J.Spin Posted October 8, 2021 Share Posted October 8, 2021 On 10/5/2021 at 3:16 PM, ORH_wxman said: Only if you go by percentage. Standard deviation takes care of this problem. On 10/5/2021 at 3:38 PM, ORH_wxman said: Yeah it would be more useful if the community embraced standard devs. Like “this looks like roughly a 1 sigma above normal snowfall winter for BOS to BTV”....one sigma for BOS is prob like 150% of normal while in Stowe it might be 115%. On 10/5/2021 at 5:06 PM, powderfreak said: Then again that doesn’t necessarily flow off the tongue in a WxBell or other vendor seasonal forecast for the public.. “what’s a sigma? Is that a blizzard?” I do think based on what I remember from JSpin that percentage is about right for the higher snowfall zones per SD. And 1 below being like 85%. I suspect that ± 15% you’re mentioning is probably in the range of what 1 σ is for our area. Unfortunately, that highly anomalous 2015-2016 season, with its -2.38 σ deviation in snowfall still throws quite a wrench into a relatively small data set of just 15 seasons. So 1 σ is at 22.5% in the data set currently, but it keeps being whittled away by ~1% per year as the more “typical” seasons stack up. It was actually up in the 26-27% range after that season first hit. If that anomalous season is omitted, 1 σ is at 16.9% for the data set. Assuming that lower variance is closer to reality, the blockbuster-style years of 200”+ of snowfall are going to be relatively infrequent (only about once a decade or so), but ~70% of seasons at our site should be in the 135” – 190” range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianW Posted October 8, 2021 Share Posted October 8, 2021 1 hour ago, CT Valley Snowman said: Down in BDR today it's too warm it feels unnatural. Welcome to the tropics. 77 here under full sun and 80 looks possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted October 8, 2021 Share Posted October 8, 2021 Summer time continues… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jeff Grann Posted October 8, 2021 Share Posted October 8, 2021 13 minutes ago, BrianW said: Welcome to the tropics. 77 here under full sun and 80 looks possible. Yes. I'm sure you will enjoy daily 80 degree weather all winter long like Havana. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted October 8, 2021 Share Posted October 8, 2021 72 and low humidity w a breeze Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted October 8, 2021 Share Posted October 8, 2021 Top 10er today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted October 8, 2021 Share Posted October 8, 2021 2 hours ago, NorEastermass128 said: Summer time continues… ...Hit the beach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted October 8, 2021 Share Posted October 8, 2021 Ah, peak leaf color and beautiful weather in the north country means getting tailgated by a dude in a minivan with NY plates angrily weaving behind and then passing me as I go 10 over the speed limit. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 8, 2021 Share Posted October 8, 2021 We doorin’ down to 63 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 8, 2021 Share Posted October 8, 2021 59 minutes ago, PhineasC said: Ah, peak leaf color and beautiful weather in the north country means getting tailgated by a dude in a minivan with NY plates angrily weaving behind and then passing me as I go 10 over the speed limit. Sounds about right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 8, 2021 Share Posted October 8, 2021 Weeklies still look more Nino-like to me. Rather active late month into November. Temps probably averaging a little AN. Lots of Davis Straits ridging. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 8, 2021 Share Posted October 8, 2021 10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Weeklies still look more Nino-like to me. Rather active late month into November. Temps probably averaging a little AN. Lots of Davis Straits ridging. Any SE screamer Andria Doria stemwinders on the charts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 8, 2021 Share Posted October 8, 2021 14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Weeklies still look more Nino-like to me. Rather active late month into November. Temps probably averaging a little AN. Lots of Davis Straits ridging. Here come the weeklies posts Loving it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 8, 2021 Share Posted October 8, 2021 75-80 all next week . Endless summer right thru Helloween 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted October 8, 2021 Share Posted October 8, 2021 5 hours ago, tamarack said: We had one from a red oak (the big acorns) smack the windshield as we drove by at 45 mph - no damage but quite startling. My neighbor had his car dinged all over so he had them all cut down, they can be a PIA. Deer love them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted October 8, 2021 Share Posted October 8, 2021 2 hours ago, PhineasC said: Ah, peak leaf color and beautiful weather in the north country means getting tailgated by a dude in a minivan with NY plates angrily weaving behind and then passing me as I go 10 over the speed limit. 