October Discussion: Bring the Frost-Hold the Snow

[weathafella]

6 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

There's a moment when that occurs, just past dawn ... very fleeting. It only happens once if ever in a given autumn.  This year.. not yet so far.

The antecedent days features less wind.  Then, a hyper efficient radiator night takes place... 

Decoupled and dead calm, it's 24 by dawn ... You step out side and the only thing you hear ...other than the distant white noise of arising society, is the flicking sound of the cold-air dead-fall just raining down.  It's best if yellows and saffrons of orange and red hues, but this will do this with any stage, too. 

In some sense of a more discrete cause for this: maybe moisture in the leaf stems freezes, and as such ... it expands 12% with phase change.  That expansion at last severs the last of any fibers that were fixing the leaf stem to twig, and so the leaf cuts lose.   You can tell later that afternoon if this occurred, because you can see the old layer of dullard-colored leaf fall underneath a dappling of leafs still having their eye-pop. 

It's like a built in guarantee to deleaf the foliage, should the winds of autumn seldom return that year.  

I was more thinking resistant oaks deep into November and then a legit region wide night well below freezing as has happened a few times in recent years.

[Baroclinic Zone]

On 9/25/2021 at 12:00 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

First frost is fast approaching.....discuss.

Still waiting on 1st frost a month later.  typically have one by now, a couple weeks ago.

[powderfreak]

What a disaster of a day.

38-42F and raining with low clouds most of the day.  The only redeeming value was seeing snow on the ski trails just below the cloud deck.

These were the days we tried so hard to avoid .

[Damage In Tolland]

1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

What a disaster of a day.

38-42F and raining with low clouds most of the day.  The only redeeming value was seeing snow on the ski trails just below the cloud deck.

These were the days we tried so hard to avoid .

Microclimates always fascinate me. Today we were like 1/4 me and less at times in fog. One of those dark dark days . When I drove down the hill under about 700’ was like 5 miles viz , no fog with brightening skies at times. This hill socks in with fig so often while areas a bit lower are in the clear so to speak. I’ve always wondered about it 

[PhineasC]

Bounced around 37 degrees all day. Still stuck there now. Rising slowly though. 

[powderfreak]

33 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Microclimates always fascinate me. Today we were like 1/4 me and less at times in fog. One of those dark dark days . When I drove down the hill under about 700’ was like 5 miles viz , no fog with brightening skies at times. This hill socks in with fig so often while areas a bit lower are in the clear so to speak. I’ve always wondered about it 

Ha yeah the massif stretches into the clouds sometimes.  Big fan of microscale stuff myself.

[CoastalWx]

1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

Ha yeah the massif stretches into the clouds sometimes.  Big fan of microscale stuff myself.

Models look interesting heading into and beyond first week of Novie. Lets get some fun going.

[alex]

1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

Ha yeah the massif stretches into the clouds sometimes.  Big fan of microscale stuff myself.

I think I've been in the clouds more time when I lived at 200' in the Winchester Highlands than at 1600' here lol. Topography plays a huge role. Happened all the time when I was at Linderhof - had a house perched up on the hill above Storyland on the Bartlett /Jackson line. It just doesn't happen here in this giant bowl. 

[Typhoon Tip]

4 hours ago, powderfreak said:

What a disaster of a day.

38-42F and raining with low clouds most of the day.  The only redeeming value was seeing snow on the ski trails just below the cloud deck.

These were the days we tried so hard to avoid .

Wait ‘til next May 

[tamarack]

15 hours ago, powderfreak said:

What a disaster of a day.

38-42F and raining with low clouds most of the day.  The only redeeming value was seeing snow on the ski trails just below the cloud deck.

These were the days we tried so hard to avoid .

After bottoming at 28 before the clouds arrived, yesterday was locked in at 40°.  Updated forecast says we get <1" (maybe <0.5") from this coastal.  Will probably get the dousing this Saturday as it's the firearms deer season opener for residents.  (Two sons of friends punched their tickets last Saturday on Youth Day. ) 

[Typhoon Tip]

16 minutes ago, tamarack said:

After bottoming at 28 before the clouds arrived, yesterday was locked in at 40°.  Updated forecast says we get <1" (maybe <0.5") from this coastal.  Will probably get the dousing this Saturday as it's the firearms deer season opener for residents.  (Two sons of friends punched their tickets last Saturday on Youth Day. ) 

That's incarnate the torture endured by the indelibly devoted snow lover ... traveling through the eternal times of autumn.

20 to 40s fun killer temperature days ahead of synoptic events. I bet you, just to smack your faces up there it even smells like snow?   

