October 2021 temperature forecast contest

[Roger Smith]

Predict the temperature anomalies (F deg) relative to 1991-2020 normal values ...

for ___ DCA _ NYC _ BOS _ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

(deadline 06z Friday Oct 1st )

[so_whats_happening]

DCA +2.5

NYC +1.7

BOS +1.2

ORD +3.2

ATL +1

IAH +1

DEN +1.4

PHX +0.4

SEA -0.8

[wxallannj]

DCA +1.8

NYC +2.0

BOS +1.4

ORD +3.0

ATL +2.0

IAH +1.0

DEN +2.2

PHX +2.0

SEA -1.2

[donsutherland1]

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

2.8      3.0     2.8        6.0     2.4     1.6       1.0      -0.1      -0.4

[Tom]

DCA +3.2

NYC +3.6

BOS +3.5

ORD +4.2

ATL +2.9

IAH +1.2

DEN +1.1

PHX +1.2

SEA -1.8

[Scotty Lightning]

 DCA _ NYC _ BOS _ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

 

1.0       1.0        1.0      0.5     1.0       1.5    0.5     1.0      0.5 

[RodneyS]

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

 2.2      3.1      2.8        3.1      1.6     1.1         1.4    -0.4    -0.4

[Roger Smith]

+2.0 _ +2.3 _ +2.7 _ +2.5 _ +0.2 _ +0.2 _ +3.5 _ +1.7 _ +0.4

[Rjay]

DCA +3.2

NYC +3.5

BOS +3.7

ORD +5.0

ATL +2.8

IAH +2.0

DEN +2.2

PHX +1.0

SEA +0.3

[bkviking]

DCA +1.9

NYC +1.8

BOS +1.9

ORD +2.6

ATL +1.5

IAH +1.2

DEN +1.6

PHX +1.0

SEA +0.3

[Iceresistance]

OKC +2

[hudsonvalley21]

DCA +2.2

NYC +2.1

BOS +2.4

ORD +1.9

ATL +1.7

IAH +1.9

DEN +0.8

PHX +0.1

SEA -0.3

[wxdude64]

DCA:: -0.7

NYC:  -0.5

BOS:  -0.3

ORD:  -0.8

ATL:  +0.4

IAH:  +0.5

DEN:  +1.1

PHX:  +1.6

SEA:  +0.2

[Roger Smith]

Table of forecasts for October 2021

FORECASTER ___________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _ATL _IAH ___ DEN _PHX _SEA ___ bias

 

Tom ____________________ +3.2 _+3.6 _+3.5 __ +4.2 _+2.9 _+1.2 ___ -1.1 _ +1.2 _ -1.8 ____ +0.23

RJay __________ (-1%) ___ +3.2 _+3.5 _+3.7 __ +5.0 _+2.8 _+2.0 ___+2.2 _+1.0 _+0.3 ___ +0.99

DonSutherland1 ________ +2.8 _+3.0 _+2.8 __ +6.0 _+2.4 _+1.6 ___ +1.0 _-0.1 _-0.4 ____ +0.48

so_whats_happening ____+2.5 _+1.7 _+1.2 __ +3.2 _+1.0 _+1.0 ___ +1.4 _+0.4 _-0.8 ____ -0.36 

RodneyS ________________ +2.2 _+3.1 _+2.8 __ +3.1 _+1.6 _+1.1 ____ +1.4 _-0.4 _-0.4 ____ -0.03

hudsonvalley21 _ (-2%) __+2.2 _+2.1 _+2.4 __ +1.9 _+1.7 _+1.9 ____+0.8 _+0.1 _-0.3 ____ -0.22

 

___ Consensus __________ +2.1 _+2.2 _+2.6 __ +3.1 _+1.6 _+1.2 ____ +1.3 _+1.0 _-0.3

 

Deformation Zone ______ +2.0 _+2.5 _+4.0 __ +3.5 _+1.5 _+0.5 ___ -0.5 __ 0.0 _-2.5 ____ -0.42

Roger Smith _____________+2.0 _+2.3 _+2.7 __ +2.5 _+0.2 _+0.2 ___+3.5 _+1.7 _+0.4 ____ +0.08

