM seems to be trending in the right direction for the Austin area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 4 minutes ago, cheese007 said: Where did you see this? I look up the NWS grid forecast for my location. This morning, it showed 0.2"-0.4" of ice and 1-3" of snow/sleet tomorrow, and now it only shows 0.1"-0.2" of ice and 1-2" of snow/sleet tomorrow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vwgrrc Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 54 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said: 5.6C at Love field at 17Z, 12 km NAM predicting 6.9C at 18Z. And the area is cooling down, not warming up. GFS forecast 18Z temp is 7.5C. SPS reporting snow and 30F (may be auto observation), NAM sounding is sleet at 18Z, SPC Meso analysis off RAP says 850 mb freezing line is about there. Correct me if I was wrong - what you're trying to say here is it's colder than models forecasted? I think that means less time for FR to fall but more snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 So FWD is hedging on a faster transition to sleet to cut down on ice accumulations... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 The temperature drop has taken a breather for now. Most places are within a degree or two (+/-) of 40*F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vwgrrc Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 32 minutes ago, Powerball said: So FWD is hedging on a faster transition to sleet to cut down on ice accumulations... while 18z NAM is still painting DFW with FR really hard! I'm on FWD's side on this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 23 minutes ago, vwgrrc said: while 18z NAM is still painting DFW with FR really hard! I'm on FWD's side on this one That 18z run is even worse than the 12z, which was already Catastrophic-looking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 2 hours ago, vwgrrc said: Correct me if I was wrong - what you're trying to say here is it's colder than models forecasted? I think that means less time for FR to fall but more snow? Change to ice comes sooner. I don't know about change to snow, although 12Z NAM was too warm comparing the sounding to the RAP generated current condition. NAM had a warm nose, RAP model which is initialized more often had their 850 mb below freezing. Or Wichita Falls looks like mostly snow. DFW, no idea. But the change to frozen may come a few hours early just based on NAM and GFS being too warm 5-6 hours after initialization. If SPS is a guide, the change to snow may come sooner as well. SPS (Wichita Falls) obs to freezing rain, but that may be automated and they are sometimes wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vwgrrc Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 10 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said: Change to ice comes sooner. I don't know about change to snow, although 12Z NAM was too warm comparing the sounding to the RAP generated current condition. NAM had a warm nose, RAP model which is initialized more often had their 850 mb below freezing. Or Wichita Falls looks like mostly snow. DFW, no idea. But the change to frozen may come a few hours early just based on NAM and GFS being too warm 5-6 hours after initialization. If SPS is a guide, the change to snow may come sooner as well. SPS (Wichita Falls) obs to freezing rain, but that may be automated and they are sometimes wrong. At 21z, KDFW observed 40F and NAM is forecasting 41F. I would call that pretty close at this point at least. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 FTW is reporting sleet with a temp of 35°F (as of 4pm). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 As of 5pm, FTW is down to 33°F, DFW is down to 35°F and McKinney is down to 34°F. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherextreme Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0112.html Mesoscale Discussion 0112 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0625 PM CST Wed Feb 02 2022 Areas affected...much of central Oklahoma Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation Valid 030025Z - 030430Z SUMMARY...A mix of freezing rain, sleet, and moderate snow is expected to continue across central Oklahoma into the evening hours. A gradual change over to snow is expected to happen across central into eastern Oklahoma as low to mid-level temperatures continue to cool from west to east. DISCUSSION...An embedded mid-level impulse is pivoting around the broader upper trough and is ejecting into the southern Plains, contributing to an uptick in more widespread moderate to heavy wintry precipitation. Instances of freezing rain and sleet have been reported across northern TX into eastern OK, with northern OK experiencing brief occasions of moderate snow. The 21Z and 00Z OUN observed soundings showed 0-1C temperatures just above 850 mb (1500-1700 meters above ground level), with KTLX/KFDR dual-polarimetric radar data depicting a band of higher ZDR/lower correlation-coefficient values from Cotton/Jefferson to Creek Counties in OK, indicating the location of the wintry precipitation transition zone. However, some of the last few radar scans show an eastward propagation of the transition zone. While wintry mixed precipitation is expected to persist, a gradual transition to mostly snow is possible from western to eastern OK as the 850 mb temperatures continue to slowly cool. However, despite the near-saturated troposphere, temperatures above 850 mb hovering near the freezing mark may reduce efficiency in dendrite production, with snow rates expected to be moderate, perhaps reaching 1 inch/hour rates on a brief basis. Wintry mixed precipitation should persist the longest across eastern OK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 Freeze line is basically from Junction to DFW to Paris. Here it is holding about 40 but heavier precip about to move in and temps look like it drops to mid 30s with that.Freeze line is basically from Junction to South of DFW (though Dallas itself is holding at 34) to Paris. Here it is holding about 40 with mid 30s just NW of here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vwgrrc Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 SW Denton Ct. here. Even though the radar shows all pink for the whole county, I just stepped outside it's still all plain rain. Temp at -1C now. Interesting! I wonder maybe the FR part is not going to be as bad as the models depicted? Edit: 0z NAM HRRR HRW all showing very concerning amount of icing for north half of DFW. I see ice on the tree in our neighborhood already. This gonna be a very long night folks... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 My power flickered about 10-15 minutes ago. Here we go... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 Freeze line hs arrived in my area. Raining moderately for a while now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SWineman Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 Sleeting pretty good here in NW Fort Worth. Opened the front door and all you hear are sirens. Eek. Please stay home if you can! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vwgrrc Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 41 minutes ago, Powerball said: My power flickered about 10-15 minutes ago. Here we go... Addison? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 2 minutes ago, vwgrrc said: Addison? Yes, and they did flicker a 2nd time after that post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vwgrrc Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 Just now, Powerball said: Yes, and they did flicker a 2nd time after that post. I'm about 10 miles north of you I'm monitoring Oncor's map closely. Everything looks good so far. Finger crossed it stays that way! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 The anchor on Fox 4 (Steve Eager) mentioned on-air that his mom's house in Carrollton is without power. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 Power was flickering a 3rd time just a few minutes ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vwgrrc Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 Just switched from FR to sleet in S Denton County. That was about 4 hours of FR.I feel this started a little earlier than expected but didn't quite progress as bad as the models depicted. I saw a clear coat of ice on tree branches about 9PM and that stays basically unchanged as of now, which is fine for powerline. Hopefully I didn't call that too early! Edit: looks like a portion of Addison lost power based on Oncor map. Not sure if @Powerball is still on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 I am in Buda, TX about 36 degrees no ice but a lot of rain has fallen and is still falling here. We were originally supposed to get one half to three quarters of an inch of rain with this event but it has been pouring on and off for hours throughout Wednesday evening on into early Thursday morning. I have measured at least three inches of rain since about 1pm Wednesday. It may be closer to four inches by now. Still pouring. Observing thunder and lightning as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 Precip coming down quick by DFW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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