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October Discussion: Bring the Frost-Hold the Snow


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3 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

4/15 is when the window opens for it. But I’m not feeling confident and acting on it until after the 25th.
 

Where I’m at, it isn’t early *unless* you get the very poorly timed sig cold weather pattern. We have also talked at great length about the ++ temp anomalies being greatest at night. I’m seeing this here, throughout the year...

Basically, all I’m trying to say is we have seen things mild up but it has NOT translated to longer growing season. WHY?

I think the long term trend has been increasing though? 

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Just now, dendrite said:

4/15 isn’t close to climo even where you are. Heck we can get highs below freezing in mid April…nm lows. 

You guys are dense. We are getting the sig BN *patterns* consistently in early to mid fall and early to mid spring. The ++AN weather and patterns in winter.
 

Got it? That is all. 

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15 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Yes but just lagging much further behind. It’s strange bc just like our discussion—consensus is it’s getting warmer, but vast majority still planting and growing according to old climo. Why? 

I can’t find the 61-90 data right now but the growing season for CON used to be late May into mid September. Heck look at the difference the last 10 years made at CON…

Last 32°, First 32°, growing season

1981-2010: May 19, Sep 24, 127 days

1991-2020: May 8, Oct 3, 146 days

Of course that’s an average so we still get freezes near June and freezes in mid September like last year. I’m not trying to bust your balls, but 4/15 is early no matter how you slice it. Maybe you get away with it one year, but there’s times where we can pull off a freeze that time of year even with CAA mixing.

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1 hour ago, jbenedet said:

Yes but just lagging much further behind. It’s strange bc just like our discussion—consensus is it’s getting warmer, but vast majority still planting and growing according to old climo. Why? 

Bc normals matter less in New England when it’s normal to have a anomalies . Cold Early season anomaly are hitting frequently in fall and spring...doesn’t that answer the question pretty straightforwardly....

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1 hour ago, jbenedet said:

Yes but just lagging much further behind. It’s strange bc just like our discussion—consensus is it’s getting warmer, but vast majority still planting and growing according to old climo. Why? 

Record late frosts/freezes up here this year.  Seems like an odd time to try and make that point.  “Growing” season seems to be getting longer and longer for sure.

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1 hour ago, dendrite said:

I can’t find the 61-90 data right now but the growing season for CON used to be late May into mid September. Heck look at the difference the last 10 years made at CON…

Last 32°, First 32°, growing season

1981-2010: May 19, Sep 24, 127 days

1991-2020: May 8, Oct 3, 146 days

So in 10 years, the SNH growing season increased by almost 3 weeks on average (19 days)?

Thats one huge gain in only 10 years.

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Just now, SnoSki14 said:

Feels like some people are still in denial that the climate has rapidly changed. 

I didn’t get that impression in the least. Every part of the discussion this morning looks to acknowledge the warming climate. So much so that it is assumed and Pope was wondering how growing season has been affected.

Honestly don't get that denial vibe at all.

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15 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

So in 10 years, the SNH growing season increased by almost 3 weeks on average (19 days)?

Thats one huge gain in only 10 years.

You should see the increases on the CT shoreline. Many areas now  have over 200 growing days. This is a cool study where they had temperature data all the way back to 1788 at Yale. 

The average length of the growing season over the past 47 years (1973-2020) is  26 percent higher than the average length of the growing season from 1788 to 1866, an increase from 126 days to 159 days. Since 2004, the length of the growing season has been equal to or exceeded the modern-era average every year, but five.

https://longislandsoundstudy.net/ecosystem-target-indicators/length-of-growing-season/

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8 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Looks like next weekend; early next week could feature some pretty cool temps 

Yeah Sat AM/Sun AM/Mon AM on the GFS look to have at least some sub-freezing in New England.

Sun/Mon here.  I'm sure some will say toss, no freezes until Thanksgiving.  At some point climo will kick in as several NNE sites around that time are near freezing for average lows.

The problem is we just haven't been able to get a clear, high pressure in... which is what next weekend looks like right now.

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gfs_T2m_neus_32.thumb.png.62d06cc906fc0384144ef5f94491a97a.png

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