BKViking _____ (-2%) ____ +1.9 _+1.8 _+1.9 __ +2.6 _+1.5 _+1.2 ____ +1.6 _+1.0 _+0.3 ____ -0.11

wxallannj ________________+1.8 _+2.0 _+1.4 __ +3.0 _+2.0 _+1.0 ___ +2.2 _+2.0 _-1.2 ____ -0.07

Scotty Lightning _________+1.0 _+1.0 _+1.0 __ +0.5 _+1.0 _+1.5 ___ +0.5 _+1.0 _+0.5 ____ -0.76

___ Normal _______________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ 0.0 __0.0 __0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ -1.64

wxdude64 ___ (-2%) _____ -0.7 _-0.5 _-0.3 ___-0.8 _+0.4 _+0.5 ___ +1.1 _+1.6 _+0.2 ____ -1.48

_____________________________________________________

Color codes show the warmest and coldest forecasts. Normal is coldest for ATL, IAH. 

Bias reveals the average departure of each forecaster (and Normal) from the consensus. 

[Roger Smith]

October anomalies so far and projections ...

_________________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

13th ___ (12d anom) ____ +6.0 _ +3.8 _ +5.0e__+11.5 _+4.9 _+2.7 __+4.1 _ -3.2 _ -5.4

23rd ___ (22d anom) ___ +5.6 _ +4.8 _ +6.6 __ +8.0 _ +3.8 _ +2.6 __+1.8 _-3.8 _ -2.4

13th __ (p20d anom) ____ +5.0 _ +3.0 _ +4.0 __ +7.5 _+3.5 _+2.5 __+4.0 _ -2.0 _ -3.5

13th __ (p31d anom) ____ +4.0 _ +2.5 _ +3.0 __ +4.0 _+3.0 _+2.5 __+4.0 _ -1.0 _ -2.0

23rd __ (p31d anom) ____ +4.5 _ +3.5 _ +4.5 __ +5.5 _+3.0 _+2.0 __+2.0 _-2.5 _-1.5

30th __ (adjusted) _______+4.5 _ +3.5 _ +4.5 __ +5.5 _+3.0 _+3.0 __+3.0 _-2.5 _-1.5

Final anomalies __________+5.5 _ +4.1 _ +5.1 __ +5.7 _+2.5 _+3.0 __+2.8 _-2.6 _-2.0

_______________________________________________

13th _ A generally warm start except in the west which has been quite cold. BOS est from +4.4 11th and +10 departure on 12th ... forecast to 20th based on somewhat reduced warmth in most areas and a slight rebound for the west to near normal values, then the projection to end of the month (GFS run ends 29th) is based on similar trends with the introduction of more variable and sometimes quite cold weather in the plains states reaching the Midwest at least. This will bring the anomalies for ORD back into the range of our forecasts hopefully. 

30th _ Have updated the monthly anomaly projections in a two cases (IAH, DEN), the rest are not looking too far off and can be adjusted at final scoring stage. This will allow for a reliable preview of the actual order of scoring for the month. I am hoping PHX warms up a bit more than shown so that I won't need to use max 60 scoring there (for -2.5 the highest score was 58). 

31st-1st _ Posting final anomalies overnight and adjusting scoring. 

[Roger Smith]

Final scoring for October 2021

Scoring is based on the most recent provisional end of month anomalies posted in the previous post. For now, the scoring is posted in the same order as the forecast table. This makes updates a bit faster. Asterisks refer to one or two point deductions for late penalties. (* one point deduction, ** two point deduction).

^ _ The top raw scores for DCA were 59 and 58, these were boosted by one to satisfy the max 60 rule, all other raw scores were higher than minimum progression levels. PHX (max raw score 56) also required the "max 60" scoring but it made only slight differences to all scores, as most stayed at or near the raw scores anyway. 

