Powerball Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 5 minutes ago, vwgrrc said: Same on 18z NAM as well. It's now only 33hr out but the QPF almost doubled. Is this even right?? It's also notable the FR band seems moving NW quite a bit compared to 12z. Does this mean it may put DFW out of the core area is very worth watching out for! The 18z does show more ice for Collin/Denton counties, but in fact it shows less for everywhere else. That said, it's still a significant amount of ice (0.50"+). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vwgrrc Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 18z GFS mostly unchanged for DFW, about 1" of freezing rain on the eastern half and less on the west side. Crazy even Austin will be under some significant icing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 2 minutes ago, vwgrrc said: 18z GFS mostly unchanged for DFW, about 1" of freezing rain on the eastern half and less on the west side. Crazy even Austin will be under some significant icing. 18z GFS showed an increase in the ice amounts for everywhere except Collin County (where it's about the same). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Dallas ISD has closed schools for Thurs/Fri 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 A couple of hundred meters of thickness of the subfreezing layer, a half a degree C an ice storm that leaves thousands powerless or a sleet storm that makes driving dangerous but not impossible. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vwgrrc Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 0z HRRR decreased the fr quite a bit but uped snow amount. This is good news! Will need to watch if NAM follows.Sent from my SM-G991U1 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 0Z HRRR is initialized off the 23Z RAP, it doesn't have the data the NAM or GFS will have on their 0Z run. It was designed as a very short term model, mostly for severe weather prediction. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 The NSSL is just plain ugly. Widespread 0.75"+ of ice, and that's right from the start (no rain), and then a good 1"+ in QPF of sleet on top of it (sleet is typically assumed to have a 3:1 ratio, so that translates into 3" of sleet). That would probably shut thing down until Saturday, when it finally melts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vwgrrc Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 The NSSL is just plain ugly. Widespread 0.75"+ of ice, and that's right from the start (no rain), and then a good 1"+ in QPF of sleet on top of it (sleet is typically assumed to have a 3:1 ratio, so that translates into 3" of sleet). That would probably shut thing down until Saturday, when it finally melts.Dumb question but what's NSSL?Sent from my SM-G991U1 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 32 minutes ago, vwgrrc said: Dumb question but what's NSSL? Sent from my SM-G991U1 using Tapatalk https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrwnssl&pwplus=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 It begins... URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 858 PM CST Tue Feb 1 2022 TXZ091-092-100>102-115>117-129-021200- /O.UPG.KFWD.WS.A.0001.220203T0000Z-220204T0000Z/ /O.NEW.KFWD.WS.W.0001.220202T2100Z-220204T0000Z/ Montague-Cooke-Young-Jack-Wise-Stephens-Palo Pinto-Parker- Eastland- Including the cities of Bowie, Nocona, Gainesville, Graham, Olney, Jacksboro, Decatur, Bridgeport, Breckenridge, Mineral Wells, Weatherford, Briar, Cisco, Eastland, Ranger, and Gorman 858 PM CST Tue Feb 1 2022 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM CST THURSDAY... * WHAT...A transition from rain to freezing rain then to sleet and snow. Total snow and sleet accumulations of 2 to 4 inches and ice accumulations of around one tenth to two tenths of an inch. * WHERE...Portions of north central Texas. * WHEN...From 3 PM Wednesday to 6 PM CST Thursday. * IMPACTS...Travel will be dangerous. The hazardous conditions will impact the morning and evening commute on Thursday. The cold wind chills as low as 5 below zero could result in hypothermia if precautions are not taken. Power outages and tree damage will be possible due to ice. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. The latest road conditions for Texas can be found at drivetexas.org. && $$ URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 858 PM CST Tue Feb 1 2022 TXZ093>095-103>107-118>121-130>134-141>145-156-157-021200- /O.UPG.KFWD.WS.A.0001.220203T0000Z-220204T0000Z/ /O.NEW.KFWD.WS.W.0001.220203T0000Z-220204T0000Z/ Grayson-Fannin-Lamar-Denton-Collin-Hunt-Delta-Hopkins-Tarrant- Dallas-Rockwall-Kaufman-Erath-Hood-Somervell-Johnson-Ellis- Comanche-Mills-Hamilton-Bosque-Hill-Lampasas-Coryell- Including the cities of Sherman, Denison, Bonham, Paris, Carrollton, Denton, Lewisville, Flower Mound, Plano, McKinney, Allen, Frisco, Greenville, Commerce, Cooper, Sulphur Springs, Fort Worth, Arlington, Dallas, Rockwall, Heath, Terrell, Kaufman, Forney, Stephenville, Dublin, Granbury, Oak Trail Shores, Glen Rose, Cleburne, Burleson, Waxahachie, Ennis, Midlothian, Comanche, De Leon, Goldthwaite, Hamilton, Hico, Clifton, Meridian, Valley Mills, Hillsboro, Lampasas, Copperas Cove, and Gatesville 858 PM CST Tue Feb 1 2022 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM CST THURSDAY... * WHAT...A transition from rain to freezing rain then to sleet and snow. Total snow accumulations of up to two inches and ice accumulations of two tenths to half an inch. * WHERE...Portions of north central and northeast Texas. * WHEN...From 6 PM Wednesday to 6 PM CST Thursday. * IMPACTS...Travel will be dangerous. The hazardous conditions will impact the morning and evening commute on Thursday. The cold wind chills as low as zero could result in hypothermia if precautions are not taken. Power outages and tree damage are likely due to ice. