Typhoon Tip Posted October 10, 2021 Share Posted October 10, 2021 Depends which ensemble cluster/source one adheres to - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 10, 2021 Share Posted October 10, 2021 31 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: 12/16/07. That storm will live in infamy. I had a 3-6” forecast back then (and I was a little more bullish than other outlets)...only took about 3 hours to get obliterated. Ripping fatties too in that. That was fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted October 10, 2021 Share Posted October 10, 2021 58 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: That model sucks lately. It's taking a dump on itself with the so called rain today. Easy to toss it. 47r3 T-2 days... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 10, 2021 Share Posted October 10, 2021 3 minutes ago, It's Always Sunny said: 47r3 T-2 days... We will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 10, 2021 Share Posted October 10, 2021 14 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Plus I generally don’t like paying for anything that I can do. Well you can do many things. If it is enjoyable doing it makes sense. If it’s a pain and not how you would want to spend your spare time, ask yourself the value of your time. Ultimately it comes down to affordability. If I could afford it I’d have a limo take me to my private jet waiting on the tarmac but I can’t. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted October 10, 2021 Share Posted October 10, 2021 2 minutes ago, weathafella said: Well you can do many things. If it is enjoyable doing it makes sense. If it’s a pain and not how you would want to spend your spare time, ask yourself the value of your time. Ultimately it comes down to affordability. If I could afford it I’d have a limo take me to my private jet waiting on the tarmac but I can’t. Sometimes people who grew up poor, self-sufficient, and blue collar have trouble “bothering” someone else with the work, even for payment. I know I had that issue for a long time and still do sometimes. I have to keep telling myself these folks are looking for the work and want to do it so they can make some money. It’s not a burden on them to ask them to do it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 10, 2021 Share Posted October 10, 2021 64 and raw here in Brooklyn , NY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 10, 2021 Share Posted October 10, 2021 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: We will see. Moist physics FTW? I'm still trying to find numbers on it myself, but I've seen a few modelers drooling over that specific improvement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 10, 2021 Share Posted October 10, 2021 35 minutes ago, PhineasC said: Sometimes people who grew up poor, self-sufficient, and blue collar have trouble “bothering” someone else with the work, even for payment. I know I had that issue for a long time and still do sometimes. I have to keep telling myself these folks are looking for the work and want to do it so they can make some money. It’s not a burden on them to ask them to do it. I think even people who didn't grow up in poverty have that same problem. Human nature to want to do something that you can instead of having someone else do it for you. I do like the logic though, ha, let me do you a favor and let you rake my yard for money. It's totally true, keeps the economy going, it just sounds funny. Could've paid someone to put in new floors this summer but instead did it myself with a friend. There's some aspect of something being fun to learn a new project too vs. paying someone to do a routine item that's just boring AF . Also an age factor I'd imagine too. My father now pays for a lot of things he used to do... once past 50 years old it seemed he started paying more and more for random things he never would've let someone go near when we were young kids and he was in his 30s/40s. Now past 60 he just wants to golf and pays for most mundane things. Low of 49F last night... god damn it is mild at night. These departures are insane. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 10, 2021 Share Posted October 10, 2021 16 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Moist physics FTW? I'm still trying to find numbers on it myself, but I've seen a few modelers drooling over that specific improvement. I mean everyone gets excited because it nails the PWAT over UOOO, but misses a major hurricane in the Caribbean. Yay upgrade! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted October 10, 2021 Share Posted October 10, 2021 @dendrite Did you feel/hear a big bang around 45 mins ago? Any idea what it was? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 10, 2021 Share Posted October 10, 2021 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: I mean everyone gets excited because it nails the PWAT over UOOO, but misses a major hurricane in the Caribbean. Yay upgrade! In theory ditching some of the wonky diabatic heating related solutions could improve synoptics. But if it doesn't snow in my backyard we toss in favor of the Canadian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 10, 2021 Share Posted October 10, 2021 3 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: In theory ditching some of the wonky diabatic heating related solutions could improve synoptics. But if it doesn't snow in my backyard we toss in favor of the Canadian. I didn’t look at the specifics yet. Is that one of the results? That’s great then. However, how does that help the tropics which rely on that for development? Also, I saw how it had a bias for high PWATs. It went nuts in TX for that TC a few weeks ago. I didn’t realize how bad that was, but that argues in your argument about diabatic craziness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 10, 2021 Share Posted October 10, 2021 10 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: In theory ditching some of the wonky diabatic heating related solutions could improve synoptics. But if it doesn't snow in my backyard we toss in favor of the Canadian. Shoveling GGEM snow has been a pastime of mine for the last decade or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 10, 2021 Share Posted October 10, 2021 2 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Shoveling GGEM snow has been a pastime of mine for the last decade or so. That and the ARW. But I think you’ve been ok last several years overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 10, 2021 Share Posted October 10, 2021 23 minutes ago, powderfreak said: I think even people who didn't grow up in poverty have that same problem. Human nature to want to do something that you can instead of having someone else do it for you. I do like the logic though, ha, let me do you a favor and let you rake my yard for money. It's totally true, keeps the economy going, it just sounds funny. Could've paid someone to put in new floors this summer but instead did it myself with a friend. There's some aspect of something being fun to learn a new project too vs. paying someone to do a routine item that's just boring AF . Also an age factor I'd imagine too. My father now pays for a lot of things he used to do... once past 50 years old it seemed he started paying more and more for random things he never would've let someone go near when we were young kids and he was in his 30s/40s. Now past 60 he just wants to golf and pays for most mundane things. Low of 49F last night... god damn it is mild at night. These departures are insane. Bingo! I remember putting in a major system at age 32.....took 14 hours and I asked myself why..