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October Discussion: Bring the Frost-Hold the Snow


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I hope these NAM metrics are right about tomorrow and Thursday ...  Could 72 to 75 with lowered DPs under an open sky.   Couple of top 10 days unfortunately in the middle of the week, but we take what we can get.   After this dead air clammy crawlspace coffin -

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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah I'm more referring to where the anomalies might be.  

And the further north you go the harder it gets to see bigger anomalies too.

Metfan can get 30% above normal a lot easier than those up north.  Or at least can do it on a couple Hail Mary passes timed nicely even in a shit winter, whereas up north you need a solid sustained pattern all season long.

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44 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

And the further north you go the harder it gets to see bigger anomalies too.

Metfan can get 30% above normal a lot easier than those up north.  Or at least can do it on a couple Hail Mary passes timed nicely even in a shit winter, whereas up north you need a solid sustained pattern all season long.

I got 38 inches last winter

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45 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

And the further north you go the harder it gets to see bigger anomalies too.

Metfan can get 30% above normal a lot easier than those up north.  Or at least can do it on a couple Hail Mary passes timed nicely even in a shit winter, whereas up north you need a solid sustained pattern all season long.

Only if you go by percentage. Standard deviation takes care of this problem.

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13 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

That's the one, thanks I always forget that.  I always get tweaked when those Seasonal Forecasts come out with 125-150% of normal or whatever :lol:.

Yeah it would be more useful if the community embraced standard devs. Like “this looks like roughly a 1 sigma above normal snowfall winter for BOS to BTV”....one sigma for BOS is prob like 150% of normal while in Stowe it might be 115%. 

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50 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

That's the one, thanks I always forget that.  I always get tweaked when those Seasonal Forecasts come out with 125-150% of normal or whatever :lol:.

Yeah so for MJO, I was thinking compared to an anomaly standpoint, maybe he's 1-2 SD below normal, and someone like Ray is 1SD above normal or a bit less. Don't quote me verbatim.....just saying as an example. 

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6 hours ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Unreal that I have 48" of precip since installing my Davis since it went online Jan 23rd.

If I add TAN's precip up to that date, I am at 49.25".

61.98" is the highest annual total at TAN, from 2018.

Well within reach with 3mo to go.

Willington Ct and Andover are near 80 inches I am 73 ish

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1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah it would be more useful if the community embraced standard devs. Like “this looks like roughly a 1 sigma above normal snowfall winter for BOS to BTV”....one sigma for BOS is prob like 150% of normal while in Stowe it might be 115%. 

Then again that doesn’t necessarily flow off the tongue in a WxBell or other vendor seasonal forecast for the public.. “what’s a sigma?  Is that a blizzard?”

I do think based on what I remember from JSpin that percentage is about right for the higher snowfall zones per SD.  And 1 below being like 85%.

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2 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Then again that doesn’t necessarily flow off the tongue in a WxBell or other vendor seasonal forecast for the public.. “what’s a sigma?  Is that a blizzard?”

I do think based on what I remember from JSpin that percentage is about right for the higher snowfall zones per SD.  And 1 below being like 85%.

Yeah nobody uses sigma so it sounds weird but if the met community started embracing it, then it would eventually sound normal.

Problem is the percentage anomalies are just way too popular to abandon even though they aren’t super useful. They don’t tell us much without peaking at the baseline and variance (which standard deviation has covered). 

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14 minutes ago, DotRat_Wx said:

I want cold weather. Bring it on

A least someone in New England does. Seems many up here should just move south and get it over with.

You don't even need to go to FL. At my place in MD it will be 50-60 degrees and sunny most of December and then again by mid-February onwards most years.

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