Baroclinic Zone Posted October 24, 2021 Share Posted October 24, 2021 Ineedsnow spamming posts left and right over the last day. It's just an Autumn Noreaster, we'll do just fine. Looking to get 1.51" to crack 5" 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted October 24, 2021 Share Posted October 24, 2021 Solid frost on the windshield in Ludlow Vermont. 30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 24, 2021 Share Posted October 24, 2021 On 10/24/2021 at 10:26 AM, Damage In Tolland said: The high wind is what all need and want. It’s coming Expand You would probably be wedged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 24, 2021 Share Posted October 24, 2021 Damage damaging winds, thanks to that same low level jet, and aided by nearly fully leafed trees. BUFKIT soundings indicate potential for winds of nearly 70 kts at the top of the mixed layer Tuesday night into Wednesday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 24, 2021 Share Posted October 24, 2021 On 10/24/2021 at 10:49 AM, Modfan2 said: Are there still a lot of leaves on the trees? Part of the problems this time of year are ground and peoples gutters are littered with leaves Expand Oaks loaded with leaves. Other species still have plenty . This is gonna be wild for everyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 24, 2021 Share Posted October 24, 2021 On 10/24/2021 at 11:20 AM, Baroclinic Zone said: Ineedsnow spamming posts left and right over the last day. It's just an Autumn Noreaster, we'll do just fine. Looking to get 1.51" to crack 5" Expand Not spamming at all the potential is there 1) heavy rain and potential for urban and street flooding given ample moisture and lift (low level jet of 60-70 kts at 925 mb!). Ensemble means are painting a widespread 3-5 inches of rain through Wednesday evening while some deterministic runs show as much as 8-10 inches. Though widespread amounts of this magnitude are unlikely, it is a concerning signal/trend, and urban/small stream flooding is a concern. The ECMWF probability of 4 inches of rain is 70-80%! (and 30-60% chance of that much within 24 hours). One additional concern this time of year is fallen leaves clogging storm drains, exacerbating street flooding. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 24, 2021 Share Posted October 24, 2021 First frost, but still a bit too much wind to bottom out like the rad pits. 33.4° so far, but CON was 28° before mixing back out. Looks like I’ll go into November for the first time without a freeze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted October 24, 2021 Share Posted October 24, 2021 On 10/24/2021 at 9:54 AM, Modfan2 said: I’d take that run if it were snow; enjoy your flooded basements on that run Expand Ukie wants to flood the rooftops as well. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ukmet&p=qpf_acc&rh=2021102400&fh=84&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted October 24, 2021 Share Posted October 24, 2021 On 10/24/2021 at 11:34 AM, ineedsnow said: Not spamming at all the potential is there 1) heavy rain and potential for urban and street flooding given ample moisture and lift (low level jet of 60-70 kts at 925 mb!). Ensemble means are painting a widespread 3-5 inches of rain through Wednesday evening while some deterministic runs show as much as 8-10 inches. Though widespread amounts of this magnitude are unlikely, it is a concerning signal/trend, and urban/small stream flooding is a concern. The ECMWF probability of 4 inches of rain is 70-80%! (and 30-60% chance of that much within 24 hours). One additional concern this time of year is fallen leaves clogging storm drains, exacerbating street flooding. Expand Start a thread 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 24, 2021 Share Posted October 24, 2021 On 10/24/2021 at 11:20 AM, Baroclinic Zone said: Ineedsnow spamming posts left and right over the last day. It's just an Autumn Noreaster, we'll do just fine. Looking to get 1.51" to crack 5" Expand I didn't know autumn nor'easters casually spew 8-12" totals. Unless that's the new normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 24, 2021 Share Posted October 24, 2021 On 10/24/2021 at 11:20 AM, Baroclinic Zone said: Ineedsnow spamming posts left and right over the last day. It's just an Autumn Noreaster, we'll do just fine. Looking to get 1.51" to crack 5" Expand Yea just an Autumn Noreaster, um... Precip anomalies for this one are as high as 1065% AN in the Berks, ORH county. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 24, 2021 Share Posted October 24, 2021 On 10/24/2021 at 10:49 AM, Modfan2 said: Are there still a lot of leaves on the trees? Part of the problems this time of year are ground and peoples gutters are littered with leaves Expand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 24, 2021 Share Posted October 24, 2021 On 10/24/2021 at 11:47 AM, SnoSki14 said: I didn't know autumn nor'easters casually spew 8-12" totals. Unless that's the new normal. Expand We have had a few spit out many inches of rain. 1996 was one in October. Maybe the 8-12 is high as forecasted, but we have had many that fall into the 3-6" range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 24, 2021 Share Posted October 24, 2021 Just need the goofus to verify so we can make it a meh event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 24, 2021 Share Posted October 24, 2021 On 10/24/2021 at 11:55 AM, dendrite said: Just need the goofus to verify so we can make it a meh event. Expand Yeah still lots of question on low placement. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted October 24, 2021 Share Posted October 24, 2021 There’s a sig tropical element to this guy, and it’s October —waters near the BM still support a TC. So this will be more dynamic than a potent nor’easter. Adjust expectations accordingly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted October 24, 2021 Share Posted October 24, 2021 34F. No frost.Sent from my SM-G981U1 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 24, 2021 Share Posted October 24, 2021 Started a thread so I don't clog this one up anymore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 24, 2021 Share Posted October 24, 2021 On 10/24/2021 at 11:32 AM, Damage In Tolland said: Damage damaging winds, thanks to that same low level jet, and aided by nearly fully leafed trees. BUFKIT soundings indicate potential for winds of nearly 70 kts at the top of the mixed layer Tuesday night into Wednesday. Expand How high up is the top of the mixed layer? On 10/24/2021 at 11:41 AM, klw said: Ukie wants to flood the rooftops as well. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ukmet&p=qpf_acc&rh=2021102400&fh=84&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc= Expand Leaf-filled storm drains ftl. Glad I had my sump-pump replaced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted October 24, 2021 Share Posted October 24, 2021 On 10/24/2021 at 11:37 AM, dendrite said: First frost, but still a bit too much wind to bottom out like the rad pits. 33.5° so far, but CON was 28° before mixing back out. Looks like I’ll go into November for the first time without a freeze. Expand This airmass really moderated vs the guidance from a week ago. I guess my bitchin’ paid off. No frost here, and the threat of rain the next few days with onshore flow means the garden is still in the clear for the next few weeks. I’m happy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 24, 2021 Share Posted October 24, 2021 32.3F for a low here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted October 24, 2021 Share Posted October 24, 2021 40.3 up on my "hill" 34F down in TAN "hollow" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 24, 2021 Share Posted October 24, 2021 On 10/24/2021 at 11:58 AM, moneypitmike said: How high up is the top of the mixed layer? Leaf-filled storm drains ftl. Glad I had my sump-pump replaced. Expand The interior would Be wedged so winds likely tempered there. Just depends on storm track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 24, 2021 Share Posted October 24, 2021 40 here for low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted October 24, 2021 Share Posted October 24, 2021 On 10/24/2021 at 10:19 AM, moneypitmike said: Wild applause for using a median and not just a mean. That provides so much more context to what's being depicted. Now if we can start using SD, people will stop thinking that "normal" and "average" are the same thing....... Expand Color me still stupid, as the "normals" are 30-year "averages". However I agree that medians are more valuable than averages, especially in smaller sample sizes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yukon Cornelius Posted October 24, 2021 Share Posted October 24, 2021 33.1. Coldest yet here. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 24, 2021 Share Posted October 24, 2021 6z GFS has the fantasy storm again 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 24, 2021 Share Posted October 24, 2021 On 10/24/2021 at 12:12 PM, ineedsnow said: 6z GFS has the fantasy storm again Expand Congrats Maine 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 24, 2021 Share Posted October 24, 2021 Heavy frost/freeze this morning, Knocked both off in one shot, 28.8°F was the low, Rebounded to 41/29°F now. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 24, 2021 Share Posted October 24, 2021 lol at the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now