October Discussion: Bring the Frost-Hold the Snow

[powderfreak]

54 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Just awful. It makes me angrier and angrier everytime I think of it. All part of the changing climate I guess. NNE peaks in Late Oct and SNE Novie 

I know you are just trolling at this point but you should take a NNE fall foliage tour in late October and tell us all how vibrant it is .

On an aside, a friend and I looked at some past falls.  We are definitely within a week or less of the past 20 years.

This was 2008 first snow at Stowe on October 1st and the photos were a LOT greener than it is right now.

 

 

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

It’s a lot of Onshore flow. So mostly warmer night mins. Gets colder out west into western Canada and AK. When that happens, we mild. 

Yeah... thumbing through the runs, the EPS has warmer than normal heights from D3 to the end of the run, but idiosyncrasies in the flow structure itself doesn't lend very well to warmth on the skin.  It may be just like you said, it may be elevated "relative" DP on SE/E flow nights, and days held down to the 60s. 

[Typhoon Tip]

Very similar to a late April/May behavior...with Sunday trying so hard to warm up, but then a BD cuts under and the continental warmth instead curls up through the Lakes and Ontario, while NYC-BOS get hosed.   Maybe in a spatial-conceptual sense it's like passing the circulation back off summer and through transition season favors that behavior. 

00z GFS Wed and Thursday looks like utopia weather.  

[powderfreak]

31 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

LOL

The thing with DIT is the projection of his thoughts in his backyard to all areas.  If it’s dewey there, it’s dewey everywhere.  Cutter melting his snow?  Melt it all to CAR. Drought?  It must be regionwide.

The leaves are certainly behind last year but that’s because there was zero water in the ground, people worrying about their wells and stuff.  If you have to worry about well water you can bet the trees aren’t having fun either, shut ‘em down early.

But if you take two decades of foliage and average them, it’s definitely within a week of where it should be.  Shocking too, as most of it has to do with solar and we know how much the sun angle varies from year to year lol.

[dendrite]

13 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

But if you take two decades of foliage and average them, it’s definitely within a week of where it should be.  Shocking too, as most of it has to do with solar and we know how much the sun angle varies from year to year lol.

Solar doesn't explain the variation in the region though. The solar is the same in the higher terrain as it is in the lower elevations, but obviously we all know 2kft is going to peak well before 500ft. So I think solar is the main reason they change in the first place, but weather conditions explain the variation we see from year to year.

[Typhoon Tip]

25 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

The thing with DIT is the projection of his thoughts in his backyard to all areas.  If it’s dewey there, it’s dewey everywhere.  Cutter melting his snow?  Melt it all to CAR. Drought?  It must be regionwide.

The leaves are certainly behind last year but that’s because there was zero water in the ground, people worrying about their wells and stuff.  If you have to worry about well water you can bet the trees aren’t having fun either, shut ‘em down early.

But if you take two decades of foliage and average them, it’s definitely within a week of where it should be.  Shocking too, as most of it has to do with solar and we know how much the sun angle varies from year to year lol.

Is that really why, though? 

I read an interesting assessment article that addressed why some species went almost a full month earlier than normal last year.  That was certainly true here N-central Mass, but spoke about the Great Lakes and southern Ontario as well.   Anyway, they were discussing that the growth season was "too efficient" in sugar maple species, and no coincidence ...the maples around my town also went by Sept 20... I had lived here for 8 years prior and every year, the big canopied maples peaked around October 10.  Anyway, the 'too efficient' model:   Trees can only redirect so much solar energy into chemistry and life, and once that quota/limitation is reached, certain 'chemical machinery' in the production/sustaining of green pigmentation halts. 

That actually 'intuitively' matches what happened at least imby and surroundings - so take fwiw.   But many trees that were patented saffron orange in pallet were not only three weeks early, they turned yellow instead. 

You may be entirely right about hydration playing a role, too.. but I wonder if there was other factors.    Also, the Oaks were as dependable as old oaks.  Despite all these other observations, ..those didn't deviate.  I mean nothing seems able to deviate the timing of that particular species.  Cosmic Ray Bursts that incinerate the Ozone layer and irradiate all life off the face of the Earth ...  oaks trees will change at the same time.

[powderfreak]

16 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Solar doesn't explain the variation in the region though. The solar is the same in the higher terrain as it is in the lower elevations, but obviously we all know 2kft is going to peak well before 500ft. So I think solar is the main reason they change in the first place, but weather conditions explain the variation we see from year to year.

Yeah I guess I look at it all as the solar is going to fight the rising climate.  You can’t carry green leaves into late October no matter how hot it is at this latitude in NNE.  It could be 90F straight through and they’d be changing.

