ineedsnow Posted October 23, 2021 Share Posted October 23, 2021 some of the 12z GEFS members are hitting SNE really hard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 23, 2021 Share Posted October 23, 2021 We flood 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted October 23, 2021 Share Posted October 23, 2021 1 hour ago, PhineasC said: The 12z ICON might finally be enough rain for some drought stricken areas of Maine. Lava Rock will complain he only got 4” of rain when models were saying 6”. That will be enough though to wash away any bits of lawn he managed to start growing. Next spring he starts with bare ground again. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 23, 2021 Share Posted October 23, 2021 someone is going to get a ton of flooding.. not sure where yet though.. UKIE destroys eastern areas with some spots getting almost a foot of rain 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 23, 2021 Share Posted October 23, 2021 2 hours ago, Ginx snewx said: Mowed and mulched first small dead leaves as soon as the wind picked up we covered again. Heavy rain and wind next week and it's on to mostly stick season cept for the oaks. I was watching Snowtober film and noticed how much greener the leaves were. At least a little color is popping 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 23, 2021 Share Posted October 23, 2021 5 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: someone is going to get a ton of flooding.. not sure where yet though.. UKIE destroys eastern areas with some spots getting almost a foot of rain Euro wants to Ida NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 23, 2021 Share Posted October 23, 2021 Kiss Fishers and Kevin's warm front goodbye 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 23, 2021 Share Posted October 23, 2021 4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Euro wants to Ida NYC Not good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 23, 2021 Share Posted October 23, 2021 that'd flood but not like Ida cinema .. . Guessin' not 14" of rain in 5 hours or whatever that was... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted October 23, 2021 Share Posted October 23, 2021 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: that'd flood but not like Ida cinema .. . Guessin' not 14" of rain in 5 hours or whatever that was... Or 26" in 5 hr in the central VA mts from the remains of Camille. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 23, 2021 Share Posted October 23, 2021 This thing is also jumping around in the Euro guidance, ranging from ALB to southern NH to SE of ISP in the last 3 runs. Haven't detailed the other guidance.. But the lack of lower tropospheric baroclinicity isn't given the low genesis an anchor point ...the models are getting chaotic about where to put it over time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 23, 2021 Share Posted October 23, 2021 2 minutes ago, tamarack said: Or 26" in 5 hr in the central VA mts from the remains of Camille. Heh... yeah, different animal 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 23, 2021 Share Posted October 23, 2021 As a winter storm enthusiast about to reentry into that season ... one should be happy that we are "setting a precedence for coastals" earlier on. At least per may experience - seasons that do that tend to parlay toward more of it as the cold season maturates. That may chap the asses of La Nina -centric seasonal footed outlooks... but it doesn't have to be true every autumn into winter, either. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 23, 2021 Share Posted October 23, 2021 It's interesting if not predictable watching that later 'big red spot' vortex start dampening out like that. I wondered this yesterday, if that thing might start devolving/morphing into something else. I mean it's not atypical for a double dong mid range to start favoring one end or the other as dominant ... Maybe that's happening here. Also, tough to ignore the emerging PNA look to the extended. EPS and GEFs appear in line for at least modest +PNAP, if perhaps in spite of La Nina. Although as we've noted, La Nina's tend to front load so ...heh, maybe we're on the verge of a rare Thanks Giggedy to Xmas winter ...followed by a January thaw+ CC signal, ...followed by a big blizzard bust in early February, before the annual 83 F on Feb 15 - yup ... that's the seasonal outlook. Forget the dissertations of peregrinated graphs and prose, and just go with that one run-on sentence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 23, 2021 Share Posted October 23, 2021 46 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Kiss Fishers and Kevin's warm front goodbye 48 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Euro wants to Ida NYC EPS 3 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 23, 2021 Share Posted October 23, 2021 20 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: EPS even though this goes out to hr 270 thats pretty crazy for a mean! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 23, 2021 Share Posted October 23, 2021 3 hours ago, Baroclinic Zone said: A shooting star. Acceptable to call it that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 23, 2021 Share Posted October 23, 2021 59 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: EPS U wind anomalies FTW. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 23, 2021 Share Posted October 23, 2021 FWIW, the NBM has a mean around 3.8" for FIT but a median of 4.7", so there are actually quite a lot of pieces of guidance (much like individual EPS members) that are real soakers. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 23, 2021 Share Posted October 23, 2021 November should be fun. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 23, 2021 Share Posted October 23, 2021 18 minutes ago, weathafella said: November should be fun. Give me this from last week of November until Mid March and I will show you white. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted October 23, 2021 Share Posted October 23, 2021 Give me this from last week of November until Mid March and I will show you white.Oh boy!Sent from my SM-G981U1 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted October 23, 2021 Share Posted October 23, 2021 That's a stupid amount of rain. I will say that I like that the pattern is getting stormier as we get nearer to winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 23, 2021 Share Posted October 23, 2021 34 minutes ago, Hoth said: That's a stupid amount of rain. I will say that I like that the pattern is getting stormier as we get nearer to winter. Nice block over Canada Ulls underneath that's a winning winter pattern. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 23, 2021 Share Posted October 23, 2021 NAM may be too far N-W with that surface/lower troposphere but as is ...that 18z run is an interesting QPF scenario .. hearkens to 2006 May - though not synoptically analogous per se but the stalled CCB/WCB intersect that elevating the later into a back bent/TROWALing, bear some similarity nonetheless. And, over-top a forced ascent up-slope flow into the eastern whites would probably double that QPF it's already painting if that evolved that way. Thing about 2006 is that it was maybe 2 or 3 weeks out of cap melt and the shed was still heavy when that stalling/similarity took place. So.. prooobably doesn't result the same but ... at this time of year, the October variant may also be operating off a denser PWAT inject so - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 23, 2021 Share Posted October 23, 2021 what the heck is the 18z GFS doing to eastern areas thats big wind for them 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted October 23, 2021 Share Posted October 23, 2021 4 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: what the heck is the 18z GFS doing to eastern areas thats big wind for them That'd be one heck of a coastal storm for eastern areas verbatim. Those wave heights are 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 23, 2021 Share Posted October 23, 2021 1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said: Give me this from last week of November until Mid March and I will show you white. We’re setting up for a fast and fun opening similar to 1995 which was also warm deep into October. I remember meeting a friend for dinner in Central square around Columbus Day. I rode over from Brookline Village on my bike sweating profusely with temperatures in the 80s that day. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 23, 2021 Share Posted October 23, 2021 We flood on the gfs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted October 23, 2021 Share Posted October 23, 2021 GFS Gone Wild on this run (probably?) but I'm here for it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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