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Texas/Oklahoma Discussion & Obs Thread 2021


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Pretty difficult forecast for N TX today. Models haven't been in too much agreement on timing or areal coverage. Morning cap has eroded with a decent cu field on satellite. Dry line off to the west should also serve as a focal point for convection not to mention westward moving outflow boundary over E TX could complicate matters further this evening.

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..A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 PM CDT
FOR NORTH CENTRAL LOVE AND SOUTH CENTRAL CARTER COUNTIES...

At 417 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 8 miles west of
Overbrook, moving east at 10 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Ardmore, Lone Grove and western Lake Murray.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.
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  • 2 weeks later...

Not quite a 1994 East Pac Hurricane Rosa's mid-level center crossing over a very shallow cold air mass with flow off the Gulf just off the surface and raining so much the San Jacinto river in Houston gouged itself deep enough to uncover and rupture gasoline and diesel pipelines and set the river on fire, but SW flow is bringing Pamela's remnants up along a stationary boundary with seasonably high 60s/low 70s dewpoints ahead of it, prompting WPC to put the areas near and W of I-35 in a Moderate Risk for excessive flooding with 5-7 inch rain totals. One picture is the San Jacinto river on fire, the other is the stationary front the ML center of Pam should track over.  But even when Texas hurricane season is over, the tropics still influence the weather.

sanjac.jpg

TangentiallyRelated.PNG

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7 hours ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

Not quite a 1994 East Pac Hurricane Rosa's mid-level center crossing over a very shallow cold air mass with flow off the Gulf just off the surface and raining so much the San Jacinto river in Houston gouged itself deep enough to uncover and rupture gasoline and diesel pipelines and set the river on fire, but SW flow is bringing Pamela's remnants up along a stationary boundary with seasonably high 60s/low 70s dewpoints ahead of it, prompting WPC to put the areas near and W of I-35 in a Moderate Risk for excessive flooding with 5-7 inch rain totals. One picture is the San Jacinto river on fire, the other is the stationary front the ML center of Pam should track over.  But even when Texas hurricane season is over, the tropics still influence the weather.

sanjac.jpg

TangentiallyRelated.PNG

Torrential rain closing in on I-35 with Blanco County estimating 5” rain. It’s Flash Flood Alley in that area for a reason. I remember Patricia’s remnants in Oct 2015 causing the heaviest rain I’ve ever seen in my life in Austin when I lived there. Parts of the city near the airport had I think close to 15” of rain. Not too long before the area had the insane May 2015 floods which devastated Wimberley, San Marcos and other towns on the Blanco River. This won’t be nearly as bad thankfully but Pacific tropical remnants can cause plenty of havoc along I-35. 

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  • 1 month later...
12 hours ago, Jebman said:

I am down here in Buda TX. I am LOVIN low temps being twenty degrees above normal! I wish the ridge over the GOM would become semipermanent into April. I love 80/66 conditions. Trees are sprouting spring leaves down here! My tomato plant is STILL producing tomatoes!

That is definitely crazy.

Haven't noticed any trees sprouting leaves here, yet.

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14 hours ago, Powerball said:

That is definitely crazy.

Haven't noticed any trees sprouting leaves here, yet.

Yes, it is. Its not even New Year's yet and some of the trees "think" it is spring already. But I am definitely lovin it! I'd like it to stay 80/67 the next 10 weeks. As far as I'm concerned, the subtropical high in the GOM can just sit there and become semipermanent and intensify to about 640 decimaters. This is perfect weather! I been laughing at my relatives up North in Wisconsin and in Illinois.

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WWA for East Texas. Minor sleet accumulation around Nacogdoches with temps around freezing. Light snow around Kilgore with temps in mid 20s. Band of flurries moving in here, NW Smith County, with temps in the low 20s. The wave is creating the best lift where temps are borderline so with recent warmth I doubt there are any significant roadway issues. Around here with low 20s any precip should stick regardless of prior temps.

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  • 2 weeks later...

12Z Euro verbatim is about 5F for the mother of all ice storms for Houston, just about there for Austin (near freezing and warmer 850s), and has snow in DFW next weekend.  GFS a bit warmer.  Weenie wishing a global at 5 days is too warm, or IMBY/Houston is probably a cold rain.  But even GFS suggesting Winter fun in North Texas.

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