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October Discussion: Bring the Frost-Hold the Snow


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5 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Maybe our NNE crowd…?

Meh.  October snows make for beautiful pictures when there is still bright foliage but they don't do much for me.  As we get into November, they get more meaningful.  By the time December starts, I want the ground to start getting covered.

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59 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Not sure why Kevin has a fetish to ruin weekends with rain. 

With this talk of rain ruining the weekend I went and ran through all the models and have no idea what you guys are even discussing?  Is the thinking that storm comes further north?  Looked dry on the whole if you average the 3 days out.  Maybe some showers on Sunday afternoon/evening south?

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Just now, powderfreak said:

With this talk of rain ruining the weekend I went and ran through all the models and have no idea what you guys are even discussing?  Is the thinking that storm comes further north?  Looked dry on the whole if you average the 3 days out.  Maybe some showers on Sunday afternoon/evening south?

The euro guidance (especially 6z runs) is trying to screw up late Sunday into Monday morning. But even that is mostly a night event. All other guidance is dry. So if one assumes some sort of compromise, my guess is maybe a some shwrs near srn areas..but I don't buy a soaker. 

 

Hey if I'm wrong, bump this post. I'll somehow move on.

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28 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The euro guidance (especially 6z runs) is trying to screw up late Sunday into Monday morning. But even that is mostly a night event. All other guidance is dry. So if one assumes some sort of compromise, my guess is maybe a some shwrs near srn areas..but I don't buy a soaker. 

 

Hey if I'm wrong, bump this post. I'll somehow move on.

it's the 84 hr NAM but it stalls the low off the SC/NC coast so nothing at all.

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1 hour ago, PhineasC said:

I would take some snow (always), but it's pretty meaningless until mid-to-late November here, which is when more consistent snow cover can start.

Cold is more important given the snowmaking at the resorts. I hope cold starts to set in by early November. Still no frost here. I had mosquitoes landing on me yesterday.

No frost here, yet, so just passed Oct. 6, 2011 as the latest 1st frost here.  
Until 2018-19 I'd have agreed with dryslot that Novie snow was good only for the deer chasers.  In those two year continuous cover began on 11/10 and 11/11 respectively, and with short cloudy days some white cover mediates the early dark.

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The weird thing is how long it takes to mix out this time of year.  It's been full sun now for a while and the valleys are still "cool" relatively speaking.  Many stations at elevation are in the mid/upper 60s... but the river bottoms are stuck in the upper 50s.  A month ago it would be in the 70s down there at noon.

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See it also over by Phin's area... "Broadacres Farm" in Randolph at 1,650ft is 68F and Alex's area is 64-67F while all the stations down near the Moore Reservoir are in the 50s (one as low as 55F).

So weird to have the inverted temps last past noon even with sunshine.  Mixing takes forever this time of year.

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