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. The latest road conditions for Texas can be found at drivetexas.org. && $$ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vwgrrc Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 15 minutes ago, cheese007 said: It begins... URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 858 PM CST Tue Feb 1 2022 TXZ091-092-100>102-115>117-129-021200- /O.UPG.KFWD.WS.A.0001.220203T0000Z-220204T0000Z/ /O.NEW.KFWD.WS.W.0001.220202T2100Z-220204T0000Z/ Montague-Cooke-Young-Jack-Wise-Stephens-Palo Pinto-Parker- Eastland- Including the cities of Bowie, Nocona, Gainesville, Graham, Olney, Jacksboro, Decatur, Bridgeport, Breckenridge, Mineral Wells, Weatherford, Briar, Cisco, Eastland, Ranger, and Gorman 858 PM CST Tue Feb 1 2022 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM CST THURSDAY... * WHAT...A transition from rain to freezing rain then to sleet and snow. Total snow and sleet accumulations of 2 to 4 inches and ice accumulations of around one tenth to two tenths of an inch. * WHERE...Portions of north central Texas. * WHEN...From 3 PM Wednesday to 6 PM CST Thursday. * IMPACTS...Travel will be dangerous. The hazardous conditions will impact the morning and evening commute on Thursday. The cold wind chills as low as 5 below zero could result in hypothermia if precautions are not taken. Power outages and tree damage will be possible due to ice. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. The latest road conditions for Texas can be found at drivetexas.org. && $$ URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 858 PM CST Tue Feb 1 2022 TXZ093>095-103>107-118>121-130>134-141>145-156-157-021200- /O.UPG.KFWD.WS.A.0001.220203T0000Z-220204T0000Z/ /O.NEW.KFWD.WS.W.0001.220203T0000Z-220204T0000Z/ Grayson-Fannin-Lamar-Denton-Collin-Hunt-Delta-Hopkins-Tarrant- Dallas-Rockwall-Kaufman-Erath-Hood-Somervell-Johnson-Ellis- Comanche-Mills-Hamilton-Bosque-Hill-Lampasas-Coryell- Including the cities of Sherman, Denison, Bonham, Paris, Carrollton, Denton, Lewisville, Flower Mound, Plano, McKinney, Allen, Frisco, Greenville, Commerce, Cooper, Sulphur Springs, Fort Worth, Arlington, Dallas, Rockwall, Heath, Terrell, Kaufman, Forney, Stephenville, Dublin, Granbury, Oak Trail Shores, Glen Rose, Cleburne, Burleson, Waxahachie, Ennis, Midlothian, Comanche, De Leon, Goldthwaite, Hamilton, Hico, Clifton, Meridian, Valley Mills, Hillsboro, Lampasas, Copperas Cove, and Gatesville 858 PM CST Tue Feb 1 2022 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM CST THURSDAY... * WHAT...A transition from rain to freezing rain then to sleet and snow. Total snow accumulations of up to two inches and ice accumulations of two tenths to half an inch. * WHERE...Portions of north central and northeast Texas. * WHEN...From 6 PM Wednesday to 6 PM CST Thursday. * IMPACTS...Travel will be dangerous. The hazardous conditions will impact the morning and evening commute on Thursday. The cold wind chills as low as zero could result in hypothermia if precautions are not taken. Power outages and tree damage are likely due to ice. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. The latest road conditions for Texas can be found at drivetexas.org. && $$ Will have to say the ice accumulation in this warning seems a lot less than what most models are suggesting. Not sure if they see something that we don't Meanwhile, 0z CMC is coming in. Even more FR and sleet than its previous runs. Crazy! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 28 minutes ago, vwgrrc said: Will have to say the ice accumulation in this warning seems a lot less than what most models are suggesting. Not sure if they see something that we don't Meanwhile, 0z CMC is coming in. Even more FR and sleet than its previous runs. Crazy! FWD mentioned in the short term that they nudged down ice totals and explained their reasoning there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vwgrrc Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 41 minutes ago, cheese007 said: FWD mentioned in the short term that they nudged down ice totals and explained their reasoning there Yes. Sounds like their reasoning for that is the latest NAM suggesting a slower cold air front so that there's a smaller time window for FR to fall in DFW. But my impression for this type of event is the models normally underestimate the progression of cold air thus the surface temp will look warmer than what actually pans out. Maybe that is only the case for GFS not NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TXHawk88 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 For what it’s worth 0z & 6z HRRR have really bumped up the snow totals for DFW and brought freezing rain and sleet totals down a bit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 19 minutes ago, TXHawk88 said: For what it’s worth 0z & 6z HRRR have really bumped up the snow totals for DFW and brought freezing rain and sleet totals down a bit. There are growing hints that this could be a snow event for DFW though I would still lean towards a primarily sleet event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vwgrrc Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 There are growing hints that this could be a snow event for DFW though I would still lean towards a primarily sleet event.Afd actually increased their ice forecast in the latest update.Sent from my SM-G991U1 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 I think Nowcast on actual P-types. Looking at 6Z GFS, major ice versus heavy sleet in DFW is a degree difference in temps and a small difference in the depth of the below freezing surface layer. Then a nice snow for the scenery but if there is half an inch of ice, nobody who has a choice will be driving and some trees will come down on electric lines. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Not a high chance but if trends continue this could turn from expected ice storm to one of the biggest snows in DFW history. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Verbatim, 6Z GFS is more ice or sleet than snow. I think the hard to answer question is ice or sleet. The 3 or 5 inches of snow at the end will make it look nice. 6Z 3km NAM is a little ice, then a fair amount of sleet, followed by a little snow. That would be better case scenario but too early to lock in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 I would be careful with those models showing snow. They still show a warm layer aloft during those time frames, plus they tend to be too bullish with ratios. There's also some question of how quickly the better forcing will wane when the transition in p-types take place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Most snow maps use a 10:1 ration liquid to snow, and most don't differentiate between snow and sleet. Sleet tends to be 2:1 to 3:1, or a 'clown map' 10 inches of snow (with 10:1 ratio) might be 4 inches of snow on top of a couple of inches of sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 000 FXUS64 KFWD 021210 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 610 AM CST Wed Feb 2 2022 ...New Short Term, Aviation... .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ Update: The cold front is moving into far Western North Texas at this hour and is outperforming guidance by coming in colder than previously thought. Freezing rain is currently being reported as far south as Fort Sill, OK. Expect the cold air to barrel south through the day. The forecast was adjusted to reflect this change by moving up the onset of winter precipitation. We now have sleet and freezing rain starting over Montague/Young/Jack Counties as early as 10-11 AM. The tail-end of the evening rush hour over the far NW of the Metroplex is now likely to be impacted by winter precip late this afternoon. The other result of the cooler temperatures is that less ice is forecast over Western North Texas. While there will be less ice, there will be more snow and have increased our high end snow forecast to range between 4-6 inches. We remain confident of a significant ice storm occurring tonight, although there may be more sleet than we previously thought due to the cooler temps. The remainder of the forecast discussion below still applies. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vwgrrc Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 12z 12km nam fr is simply insane for dfw especially the eastern half. But meanwhile 3km nam is showing basically nothing for Dallas..Sent from my SM-G991U1 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 It seems the Hi-Res models are struggling with how the handle the effect (if any) of DFW's UHI on surface temps. They could be onto something, but we'll have to find out. That 12km NAM run is catastrophic. That would have to be amongst the worst ice storms in Dallas' history. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 7 minutes ago, Powerball said: It seems the Hi-Res models are struggling with how the handle the effect (if any) of DFW's UHI on surface temps. They could be onto something, but we'll have to find out. That 12km NAM run is catastrophic. That would have to be amongst the worst ice storms in Dallas' history. Overall though, the trend is not good. On the whole, models have definitely increased the ice accumulations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vwgrrc Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 16 minutes ago, Powerball said: It seems the Hi-Res models are struggling with how the handle the effect (if any) of DFW's UHI on surface temps. They could be onto something, but we'll have to find out. That 12km NAM run is catastrophic. That would have to be amongst the worst ice storms in Dallas' history. Regardless, there's pretty much a consensus across the models that Collin County will get a tons ice unfortunately. That's really concerning given how populated Allen/McKinney/Frisco area is. Most of our friends are in these 3 cities and got hit hard in last year's poweroutage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhirlingWx Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 12 minutes ago, vwgrrc said: Regardless, there's pretty much a consensus across the models that Collin County will get a tons ice unfortunately. That's really concerning given how populated Allen/McKinney/Frisco area is. Most of our friends are in these 3 cities and got hit hard in last year's poweroutage. I got lucky last year to not lose power (I still don't know how exactly the grids work - I know I'm near a fire station but some people I know in a similar situation still lost power). I've been following this thread and consider me quite worried as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vwgrrc Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 26 minutes ago, TexMexWx said: I got lucky last year to not lose power (I still don't know how exactly the grids work - I know I'm near a fire station but some people I know in a similar situation still lost power). I've been following this thread and consider me quite worried as well. Well. there's a key difference right? Last year was a controlled power outage because of supply shortage. This time looks like powerline may not be able to holdup with the ice in some area. that's a bigger issue if it does happen because no one controls that and it takes longer to fix. Edit: 12z GFS even more QPF for Collin County. This trend is bad. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 1 hour ago, vwgrrc said: Well. there's a key difference right? Last year was a controlled power outage because of supply shortage. This time looks like powerline may not be able to holdup with the ice in some area. that's a bigger issue if it does happen because no one controls that and it takes longer to fix. Edit: 12z GFS even more QPF for Collin County. This trend is bad. If I'm in far northwest Dallas county and didn't lose power last year, should I head up north to McKinney where my dad has a generator even though the icing is likely to be worse there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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