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October Discussion: Bring the Frost-Hold the Snow


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14 hours ago, weathafella said:

Definitely a much cooler pattern although certainly not cold yet.  Starting next week.

 

Looks like seasonally oscillatory to me...  Not that anyone asked, looks normal autumn cool backs followed by tepid sun mild ups.  

I think the hints of a siggy coastal in the last week of the month has some mass-field identity ( progs ) and may be legit in general - save any details.

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15 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Is it ever going to frost/ freeze this year? I mean nothing north to south thru Helloween even on Ginx charts 

The air mass arriving post fropa this evening...particularly when it nadirs later Monday would be a candidate but ... the advection terms might offset that.   It's close to being able to decouple with the longer nights now.  Anywhere that does likely frosts early Tuesday a.m., but I don't think it is pervasive.  lots of 37s with leaf stripping breezes overnight would keep that from happening.  Could be a partial car-topper out around Orange, Ma.  

I think you need to prepare for an upper 40s at 1200', to just mid or upper 50s interior lower els and the coastal plain Tuesday, though.  Probably some whisking self-destruction CAA clouds too.

Chilly enough for jackets... modestly below normal, and by lax acclimation it will be feel that way.

It rolls out quickly mid week.  Euro has a solid two day stint back toward the upper 60s almost immediately beginning late Wed afternoon - which I wonder if that's too fast.. In fact, the 850 would support 74 Thursday, but unlike recently... that doesn't last.  

After that gets interesting.

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Reported 0.21" to cocorahs and maybe another 0.05" after that 7 AM obs.  Oct. 1-14 had been quite dry (0.04") but tonight should correct that.  Glad I raked leaves yesterday when they were dry and light.  Yesterday's low of 57° was 22° AN and this morning's low was about the same.  Peak of summer - late July - has average minima of 55°.
PWM reported 1.13" from 2-8 AM, and had a TS.

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1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

The air mass arriving post fropa this evening...particularly when it nadirs later Monday would be a candidate but ... the advection terms might offset that.   It's close to being able to decouple with the longer nights now.  Anywhere that does likely frosts early Tuesday a.m., but I don't think it is pervasive.  lots of 37s with leaf stripping breezes overnight would keep that from happening.  Could be a partial car-topper out around Orange, Ma.  

I think you need to prepare for an upper 40s at 1200', to just mid or upper 50s interior lower els and the coastal plain Tuesday, though.  Probably some whisking self-destruction CAA clouds too.

Chilly enough for jackets... modestly below normal, and by lax acclimation it will be feel that way.

It rolls out quickly mid week.  Euro has a solid two day stint back toward the upper 60s almost immediately beginning late Wed afternoon - which I wonder if that's too fast.. In fact, the 850 would support 74 Thursday, but unlike recently... that doesn't last.  

After that gets interesting.

I think we’ll see mid maybe upper 50’s here Monday and Tuesday . With 60-61 for BOS and valleys. Either way.. a nice but short lived break from this endless summer 

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51 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I think we’ll see mid maybe upper 50’s here Monday and Tuesday . With 60-61 for BOS and valleys. Either way.. a nice but short lived break from this endless summer 

So you’re saying day after day mid 70s after the cool down?   

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Nothing like a SVR Watch in mid-October.

4BC01962-2965-48D0-9440-5C65A8A676B7.gif.215c821a2b417893d55b328954a6459a.gif

  The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
     Far western Connecticut
     Far western Massachusetts
     Eastern New York
     Northeast Pennsylvania
     Vermont

   * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 1235 PM
     until 700 PM EDT.

   * Primary threats include...
     Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75
       mph possible
     A tornado or two possible

   SUMMARY...A thin, low-topped convective line should intensify as it
   spreads east across eastern New York into western New England, as
   well as possibly across northeast Pennsylvania. A brief tornado
   threat is anticipated across parts of the Champlain and Upper Hudson
   Valleys.

   The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55
   statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles north northwest
   of Burlington VT to 30 miles south southwest of Monticello NY. For a
   complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
   update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

 

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Just based on experience this feels like a ribbon-echo squall thing today.  

Low lightning producing, mid altitude tops sending out .33" in 5 minute gray air rains. Flicker of lightning is down the line but most just get the pulsed tree tilter wind and rain froth.   Good to catch-up de-leafing to climo.  Maybe singling out who doesn't get to watch the ALCS because a rancid oak's laying 'cross their neighborhood's trunk line.    

 

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Cold front made it thru snowshoe wv 44f there 

I have watched the real estate rental market very closely for last 18 months and anything available on that plateau @ snowshoe has been gobbled up fast . Have been thinking of grabbing one ..for investment . Last year they were 60-70K for 1Br , and 90-105 K for 2 bedroom w approx 500$ month HOA fees. The 1 Br’s get 125-225 per nite (depending on season ) and the 2 Br’s get 175-375. And they fill up fast watching VRBO. That is an exceptional amount of rental income you can get for the price of those units . They also happen to be twice as high as any in Eastern USA as they are *at top of mountain (4800’). Several of the buildings spanning the mountain top plateau ..have nice amenities, pool, jacuzzi, Starbucks , restaurant  etc (like a little village)

Even if you used a third party rental management company you would make money and the 1 Br’s /2Br’s are up 20% YOY in price if you owned and decided to sell 

 

 

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