 

FORECASTER __________DCA_NYC_BOS__east_ ORD_ATL_IAH _cent _ c/e__DEN_PHX_SEA _ west __ TOTAL

 

RJay __________ (-1%) ___ 59^* 87*_72*__218 ___ 92*_93*_79*__264__482 __87*_34*^_53*__ 174 ___ 656

DonSutherland1 ________ 51 _ 78 _ 55 __ 184 ___ 97 _ 98 _ 72 __267 __451 __ 64 _ 55^_ 68 __ 187 ___ 638

Tom ____________________ 60^_ 90 _ 69 __219 ___77 _ 92 _ 64 __233 __452 __ 22 _ 24 _ 96 __ 142 ___ 594

RodneyS ________________39 _ 80 _ 55 __ 174 ___ 55 _ 82 _ 62 __199 __373 __ 72 _ 60^_ 68 __ 200 ___ 573

Deformation Zone ______ 35 _ 68 _ 79 __ 182 ___ 63 _ 80 _ 50 __ 193 __375 __ 34 _ 50^_ 90 __ 174 ___ 549

___ Consensus __________ 37 _ 62 _ 51 __ 150 ___ 55 _ 82 _ 64 __ 201 __351 __ 70 _ 35^_ 66 __ 171 ___ 522

hudsonvalley21 _ (-2%)__ 38*_ 59*_46*__143 ___ 30*_ 82**_76**_188__331 __ 59*_45*_ 65* _169 ___ 500

wxallannj _______________ 31 _ 58 _ 27 __ 116 ___ 53 _ 90 _ 60 __ 203 __319 __ 88 _ 08 _ 84 __ 180 ___ 499

so_whats_happening ___ 46 _ 52 _ 23 __ 121 ___ 57 _ 70 _ 60 __ 187 __ 308 __ 72 _ 40 _ 76 __ 188 ___ 496 

BKViking _____ (-2%) ____32*_ 53*_ 36*__121 ___ 44*_78**_63*_ 185 __306 __ 74**34*^_53*__161___ 467

Roger Smith ____________ 35 _ 64 _ 53 __ 152 ___ 43 _ 54 _ 44 __ 141 __293 __ 86 _ 14 _ 52 __ 152 ___ 445

Scotty Lightning ________ 15 _ 38 _ 19 __ 072 ___ 05 _ 70 _ 70 __ 145 __ 217  __ 54 _35^_ 50 __ 139 ___ 356

___ Normal ______________00 _ 18 _ 00 ___018 __ 00 _ 50 _ 40 __ 090 __ 108 ___ 44 _ 48 _ 60 __ 152 ___ 260

wxdude64 ___ (-2%) ____ 05^_ 08 _ 00 __ 013 __ 00 _ 57*_ 49*__  106 __119 ___ 65*_16 _ 55*__ 136 ___ 255

 

_____________________________________________________

EXTREME FORECAST REPORT

_ DCA is a win for highest forecast (without penalty) Tom (+3.4). "No decision" for RJay (+3.4, one point penalty).

_ NYC (+4.1) is a win for Tom (+3.6) with highest forecast.

_ BOS (+5.1) is a win for Deformation Zone (+4.0).

_ ORD (+5.7) is a win for highest forecast Don Sutherland at +6.0.

_ ATL (+2.5) finished closest to third warmest forecast so does not qualify.

_ IAH (+3.0) is a win for RJay (+2.0) with highest forecast. 

_ DEN (+2.8) is a loss for Roger Smith (+3.5) and a win for wxallannj at +2.2.

_ PHX (-2.6) is a win for coldest forecast of RodneyS (-0.4). 

_ SEA (-2.0) is a win for Tom at -1.8 and a loss for DZ at -2.5.  

Overall results: eight forecasts qualify, six for warmest and two for coldest forecasts. 

 

[Roger Smith]

<<<< ============ - - - - Annual Scoring for 2021 (Jan-Oct) - - - - ============ >>>> 

 

High scores for nine locations shown in red, high scores for regions in bold. New feature _ change in rank is shown after forecaster name. No entry there means same position as last month. Consensus moved down one relative to forecasters (from being between 3rd-4th to the gap between 4th-5th). Normal moved down two positions (from 8th-9th to 10th-11th gaps in the forecaster rankings). Other changes shown for forecasters do not include forecasters moving past consensus or normal, or vice versa.  