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Sounds about right. My (future) wife Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted October 8, 2021 Share Posted October 8, 2021 Embrace the warm, wonderful, boring weather. Just how I like my October’s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted October 8, 2021 Share Posted October 8, 2021 3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: My (future) wife Good evening WxW007. I know that the Reaper is busy sharpening the scythe and the Sweeper is still on guard with the broom but now, thanks to the observation and experience of Phineas C, we now have the ‘Beeper’. As always …… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 8, 2021 Share Posted October 8, 2021 7 hours ago, kdxken said: It looks months behind. 70% green in the CT valley as endless summeh continues. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted October 8, 2021 Share Posted October 8, 2021 4 minutes ago, rclab said: Good evening WxW007. I know that the Reaper is busy sharpening the scythe and the Sweeper is still on guard with the broom but now, thanks to the observation and experience of Phineas C, we now have the ‘Beeper’. As always …… It’s insane. I feel like I’m drag racing every time I drive with her. All this time together and she hasn’t changed a bit. Those city people drive like maniacs, among other things. Makes for a hell of a Midwest storm chase driver though lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 8, 2021 Share Posted October 8, 2021 13 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: 70% green in the CT valley as endless summeh continues. You live there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 8, 2021 Share Posted October 8, 2021 20 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Embrace the warm, wonderful, boring weather. Just how I like my October’s. It’s going to prolong leaf cleanups up to and likely past T-giving . Last year we were done about Nov 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 8, 2021 Share Posted October 8, 2021 3 hours ago, PhineasC said: Ah, peak leaf color and beautiful weather in the north country means getting tailgated by a dude in a minivan with NY plates angrily weaving behind and then passing me as I go 10 over the speed limit. Man you are lucky, or he just picked up his meth. Every visitor here goes exactly 50% of whatever the posted speed limit is. I’d love for them to be in such a rush. I’m about to make a sign for my SUV that says “Congrat’s you’ve exceeded 30mph. The posted limit is 50. Next let’s try to go over 40.” Luckily in VT you can legally pass on double yellows. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted October 8, 2021 Share Posted October 8, 2021 24 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: It’s going to prolong leaf cleanups up to and likely past T-giving . Last year we were done about Nov 10 Maybe leaf blowing oak leaves Christmas week off of the frozen white landscape? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brentrich Posted October 8, 2021 Share Posted October 8, 2021 Winter is coming next weekend, get ready folks! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 8, 2021 Share Posted October 8, 2021 6 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Maybe leaf blowing oak leaves Christmas week off of the frozen white landscape? You only have white pines.. so for you it doesn’t really matter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted October 8, 2021 Share Posted October 8, 2021 13 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: You only have white pines.. so for you it doesn’t really matter True but one massive oak that retains leaves forever and a some crappy Norway Maples that hopefully shed soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 8, 2021 Share Posted October 8, 2021 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: It’s going to prolong leaf cleanups up to and likely past T-giving . Last year we were done about Nov 10 We used to go to Woodstock for Thanksgiving growing up and I remember several years raking leaves all day at my grandmother’s while food is being made. Brings back memories, not always fun ha. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 9, 2021 Share Posted October 9, 2021 10 minutes ago, powderfreak said: We used to go to Woodstock for Thanksgiving growing up and I remember several years raking leaves all day at my grandmother’s while food is being made. Brings back memories, not always fun ha. As a kid.. I raked . Thankfully in this era . Backpack leaf blowers and blowers on wheels have replaced rakes. I can’t imagine why anyone would rake leaves by choice in 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 9, 2021 Share Posted October 9, 2021 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: As a kid.. I raked . Thankfully in this era . Backpack leaf blowers and blowers on wheels have replaced rakes. I can’t imagine why anyone would rake leaves by choice in 2021 Absolutely. Backpack leaf blower was game changing. Can just push a whole yard of leaves into the woods with a blower in a couple hours. As a kid I loved mowing the lawn but raking was like going to the dentist. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now