October Discussion: Bring the Frost-Hold the Snow

[ineedsnow]

the fog was nuts this morning on the way home.. even kcef was reporting 0 vis now up to .13

[Typhoon Tip]

Which is what they may be trying to do for the last 10 days of the month's changing of the guard, too  ( how much or how little?)

We'll see  - honestly ... between this warm up, and that 'plausible' ensuing cool-down, this one had the greater confidence at relative..similar lead.  The reason for the misgivings is because of the climate signal to be blunt, and that it is growing almost to the extent of "exceptionally" hard to verify cooler extended synoptic looks in models and telecon spreads, compared to what those similar layouts might have looked like 20 .. or even 10 years ago.  It's like the models have their own "climate change" in that sense...where they have this emergent error to over carve the thickness and cold profiled synoptics, and it appears to be true regardless of model and version of the model in question, too.   Bear that in mind as we get into winter, I suppose -

Nevertheless, we snowed at the end of an awful lot of Octobers ...a distinction that probably more so than not, includes those November cold snaps and snow storms - the causality is the same forcing.  It's an Autumn distinction.   I have droning hypothesis but no one reads anymore so ..  I'd be shocked if this sentence presently being typed was ever succeeded so who cares

[CoastalWx]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

60’s is normal 

Will be cooler 

[Baroclinic Zone]

Any record highs in jeopardy today?  I see TAN's record high for the day in 74F(2015), going back to 1998 when the station came online.

[ORH_wxman]

11 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Any record highs in jeopardy today?  I see TAN's record high for the day in 74F(2015), going back to 1998 when the station came online.

No, all the stations with longer periods have record highs of 85+ for today.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

1 hour ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Looks like Orange's avg low is 40F on this date.  So you got a +11F for low at the site today.

63F is the avg high, so that'll be blown away too.

OK thanks.

I wish we had another official site in central Franklin County. Orange is pretty much the very eastern edge of the county.  So no official sites W to E between Orange and North Adams and then nothing N to S between Keane and Westfield.

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

A Torchtober to remember. Although pretty big change early next week for a few days. 

Good news with respect to winter, if anything.

[Typhoon Tip]

I wonder what the low departures were for those days of climate past -

I haven't bothered to geek-out enough to find data sources such as at demand back yard NWS site daily extremes.   It's funny, ..if you attempt to find those on the internet, it's monetized to the point where you can't.  I bet the internet of 20 years ago you could - but that's ne'er here anymore.

Anyway, for me it would also be interested to know what the DPs were during those 85+ October heat highs.  I have been alive for 50 years on this world, and lived 1/3 of the time in the Great Lakes, and the rest around New England, and I don't ever remember 85+ at any point after October 1st.  I remember it recently happening in Feb/Mar/Apr ironically.. But if the data goes back substantially further like you say, ...heh, it is what it is.  

But I wonder if the atmospheres compare thermodynamically.   If it was 85/45 that is a cooler atmosphere compared if it 77/57 where it counts - in the realm of physics.  That's not impossible at this rate at Fit and Bos ...say.  It matters, and really .. the scalar temperature belies the real usefulness of extreme-analytics.

[Damage In Tolland]

30 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Will be cooler 

I don’t see any days Sunday into next week at BOS or BDL or E Mass that stay below 60

[40/70 Benchmark]

34 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Which is what they may be trying to do for the last 10 days of the month's changing of the guard, too  ( how much or how little?)

We'll see  - honestly ... between this warm up, and that 'plausible' ensuing cool-down, this one had the greater confidence at relative..similar lead.  The reason for the misgivings is because of the climate signal to be blunt, and that it is growing almost to the extent of "exceptionally" hard to verify cooler extended synoptic looks in models and telecon spreads, compared to what those similar layouts might have looked like 20 .. or even 10 years ago.  It's like the models have their own "climate change" in that sense...where they have this emergent error to over carve the thickness and cold profiled synoptics, and it appears to be true regardless of model and version of the model in question, too.   Bear that in mind as we get into winter, I suppose -

Nevertheless, we snowed at the end of an awful lot of Octobers ...a distinction that probably more so than not, includes those November cold snaps and snow storms - the causality is the same forcing.  It's an Autumn distinction.   I have droning hypothesis but no one reads anymore so ..  I'd be shocked if this sentence presently being typed was ever succeeded so who cares

"Anymore"...