I've seen that sort of phenomenon wait until 32.1 before the drizzle commences under the slate skies - ... while that internal monologue echoes, ' ..it was just f'n 24 F three hours ago'

[dryslot]

29 minutes ago, tamarack said:

After bottoming at 28 before the clouds arrived, yesterday was locked in at 40°.  Updated forecast says we get <1" (maybe <0.5") from this coastal.  Will probably get the dousing this Saturday as it's the firearms deer season opener for residents.  (Two sons of friends punched their tickets last Saturday on Youth Day. ) 

The opener looks like a washout saturday...........

[DavisStraight]

On 10/25/2021 at 9:52 AM, Typhoon Tip said:

There's a moment when that occurs, just past dawn ... very fleeting. It only happens once if ever in a given autumn.  This year.. not yet so far.

The antecedent days features less wind.  Then, a hyper efficient radiator night takes place... 

Decoupled and dead calm, it's 24 by dawn ... You step out side and the only thing you hear ...other than the distant white noise of arising society, is the flicking sound of the cold-air dead-fall just raining down.  It's best if yellows and saffrons of orange and red hues, but this will do this with any stage, too. 

In some sense of a more discrete cause for this: maybe moisture in the leaf stems freezes, and as such ... it expands 12% with phase change.  That expansion at last severs the last of any fibers that were fixing the leaf stem to twig, and so the leaf cuts lose.   You can tell later that afternoon if this occurred, because you can see the old layer of dullard-colored leaf fall underneath a dappling of leafs still having their eye-pop. 

It's like a built in guarantee to deleaf the foliage, should the winds of autumn seldom return that year.  

I have a mulberry tree that drops all its leaves first frost. That's how I know we had the first frost, leaves are brown now but will stay on the tree until the frost hits.

[PhineasC]

44 degrees with gusts to 1.6 mph here.

[SJonesWX]

25 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

44 degrees with gusts to 1.6 mph here.

stay safe!

[alex]

27 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

44 degrees with gusts to 1.6 mph here.

Very similar here. Lots of damage from the 1-2 mph wind - millions of leaves on the ground all over the woods 

[weathafella]

Ensembles are consistent with some dateline ridging.   We’ll need some amplitude as we got towards legit winter if that’s a pattern.

[powderfreak]

I hate that it does make me feel older to dislike these days... but man I am definitely not a fan of these chilled, wet rainy days.  Low clouds, low ceilings experience, where terrain just rises up into the clouds in all directions... gets dark with headlamp required to be outside by 6pm.  After the time change in a couple weeks, it'll be dark at 4:30pm.  A few months ago it felt like you could start a hike at 6pm, hang outside for an hour or three.

Days and days of dark, chilly rains.  Seems like stick season in the hills though.  It held off for as long as possible but now we are in it until it starts snowing with more frequency.

[PhineasC]

18 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I hate that it does make me feel older to dislike these days... but man I am definitely not a fan of these chilled, wet rainy days.  Low clouds, low ceilings experience, where terrain just rises up into the clouds in all directions... gets dark with headlamp required to be outside by 6pm.  After the time change in a couple weeks, it'll be dark at 4:30pm.  A few months ago it felt like you could start a hike at 6pm, hang outside for an hour or three.

Days and days of dark, chilly rains.  Seems like stick season in the hills though.  It held off for as long as possible but now we are in it until it starts snowing with more frequency.

Been 42-44 and dead calm with overcast for hours here. Steady state.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

42 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I hate that it does make me feel older to dislike these days... but man I am definitely not a fan of these chilled, wet rainy days.  Low clouds, low ceilings experience, where terrain just rises up into the clouds in all directions... gets dark with headlamp required to be outside by 6pm.  After the time change in a couple weeks, it'll be dark at 4:30pm.  A few months ago it felt like you could start a hike at 6pm, hang outside for an hour or three.

Days and days of dark, chilly rains.  Seems like stick season in the hills though.  It held off for as long as possible but now we are in it until it starts snowing with more frequency.

Yea man. Those are brutal but I feel like I’ve always hated them regardless of age. I don’t recall ever enjoying what could be done outdoors in these when I was kid.

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

I hate that it does make me feel older to dislike these days... but man I am definitely not a fan of these chilled, wet rainy days.  Low clouds, low ceilings experience, where terrain just rises up into the clouds in all directions... gets dark with headlamp required to be outside by 6pm.  After the time change in a couple weeks, it'll be dark at 4:30pm.  A few months ago it felt like you could start a hike at 6pm, hang outside for an hour or three.

Days and days of dark, chilly rains.  Seems like stick season in the hills though.  It held off for as long as possible but now we are in it until it starts snowing with more frequency.

Ah ha. I bet you a dozen donuts no kid likes rectal plaque weather, either

[mreaves]

29 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yea man. Those are brutal but I feel like I’ve always hated them regardless of age. I don’t recall ever enjoying what could be done outdoors in these when I was kid.

Yeah, I was gonna say, other than ineedsnow and Mitch, nobody likes this stuff. 