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 10, 2021 Share Posted October 10, 2021 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I didn’t look at the specifics yet. Is that one of the results? That’s great then. However, how does that help the tropics which rely on that for development? Also, I saw how it had a bias for high PWATs. It went nuts in TX for that TC a few weeks ago. I didn’t realize how bad that was, but that argues in your argument about diabatic craziness. My problem has been finding info on exactly what the scheme is to improve the moist physics. Their little scorecard thing shows some subtle North America improvement beyond 144 hours in the heights and MSLP over the control. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 10, 2021 Share Posted October 10, 2021 1 hour ago, weathafella said: Well you can do many things. If it is enjoyable doing it makes sense. If it’s a pain and not how you would want to spend your spare time, ask yourself the value of your time. Ultimately it comes down to affordability. If I could afford it I’d have a limo take me to my private jet waiting on the tarmac but I can’t. Exactly.. as long as the money is available it makes sense to have others do the difficult chores such as leaves .. especially if you have nowhere to put them. Why on Earth anyone would rake vs blow them and create so much more work I will never understand. And then if you also have to bag them? Spend a couple hundred bucks and either get a blower of have a landscaper come do fall cleanup. To each their own of course, but dropping a few Hundy on a blower more than pays for itself in one season. Time is money. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 10, 2021 Share Posted October 10, 2021 2 hours ago, It's Always Sunny said: 47r3 T-2 days... uh what dies this mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 10, 2021 Share Posted October 10, 2021 20 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: uh what dies this mean? That’s his AmWx password. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted October 10, 2021 Share Posted October 10, 2021 30 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: uh what dies this mean? It's the new ECMWF deterministic model set for release in 2 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted October 10, 2021 Share Posted October 10, 2021 2 hours ago, PhineasC said: Sometimes people who grew up poor, self-sufficient, and blue collar have trouble “bothering” someone else with the work, even for payment. I know I had that issue for a long time and still do sometimes. I have to keep telling myself these folks are looking for the work and want to do it so they can make some money. It’s not a burden on them to ask them to do it. Nothing to do with growing up “poor”. Many people enjoy the work when young and when they get old and have kids and other obligations which don’t give them the time they pay someone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 10, 2021 Share Posted October 10, 2021 13 minutes ago, psv88 said: Nothing to do with growing up “poor”. Many people enjoy the work when young and when they get old and have kids and other obligations which don’t give them the time they pay someone. Some of these guys are hacks too. If I’m paying 500+ bucks for a cleanup, it better be licked clean. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 10, 2021 Share Posted October 10, 2021 49 minutes ago, It's Always Sunny said: It's the new ECMWF deterministic model set for release in 2 days. Oh...ha! T "MINUS" 2 days... Heh, I didn't even know there was a new version coming out. Interesting... knee-jerk suspicion: just in the nick of time for the cold-season debut. It's probably going to be under unbearable scrutiny Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 10, 2021 Share Posted October 10, 2021 7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Some of these guys are hacks too. If I’m paying 500+ bucks for a cleanup, it better be licked clean. Ha ha... right right. I noticed a proliferation of these "J.J. landscaper" vehicles began around the time of the advent of back back and walk behind leaf blowers. It's a 'rocket science' gig achievement while baked - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted October 10, 2021 Share Posted October 10, 2021 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: Oh...ha! T "MINUS" 2 days... Heh, I didn't even know there was a new version coming out. Interesting... knee-jerk suspicion: just in the nick of time for the cold-season debut. It's probably going to be under unbearable scrutiny I can already envision the New England forum scrutinizing where snow gradients orient themselves compared to the former (if it is still publicly available for a bit). It would probably be wise to keep it running through the winter to see how it verifies even if it isn't expected to be as accurate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted October 10, 2021 Share Posted October 10, 2021 "Moist physics" will be an oft used term here lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 10, 2021 Share Posted October 10, 2021 7 minutes ago, It's Always Sunny said: "Moist physics" will be an oft used term here lol At least it is somewhere ... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 10, 2021 Share Posted October 10, 2021 2 hours ago, bobbutts said: @dendrite Did you feel/hear a big bang around 45 mins ago? Any idea what it was? What time exactly was that? I don’t recall anything. I’ve been gone for the last 90 mins, but I was probably home when you heard the bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 10, 2021 Share Posted October 10, 2021 Here’s the 47r3 webinar. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now