[Typhoon Tip]

13 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I don’t see any days Sunday into next week at BOS or BDL or E Mass that stay below 60

Ah...I don't know about that.   I agree that cooling synoptic interludes tend to be over-sold at this range as a "decadal model behavior" - I was just ignored for this very subject matter an hour ago... Lol.. no seriously, but we could give some back and still hold mid 50s with brisk chill wind with that trough next week. 

It may roll-out after that, but if the telecon spread is any indication, we'd likely reload with another incremental down.

[CoastalWx]

11 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I don’t see any days Sunday into next week at BOS or BDL or E Mass that stay below 60

Monday and Tuesday probably 55-60 there. 

[Typhoon Tip]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

"Anymore"...

well... in 'general' no -

it's a cultural observation ... but one I feel pretty strongly is a sociological forcing that occurs when subjecting a populous to a multi-generational convenience addling.   In other words, feckless virtuosity twits like bird-brains sitting in the cozy Industrial nest, with their beaks agape waiting for Tweet hand-outs. 

I mean it feels like, 'oh lost another one;  what does feckless mean' you know?  jesus - not you, just in general.

Hey, did you go to Africa?  Are you back - the f'n Sox won the ALDS ... hopefully you recorded. Those games are worth a quick pop through - ..heh, speaking of convenience.  Man, that was great for baseball that series right there

[tamarack]

14 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Beer?

Many types of vegetation have been found to grow at ground level. Fake cold at the ground level has also been found to be real enough to freeze water on them and freeze the water in their cells.

This is the same vegetation that experiences fake dews in the summer.  They often struggle with realizing their existence.

Low of 37 last Wednesday and my cukes were fried.  Had 34 on 9/29 and nothing was harmed.  Clear and cold both mornings.  Wx can be weird.   
And I record length of growing seasons as the days between last 32/lower and first 32/lower - mister obvious.  The plants may reacted differently - thermometer 31 with a breeze may not do harm because the garden is 33-34, and instrument 33-35 in still/clear may be 30 at cuke level.

[tamarack]

44 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

No, all the stations with longer periods have record highs of 85+ for today.

Farther north, Farmington's earliest sub-80 record is on 10/15 and for sub-75 it's the 31st.

[Typhoon Tip]

2 hours ago, snowman21 said:

All the cold is out west for now. Blizzard and winter storm warnings to freeze warnings in effect from the Canadian border all the way down to Mexico.

Elevation's helping that along a bit, though. 

By that time you mangle that with continental abuse and settle down east of the Mississippi it's probably grapple showers in the lakes and maybe a frost here if/when the wind abates.

But at least it'd be step in the wanted direction, sure.  

[powderfreak]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

No, all the stations with longer periods have record highs of 85+ for today.

Yeah I think BTV has a run of 84-85s for numerous days in here for record highs… some year in the 1940s IIRC, ha.

I was surprised a bit to see records still mid-80s this time of year.

[SnoSki14]

3 hours ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

We embrace the warmth.  Cold is not required till January.

It's been very pleasant. No heat or a/c required. Could do without all those cloudy days though.

[Damage In Tolland]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Ah...I don't know about that.   I agree that cooling synoptic interludes tend to be over-sold at this range as a "decadal model behavior" - I was just ignored for this very subject matter an hour ago... Lol.. no seriously, but we could give some back and still hold mid 50s with brisk chill wind with that trough next week. 

It may roll-out after that, but if the telecon spread is any indication, we'd likely reload with another incremental down.

I could see the hilltowns maybe staying under 60 on Sunday . But it still looks slightly AN overall before re warm next week 

[Chrisrotary12]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Good news with respect to winter, if anything.

