CoastalWx Posted October 5, 2021 Share Posted October 5, 2021 21 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said: I mean climo argues that this should be the case.....you'd have to look at % of normal to determine if was a "S of the pike" or "N of the pike" winter. Yeah I'm more referring to where the anomalies might be. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 5, 2021 Share Posted October 5, 2021 I hope these NAM metrics are right about tomorrow and Thursday ... Could 72 to 75 with lowered DPs under an open sky. Couple of top 10 days unfortunately in the middle of the week, but we take what we can get. After this dead air clammy crawlspace coffin - 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 5, 2021 Share Posted October 5, 2021 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah I'm more referring to where the anomalies might be. And the further north you go the harder it gets to see bigger anomalies too. Metfan can get 30% above normal a lot easier than those up north. Or at least can do it on a couple Hail Mary passes timed nicely even in a shit winter, whereas up north you need a solid sustained pattern all season long. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 5, 2021 Share Posted October 5, 2021 44 minutes ago, powderfreak said: And the further north you go the harder it gets to see bigger anomalies too. Metfan can get 30% above normal a lot easier than those up north. Or at least can do it on a couple Hail Mary passes timed nicely even in a shit winter, whereas up north you need a solid sustained pattern all season long. I got 38 inches last winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 5, 2021 Share Posted October 5, 2021 Stein cancel on the Euro? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 5, 2021 Share Posted October 5, 2021 45 minutes ago, powderfreak said: And the further north you go the harder it gets to see bigger anomalies too. Metfan can get 30% above normal a lot easier than those up north. Or at least can do it on a couple Hail Mary passes timed nicely even in a shit winter, whereas up north you need a solid sustained pattern all season long. Only if you go by percentage. Standard deviation takes care of this problem. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 5, 2021 Share Posted October 5, 2021 6 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Stein cancel on the Euro? Wet pattern continues unabated 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 5, 2021 Share Posted October 5, 2021 Most of last years high totals were who sat under the fire hose in Dec, Other then that, It was a rat up here for many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 5, 2021 Share Posted October 5, 2021 6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Only if you go by percentage. Standard deviation takes care of this problem. That's the one, thanks I always forget that. I always get tweaked when those Seasonal Forecasts come out with 125-150% of normal or whatever . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted October 5, 2021 Share Posted October 5, 2021 12 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Stein cancel on the Euro? lol. Drought? Who is even talking about drought? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted October 5, 2021 Share Posted October 5, 2021 19 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Only if you go by percentage. Standard deviation takes care of this problem. Probably a dumb question but how would you calculate SD for something like seasonal snowfall avg? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 5, 2021 Share Posted October 5, 2021 13 minutes ago, powderfreak said: That's the one, thanks I always forget that. I always get tweaked when those Seasonal Forecasts come out with 125-150% of normal or whatever . Yeah it would be more useful if the community embraced standard devs. Like “this looks like roughly a 1 sigma above normal snowfall winter for BOS to BTV”....one sigma for BOS is prob like 150% of normal while in Stowe it might be 115%. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 5, 2021 Share Posted October 5, 2021 50 minutes ago, powderfreak said: That's the one, thanks I always forget that. I always get tweaked when those Seasonal Forecasts come out with 125-150% of normal or whatever . Yeah so for MJO, I was thinking compared to an anomaly standpoint, maybe he's 1-2 SD below normal, and someone like Ray is 1SD above normal or a bit less. Don't quote me verbatim.....just saying as an example. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 5, 2021 Share Posted October 5, 2021 6 hours ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Unreal that I have 48" of precip since installing my Davis since it went online Jan 23rd. If I add TAN's precip up to that date, I am at 49.25". 61.98" is the highest annual total at TAN, from 2018. Well within reach with 3mo to go. Willington Ct and Andover are near 80 inches I am 73 ish 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 5, 2021 Share Posted October 5, 2021 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah it would be more useful if the community embraced standard devs. Like “this looks like roughly a 1 sigma above normal snowfall winter for BOS to BTV”....one sigma for BOS is prob like 150% of normal while in Stowe it might be 115%. Then again that doesn’t necessarily flow off the tongue in a WxBell or other vendor seasonal forecast for the public.. “what’s a sigma? Is that a blizzard?” I do think based on what I remember from JSpin that percentage is about right for the higher snowfall zones per SD. And 1 below being like 85%. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 5, 2021 Share Posted October 5, 2021 Mitch! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 5, 2021 Share Posted October 5, 2021 6 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: Software ^ what generates all charts silly boy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 5, 2021 Share Posted October 5, 2021 36 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Mitch! Red leaves will help mask anything else that’s red and leads to evidence. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted October 5, 2021 Share Posted October 5, 2021 70s for the foreseeable future. Definitely not Fall likeSent from my SM-G981U1 using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 5, 2021 Share Posted October 5, 2021 7 minutes ago, Lava Rock said: 70s for the foreseeable future. Definitely not Fall like Sent from my SM-G981U1 using Tapatalk Grass growing! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 5, 2021 Share Posted October 5, 2021 22 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Grass growing! @40/70 BenchmarkRay done mowing for season he says. Just rake hard to tear the tips of grass off? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 5, 2021 Share Posted October 5, 2021 2 hours ago, powderfreak said: Then again that doesn’t necessarily flow off the tongue in a WxBell or other vendor seasonal forecast for the public.. “what’s a sigma? Is that a blizzard?” I do think based on what I remember from JSpin that percentage is about right for the higher snowfall zones per SD. And 1 below being like 85%. Yeah nobody uses sigma so it sounds weird but if the met community started embracing it, then it would eventually sound normal. Problem is the percentage anomalies are just way too popular to abandon even though they aren’t super useful. They don’t tell us much without peaking at the baseline and variance (which standard deviation has covered). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 5, 2021 Share Posted October 5, 2021 Tooooorrrcchhhhh 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted October 6, 2021 Share Posted October 6, 2021 Maybe a beach day or two coming up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted October 6, 2021 Share Posted October 6, 2021 5 hours ago, Cold Miser said: lol. Drought? Who is even talking about drought? It’s been so wet down there that the meaning of Stein has been reduced to referring to a partly sunny afternoon in SNE. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted October 6, 2021 Share Posted October 6, 2021 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: Tooooorrrcchhhhh Keep it coming! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 6, 2021 Share Posted October 6, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 6, 2021 Share Posted October 6, 2021 2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: Tooooorrrcchhhhh God that looks perfect. Chamber Weather for as long as possible. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 6, 2021 Share Posted October 6, 2021 I want cold weather. Bring it on 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted October 6, 2021 Share Posted October 6, 2021 14 minutes ago, DotRat_Wx said: I want cold weather. Bring it on A least someone in New England does. Seems many up here should just move south and get it over with. You don't even need to go to FL. At my place in MD it will be 50-60 degrees and sunny most of December and then again by mid-February onwards most years. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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