[Baroclinic Zone]

On to the next storm.   Could be another 1-2".

[Damage In Tolland]

That cold first 10 days of November vanished faster than Pickles undies on Dilf night. 
Persistent Gulf of Alaska trough stuck there thru Mid Nov. All Pacific air behind fronts 

[Typhoon Tip]

2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

That cold first 10 days of November vanished faster than Pickles undies on Dilf night. 
Persistent Gulf of Alaska trough stuck there thru Mid Nov. All Pacific air behind fronts 

Really ... nah - I see a teleconnector signaled, trend-footed confidence scenario for a "seasonal cold" wave - meaning ...nothing extraordinary, no.  But pervasive sub 540 hydrostatic thickness, under a generally moderate +PNAP flow structure that pervades the continent, from ~ Nov 2nd through the 9th. 

Of course, that's going by the tenor of the operational GFS, combine with the telecon from the GEFs system - still... I don't find these sources, in that time range, to necessarily be auto- less reliable than the EPS cluster. 

I guess we'll see.  But ...you know?  part of the problem is that we are 'extraordinary event' saturated to the point where we don't see the middling 'normal' departures as readily.  It's sort of conditioning us to collectively even inadvertently miss if not ignore them, altogether.  

Case in point:  Imagine a scenario where there are three distinct winter events in a 10-day period.   One is 3-5" with a big scale -up potential, one is 3-5 but is sketchy, but the D7 one is a historic blizzard.   The first one verifies 4.5" ... while the D7/8 comes in modeled even more terrifying catastrophic.. The, the next sketchy one does surprisingly well, but by shadow of the looming ( now ) D6 cryo-bomb, does anyone even know it is snowing?  Then, the big dawg busts.   What do you think the opinion of those 10 days will be, when in fact ...  9 or 10" is a 7 to 10 day +snow anomaly?    This is the life as weather chart over-stimulated storm junkies - not a very good or realistic perspective.  I mean I'm not saying this is you .. I'm speaking the straw American weather site -  ..Something like that and over-numbing may not be seeing this cool down in early November ( and this is in spirit been consistent for several consecutive cycles of the GFS) - and again.. fits the erstwhile PNA/NAO ... even hints in some Euro runs for -EPO 'blip' but cross that bridge:

[Typhoon Tip]

Yeah... I think I'm good and ready for this Nor'easter to trundle its way out into its death smear across the norther Atlantic and good riddance. 

After awhile with these things ... I tend to get storm fatigue.  Almost "modeling and following the f'er ad nauseam" fatigue, is more like it.  I just get to a point, sometimes even before they happen where it is 'enough is enough' already.   How many different model renditions of the same event does one need to field. Particularly when we all know it will strike one or two communities while sparing the rest of us a pedestrian ordeal.  

It's like a state Lotto ...  If you are that lucky town, you won that storms drawing.   And its like somehow by escape into the model triggered re-imagined reality, we up our chances of picking the right numbers on our tickets.

So, most don't win.... But, because we risk "hurting the storms" feelings, during cancel-culture, or risk getting black-listed in the weather-social-media's equivalence to the House on being Un-American Activities Committee or something...  the storm gets to be an all-timer.  Gosh forbid one ever is - ..who's gonna know it?

[weatherwiz]

Saturday as low topped coastal superell/TOR potential 

[Cyclone-68]

47 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Saturday as low topped coastal superell/TOR potential 

I wonder why nationally October has been such an active tornado month relative to last spring and summer?

[weatherwiz]

5 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said:

I wonder why nationally October has been such an active tornado month relative to last spring and summer?

We've had some pretty impressive systems digging into the West with unseasonably warm/moist conditions from the central U.S to the East. 

[Ginx snewx]

8 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah... I think I'm good and ready for this Nor'easter to trundle its way out into its death smear across the norther Atlantic and good riddance. 

After awhile with these things ... I tend to get storm fatigue.  Almost "modeling and following the f'er ad nauseam" fatigue, is more like it.  I just get to a point, sometimes even before they happen where it is 'enough is enough' already.   How many different model renditions of the same event does one need to field. Particularly when we all know it will strike one or two communities while sparing the rest of us a pedestrian ordeal.  

It's like a state Lotto ...  If you are that lucky town, you won that storms drawing.   And its like somehow by escape into the model triggered re-imagined reality, we up our chances of picking the right numbers on our tickets.

So, most don't win.... But, because we risk "hurting the storms" feelings, during cancel-culture, or risk getting black-listed in the weather-social-media's equivalence to the House on being Un-American Activities Committee or something...  the storm gets to be an all-timer.  Gosh forbid one ever is - ..who's gonna know it?

500k people without power in Mass Lol more than 1 or 2 communities.  I swear you might possibly live in the most boring spot for exciting weather in New England.