Cue a 10/31 rain to snow event that porks us for the winter.

[Lava Rock]

75F and climbing quick. Maybe 80?

[ma blizzard]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I wonder what the low departures were for those days of climate past -

I haven't bothered to geek-out enough to find data sources such as at demand back yard NWS site daily extremes.   It's funny, ..if you attempt to find those on the internet, it's monetized to the point where you can't.  I bet the internet of 20 years ago you could - but that's ne'er here anymore.

Anyway, for me it would also be interested to know what the DPs were during those 85+ October heat highs.  I have been alive for 50 years on this world, and lived 1/3 of the time in the Great Lakes, and the rest around New England, and I don't ever remember 85+ at any point after October 1st.  I remember it recently happening in Feb/Mar/Apr ironically.. But if the data goes back substantially further like you say, ...heh, it is what it is.  

But I wonder if the atmospheres compare thermodynamically.   If it was 85/45 that is a cooler atmosphere compared if it 77/57 where it counts - in the realm of physics.  That's not impossible at this rate at Fit and Bos ...say.  It matters, and really .. the scalar temperature belies the real usefulness of extreme-analytics.

For KBOS past 30ish years:

10/10/2018 86

10/9/2011 87

10/10/2011 85

10/4/2007 86

10/2/2002 85

10/6/1990 86 

10/7/1990 85

90 after 10/1:

10/7/1963 (3 days 85+, including 86 on 10/27 - latest 85+ on record)

10/12/1954 (4 days 85+ this month)

10/1/1881

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

well... in 'general' no -

it's a cultural observation ... but one I feel pretty strongly is a sociological forcing that occurs when subjecting a populous to a multi-generational convenience addling.   In other words, feckless virtuosity twits like bird-brains sitting in the cozy Industrial nest, with their beaks agape waiting for Tweet hand-outs. 

I mean it feels like, 'oh lost another one;  what does feckless mean' you know?  jesus - not you, just in general.

Hey, did you go to Africa?  Are you back - the f'n Sox won the ALDS ... hopefully you recorded. Those games are worth a quick pop through - ..heh, speaking of convenience.  Man, that was great for baseball that series right there

I'm in Africa..I followed the games on ESPN gamecast, but working on streaming ALCS.

[dendrite]

1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah I think BTV has a run of 84-85s for numerous days in here for record highs… some year in the 1940s IIRC, ha.

I was surprised a bit to see records still mid-80s this time of year.

Kinda need a DSD this time of year to really get the deeper mixing.

26 years ago today we had a pretty epic torch. 87F at CON...but wasn't even a record. Lots of mid/upper 80s to 90F records at CON through 10/20 and then by 11/1 it's down to 80F.

[CoastalWx]

47 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Kinda need a DSD this time of year to really get the deeper mixing.

26 years ago today we had a pretty epic torch. 87F at CON...but wasn't even a record. Lots of mid/upper 80s to 90F records at CON through 10/20 and then by 11/1 it's down to 80F.

Yeah, I mean this is COC and suits everywhere stuff. Just well AN...but not the uber stuff. 

[weathafella]

Kind of bummed but it looks like we flip on the heat for the beginning of next week.   

[Damage In Tolland]

15 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Kind of bummed but it looks like we flip on the heat for the beginning of next week.   

Heat for 60’s/ 50’s in and around BOS?

 

[Torch Tiger]

That's a hell of a forecast for mid-late October. lol  Take

[Torch Tiger]

All of these mild days of 60's and 70's with no freezes, it's amazing.  It's almost November...this winter is going to fly by

[weathafella]

11 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Heat for 60’s/ 50’s in and around BOS?

 

Most guidance is a few ticks cooler and night time 35-40 with days 55-60 will likely warrant it.   Sun is worth crap these days.....doesn’t even heat the upstairs much like high summer.   If we get an overcast house stays cold.   Anyway, when you flip on the heat you acknowledge there’s not further need for a/c.  We haven’t had it on in weeks.  All about sun angle.   Long range doesn’t look terribly warm tbh.