[Typhoon Tip]

Mid/next week depends on the placement of the surface high.   Euro camps wants to situated its ballast N of BUF-BOS axis by enough distance to imply flags wobbling GOM "warmth" all the way to NYC.    GFS' camp on the other hand situates the high pressure more directly overhead.  That would suppress said flag wobbling and allow first half of the days to get relatively warm before more of a sbreeze boundary.   It's all going to change, but taking the overnight verbatim. 

On a personal note, ... I'm not feelin' winter this year.  I just don't want it. I think I may be relocating to Arizona, and finding an off-grid up among the sage and tumble weeds, so I can spend out my pointless existence utterly alone like your God is forcing on my reality anyway. 

[powderfreak]

27 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Is that really why, though? 

I read an interesting assessment article that addressed why some species went almost a full month earlier than normal last year.  That was certainly true here N-central Mass, but spoke about the Great Lakes and southern Ontario as well.   Anyway, they were discussing that the growth season was "too efficient" in sugar maple species, and no coincidence ...the maples around my town also went by Sept 20... I had lived here for 8 years prior and every year, the big canopied maples peaked around October 10.  Anyway, the 'too efficient' model:   Trees can only redirect so much solar energy into chemistry and life, and once that quota/limitation is reached, certain 'chemical machinery' in the production/sustaining of green pigmentation halts. 

That actually 'intuitively' matches what happened at least imby and surroundings - so take fwiw.   But many trees that were patented saffron orange in pallet were not only three weeks early, they turned yellow instead. 

You may be entirely right about hydration playing a role, too.. but I wonder if there was other factors.    Also, the Oaks were as dependable as old oaks.  Despite all these other observations, ..those didn't deviate.  I mean nothing seems able to deviate the timing of that particular species.  Cosmic Ray Bursts that incinerate the Ozone layer and irradiate all life off the face of the Earth ...  oaks trees will change at the same time.

I guess I was more thinking lawns were dead last summer by August in drought… ground vegetation wilted not long after that, and then I’d figure the trees cut their losses for the year early and went dormant.

What was the drought situation in Great Lakes last summer?  Similar to parts of Northeast?

Obviously there are a lot of factors, I guess my point was there are extenuating factors but I probably have better photo documentation than most folks and it happens to end within a general 7-10 day period yearly.

Theres much more variation on the front end of fall foliage, but even in the warmest years it hits a point where it falls off a cliff and changes extremely rapidly.  I always assumed that was the solar input.

Like sometimes it’s a long foliage season with almost two peaks between Sept 15-Oct 15 here… other times it’s a quick acute change Oct 5-15.  But after say Oct 15th, for whatever reason (solar?) it’s very hard to carry a full forest of leaves at this latitude.  Even if they just go golden brown and fall off.  There’s a much sharper back end to it IMO, the variation is more on the front end.

[Ginx snewx]

2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I guess I was more thinking lawns were dead last summer by August in drought… ground vegetation wilted not long after that, and then I’d figure the trees cut their losses for the year early and went dormant.

What was the drought situation in Great Lakes last summer?  Similar to parts of Northeast?

Obviously there are a lot of factors, I guess my point was there are extenuating factors but I probably have better photo documentation than most folks and it happens to end within a general 7-10 day period yearly.

Theres much more variation on the front end of fall foliage, but even in the warmest years it hits a point where it falls off a cliff and changes extremely rapidly.  I always assumed that was the solar input.  Like sometimes it’s Sept 15-Oct 15 here… other times it’s like Oct 5-15 and it all happens very quickly.  But after say Oct 15th, for whatever reason (solar?) it’s very hard to carry a full forest of leaves at this latitude.

It is solar. Its all about photosynthesis. Dry or wet warm or cooler hastening or slows the change, changes the vibrancy but only within a couple of weeks. Maples went yellow and all the other trees are dull green which means change is on the way.

[Cyclone-68]

26 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Mid/next week depends on the placement of the surface high.   Euro camps wants to situated its ballast N of BUF-BOS axis by enough distance to imply flags wobbling GOM "warmth" all the way to NYC.    GFS' camp on the other hand situates the high pressure more directly overhead.  That would suppress said flag wobbling and allow first half of the days to get relatively warm before more of a sbreeze boundary.   It's all going to change, but taking the overnight verbatim. 

On a personal note, ... I'm not feelin' winter this year.  I just don't want it. I think I may be relocating to Arizona, and finding an off-grid up among the sage and tumble weeds, so I can spend out my pointless existence utterly alone like your God is forcing on my reality anyway. 

Arizona has some kick arse thunderstorms during the monsoon season at least 

[Damage In Tolland]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Hope you get swept this weekend 

So much anger. Grab a Coney Island wiener and lick the mustard gently 

[BrianW]

52 for the low and already up to 66 here. Hoping we can pull an 80 here on Sunday and a few more this month.  Neighbor just said her dock thermometer was at 73. 