 

FORECASTER _________________DCA_NYC_BOS__east_ ORD_ATL_IAH__cent __c/e ___DEN_PHX_SEA__west___TOTALS

 

DonSutherland1 ______________ 707 _758 _502 _ 1967 __638 _788 _696 _2122_ 4089__466 _683 _670 _1819___ 5908

RodneyS (up 1) _______________ 653 _732 _515 _ 1900 __511 _756 _612 _ 1879__3779 __566 _694 _698 _ 1958___ 5737

BKViking (down 1) ____________ 685 _758 _515 _ 1958 __471 _733 _666 _ 1870__3828 __555 _631 _674 _ 1860___ 5688

Tom (up 1) ____________________ 718 _797 _561 _ 2076__447 _649 _684 _ 1780__3856 __542 _601 _658 _ 1801___ 5657

 

___ Consensus (down 1) ______ 715 _762 _506 _ 1983 __474 _706 _652 _ 1832__3815 __546 _603 _668 _ 1817___ 5632

 

wxallannj (down 1) ___________ 643 _710 _469 _ 1822 __451 _670 _664 _ 1785__3607 __678 _569 _726 _ 1973___ 5580

hudsonvalley21 (up 1) ________692 _731 _522 _ 1945 __426 _718 _636 _ 1780__3725 __489 _608 _721 _ 1818___ 5543

RJay (up 4) __________________ 655 _707 _556 _ 1918 __532 _679 _617 _ 1828 __3746 __533 _511 _549 _ 1593___ 5339

so_whats_happening (up 1) __ 743 _715 _389 _ 1847 __482 _732 _563 _ 1777__3624 __470 _598 _627 _ 1695___ 5319

wxdude64 (down 3) __________674 _645 _475 _ 1794 __398 _685 _644 _ 1727__3521 __580 _585 _624 _ 1789___ 5310

Scotty Lightning (down 1) ____ 675 _700 _448 _ 1823 __361 _634 _608 _ 1603__3426 __550 _577 _676 _ 1803___ 5229

___ Normal (down 2) __________652 _616 _344 _ 1612 __286 _690 _670 _ 1646 __3258 __530 _644 _678 _1852___ 5110

Roger Smith __________________619 _566 _288 _ 1473 __460 _592 _686 _ 1738 __3211 __502 _539 _656 _ 1697___ 4908

Deformation Zone _ (4/10) ___ 233 _ 218 _154 __ 605 __152 _286 _252 __690___ 1295 __226 _ 230 _ 264 __720___2015

(for comparison prorated)^^ __583 _ 545 _385 _1513 __380 _715 _630 _ 1725 __3238 __565 _ 575 _ 660 _1800 __ 5038

_ this may not be exact because scoring in the four months DZ has entered may have been higher or lower than avg.

 

Best scores for the locations and regions 

 

FORECASTER _______________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ east __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ cent __ c/e ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA __ west ___ Totals

 

DonSutherland1 ______________ 2 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 2 ______4 ____ 1 ____ 1 ____ 4 ____ 4 _____ 0 ____ 3 ____ 1 _____ 0 _____ 1 __ Jan 

RodneyS _____________________ 2 ____ 2 ____ 2 _____ 1 ______ 1 ____ 2 ____ 0 ____ 2 ____ 1 _____ 0 ____ 2 ____ 0 _____ 2 _____ 2 __Feb,Jul

BKViking _____________________ 1 ____ 1 ____ 1 _____ 1 ______ 0 ____ 0 ____ 3 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ____ 1 ____ 2 _____ 0 _____ 1 __ Apr

Tom __________________________ 2 ____ 2 ____ 1 _____ 2 ______ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ____ 0 ____ 1 _____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 2 _____ 1 _____ 1 __ May

___ Consensus _______________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 0 ____ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 _____ 0 _____ 0 __ 

wxallannj _____________________ 0 ____ 2 ____ 1 _____ 0 ______ 1 ____ 1 ____ 2 ____ 1 ____ 0 _____ 4 ____ 1 ____ 1 _____ 3 _____ 0 __

hudsonvalley21 _______________ 0 ____ 0 ____0 _____ 1 ______ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____0 _____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 3 _____ 1 _____ 0 __ 

RJay __________________________ 1 ____ 1 _____ 4 _____ 1 ______ 1 ____ 1 ____ 2 ____ 1 ____ 2 _____ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 _____ 2 __Sep,Oct

so_whats_happening _________ 3 ____ 1 ____ 1 _____ 1 ______ 1 ____ 2 ____ 0 ____ 1 ____ 1 _____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 _____ 1 __ Mar (t)

wxdude64 ____________________ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 _____ 1 ______ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____0 _____ 2 ____ 1 ____ 0 _____ 2 _____ 1 __ Mar (t)

