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October Discussion: Bring the Frost-Hold the Snow


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24 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Unreal that I have 48" of precip since installing my Davis since it went online Jan 23rd.

If I add TAN's precip up to that date, I am at 49.25".

61.98" is the highest annual total at TAN, from 2018.

Well within reach with 3mo to go.

South of Pike winter summer and now another winter upcoming 

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3 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

After winter arrives out west, pattern relaxes a bit and looks more Nino with higher heights relative to normal in Canada and lower heights over srn US. Either way, we AN.

Mm.. the pattern may look AN, but as this ordeal presently shows ... we can be f'!ed deep and hard, despite being underneath higher than normal heights, or whether or not an overall canvas should argue this can't happen.  The larger scale tends to obscure/ hides how specific New England idiosyncratic detailing offset the larger picture ... uncouples us from the pattern indication. 

Just means warm look = cool result for other reasons.  This is typical of transition season bs around here.  It's the same reason why April manks in like this.  It has to do with where we are in relation to the continent.  and we "kelvin hemholts" pooled 850 air that isn't warming ...The Euro is slam dunking that tendency and that ain't no AN. 

'can't pearl out high pressure N of our latitude...or it will be negative anomalies ...i.e, NOT above normal,  yes DURING and above normal pattern.   Sounds paradoxical, but that's what it means for this geographical region.   It's unique.  It's like we run our own private little sub-climate that hides within and runs anti-corollary to the larger signal ...say 40% of the time in a sense.

So while I'm not refuting your take there ...I'd just caution folks that this can turnout ugly, ... gobbling up a half week's worth of life in another low level cool/RH dumpster scenario that isn't very well modeled.

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14 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Mm.. the pattern may look AN, but as this ordeal presently shows ... we can be f'!ed deep and hard, despite being underneath higher than normal heights, or whether or not an overall canvas should argue this can't happen.  The larger scale tends to obscure/ hides how specific New England idiosyncratic detailing offset the larger picture ... uncouples us from the pattern indication. 

Just means warm look = cool result for other reasons.  This is typical of transition season bs around here.  It's the same reason why April manks in like this.  It has to do with where we are in relation to the continent.  and we "kelvin hemholts" pooled 850 air that isn't warming ...The Euro is slam dunking that tendency and that ain't no AN. 

'can't pearl out high pressure N of our latitude...or it will be negative anomalies ...i.e, NOT above normal,  yes DURING and above normal pattern.   Sounds paradoxical, but that's what it means for this geographical region.   It's unique.  It's like we run our own private little sub-climate that hides within and runs anti-corollary to the larger signal ...say 40% of the time in a sense.

So while I'm not refuting your take there ...I'd just caution folks that this can turnout ugly, ... gobbling up a half week's worth of life in another low level cool/RH dumpster scenario that isn't very well modeled.

Yeah we could wedge and the temps during the day are raw, but temps at night AN. I just meant overall an AN look...but yeah the cosmic you know what could occur with wedging.

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35 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

Here is precip for the past 60 days.  The haves and have nots...  I'm in that light green that goes through central areas.

precip.jpg

Just as a reminder, those radar estimates are always low east of the Spine of the Greens from beam blockage.  It’s likely a mix of the dark green and yellow connecting into NNH.

But jeez at the widespread nature of water down south.  It’s not even topographical at all, just a surge of water covering SNE and adjacent NY.

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10 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Just as a reminder, those radar estimates are always low east of the Spine of the Greens from beam blockage.  It’s likely a mix of the dark green and yellow connecting into NNH.

But jeez at the widespread nature of water down south.  It’s not even topographical at all, just a surge of water covering SNE and adjacent NY.

looks like a precip distribution you would hate in the Winter. Deformation band in Eastern NY/PA that brushes CNE.. CCB across the center of SNE, and an OES circle jerk along East coastal mass/Cape

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14 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

looks like a precip distribution you would hate in the Winter. Deformation band in Eastern NY/PA that brushes CNE.. CCB across the center of SNE, and an OES circle jerk along East coastal mass/Cape

Yeah that’s the ALB CWA deform look for sure while everything slides east.  Not ideal lol.  That axis isn’t bad in NY/PA if the storm is ripping north but that’s got Miller B underneath a block look, ha.

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39 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah that’s the ALB CWA deform look for sure while everything slides east.  Not ideal lol.  That axis isn’t bad in NY/PA if the storm is ripping north but that’s got Miller B underneath a block look, ha.

It would work ok for our normal nickle and dime stuff.  No blockbusters up here for sure though.

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