 

 

 

[Ginx snewx]

Not much change over time for first and last 31 at ORH or first and last 1 inch of snow. Red line is regression line.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

36 when I left for work at 545

[Damage In Tolland]

30 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Not much change over time for first and last 31 at ORH or first and last 1 inch of snow. Red line is regression line.

Are things still on track for that cane hit you mentioned a few weeks ago? I think it was mid Oct

[STILL N OF PIKE]

He has recently become the most confused poster in SNE , always befuddled by responses . We hope he sees clearly soon . Pray for the Rev.

[Ginx snewx]

29 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Are things still on track for that cane hit you mentioned a few weeks ago? I think it was mid Oct

I was looking at the Oct 13rd timeframe for a storm. We shall see

[Chrisrotary12]

4 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

About as likely as the Mets in the post season. Same with the Sox.  

Go Mariners

[CoastalWx]

1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

Not much change over time for first and last 31 at ORH or first and last 1 inch of snow. Red line is regression line.

Isn't that encompassing two different areas where obs were taken?

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Isn't that encompassing two different areas where obs were taken?

Yes it is. For the airport alone, need to start the year at 1948. Though I'm not sure how different the numbers would be for frost/freeze. The older site radiated much better which probably produced several freezes when the airport wouldn't have gotten them. The older site actually had a slight cold bias vs airport on low temps. The high temp differences were more noticeable though.

[ineedsnow]

27 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

I was looking at the Oct 13rd timeframe for a storm. We shall see

my first day of vacation  we pray

[MJO812]

30 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

I was looking at the Oct 13rd timeframe for a storm. We shall see

I'm tracking it

[CoastalWx]

7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yes it is. For the airport alone, need to start the year at 1948. Though I'm not sure how different the numbers would be for frost/freeze. The older site radiated much better which probably produced several freezes when the airport wouldn't have gotten them. The older site actually had a slight cold bias vs airport on low temps. The high temp differences were more noticeable though.

Which reminds me. I have noticed it's a little warm..at least IMO.

 

[chris21]

3 hours ago, powderfreak said:

I guess I was more thinking lawns were dead last summer by August in drought… ground vegetation wilted not long after that, and then I’d figure the trees cut their losses for the year early and went dormant.

What was the drought situation in Great Lakes last summer?  Similar to parts of Northeast?

Obviously there are a lot of factors, I guess my point was there are extenuating factors but I probably have better photo documentation than most folks and it happens to end within a general 7-10 day period yearly.

Theres much more variation on the front end of fall foliage, but even in the warmest years it hits a point where it falls off a cliff and changes extremely rapidly.  I always assumed that was the solar input.

Like sometimes it’s a long foliage season with almost two peaks between Sept 15-Oct 15 here… other times it’s a quick acute change Oct 5-15.  But after say Oct 15th, for whatever reason (solar?) it’s very hard to carry a full forest of leaves at this latitude.  Even if they just go golden brown and fall off.  There’s a much sharper back end to it IMO, the variation is more on the front end.

By October 20th, even the leaves in the high elevation areas in the Allegheny mountain region of West Virginia are long gone. Already have had many nights in the upper 20s and lower 30s out that way. Can’t imagine leaves would still be out in NNE.

[klw]

5 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

The Sandy redux on the 6z GFS is cute.

We are in that time of year when the GFS transitions from ending every run with a CAT 5 threatening the coast to it having a HECS at hour 378 in each run.  It is as much a sign of the start of fall as having leaf peepers standing on my front lawn to take pictures of our maples when we lived in Peacham.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Gotta go back 3 years to when TAN didn't have a low in the 30s in Sept. Sept 18th is mean date for <40F.  Oct 1st, this AM, was the 1st this season, so about 2 weeks behind.

[MJO812]

My birthday next weekend 

I want a gift from everyone 

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just now, Baroclinic Zone said:

Gotta go back 3 years to when TAN didn't have a low in the 30s in Sept. Sept 18th is mean date for <40F.  Oct 1st, this AM, was the 1st this season, so about 2 weeks behind.

Oct 7 is mean 1st <32F

[tamarack]

4 hours ago, dendrite said:

Solar doesn't explain the variation in the region though. The solar is the same in the higher terrain as it is in the lower elevations, but obviously we all know 2kft is going to peak well before 500ft. So I think solar is the main reason they change in the first place, but weather conditions explain the variation we see from year to year.

Its natural selection, thanks to genetics that produce different phenology within a species.  As climate has warmed and cooled in the past, conditions in which, say, a sugar maple can survive and regenerate seedlings move up/down or north/south.  A cooling climate would cause late frost damage to the maples which leaf out earliest, leaving the later leaf-outs (which are typical early droppers as well) to take over that site.  A warming climate would allow the long-growing-season varieties to move up/north as their extra days of growth would make them more competitive.  Trees grow where they can compete well and produce viable seed, and time sorts out which varieties are best suited to which site characteristics.