Scotty Lightning ______________ 2 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 1 ____ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 _____ 0 _____ 0 __

___ Normal ____________________ 2 ____ 1 ____ 1 _____ 1 ______ 1 _____ 1 ____ 0 ____ 1 ____ 1 _____ 1 ____ 3 ____ 1 _____ 1 _____ 1 __May,Jul 

Roger Smith __________________ 1 ____ 0 ____ 1 _____ 1 ______ 2 ____ 2 ____ 3 ____ 2 ____ 1 _____ 2 ____ 1 ____ 2 _____ 1 _____ 2  __Jun, Aug 

Deformation Zone ____________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 _____ 0 ______0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 _____0 _____ 0  

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

EXTREME FORECAST STANDINGS

High score must go to either the extreme warm or cold forecast, or second most extreme, for a station to qualify.

So far this year, 69 locations out of 90 have qualified, 4 in Jan, 5 in Feb, 7 in March, 6 in April, 8 in May, June and July, 7 in August, and 8 in September and October.

Of those, 38 were awarded to warmest forecasts, 31 to coldest.

A loss in the standings represents a case where second most extreme forecast had the high score and the win for that month.

Normal can only win along with a forecaster. There have been eight shared wins (one by four and one by three) accounting for the excess of total wins (excl Normal). 

 

FORECASTER _______ Jan __ Feb __ Mar _ Apr _ May _ Jun _ Jul _ Aug _ Sep _ Oct ___ TOTAL to date

Roger Smith _________ 2-1 __ 2-0 __ --- __ 1-0 __ 1-0 __ 2-0 __ --- _ 3-1 _ 3-0 _ 0-1 __ 14-3

RodneyS ____________ ---- __ --- __ ---- __ --- __ 2-1 __ 1-0 __ 6-0 _ --- _ 1-0 _ 1-0 __ 11-1

wxallannj ____________ ---- __ --- __ --- __ 3-0 __ 2-0 __ 3-0 __ --- _ 1-0 _ --- _ 1-0 __ 10-0

DonSutherland1 _____ 2-0 __ 1-0 __ 2-0 __ 0-1 __ 2-0 __ 1-0 __ --- _ --- _ 1-0 _ 1-0 __ 10-1

___ Normal ___________--- __ --- __ 2-0 __ ---- __ 1-0 __ --- __ 5-0 _ 1-0 _ --- _ 0-0 __ 9-0

RJay _________________ --- __ --- __ 2-0 __ 2-0 __ 1-0 __ 1-0 __ --- _ 1-0 _ 1-0 _ 1-0*__ 9-0

so_whats_happening _--- __ 1-0 __ 2-0 __ --- __ --- __ 1-0 __ ---- _ --- _ 3-0 _ --- __ 7-0

Tom __________________---- __ --- __ --- __ --- __ 1-0 __ 1-0 __ ---- _ --- _ --- _ 3-0 __ 5-0

wxdude64 ___________ --- __ 1-0 __ 2-0 __ --- __ --- __ --- __ ---- _ 1-0 _ --- _ --- __ 4-0

Deformation Zone ___ ---- __ --- __ --- __ --- __ --- __ ---- __ 1-0 _ 1-0 _ 1-0 _ 1-1 __ 4-1

BKViking _____________ ---- __ --- __ --- __ --- __ 1-0 __ 1-0 __ 0-1 _ --- _ 1-0 _ --- __ 3-1

Scotty Lightning _____ ---- __ --- __ ---- __ --- __ --- __ 1-1 __ 1-0 _ --- _ 1-0 _ --- __ 3-1

__________________________________

* RJay also had two other near-win efforts in October tied or very close to tied with others but late penalty interfered. These are called "no decision" outings in this contest. 

** Note that for best forecast and extreme forecast awards, players in these current tables will be eligible after any first time forecasters are evaluated in November (seeing as one at least has entered -- meaning that if one of those new entrants wins then the field will be re-evaluated without that score involved).