wncsnow Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Canadian totals went down too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Well it's basically go time now. Ill look at the morning models but that's about it. Prepare for everything, expect the modest, and hope for the maximum. Get some rest gents because tomorrow is going to be fireworks. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 UK-lower totals for most Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherHawk Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 5 hours ago, Tyler Penland said: Here ya go from pivotal. General trend has been down over the last several runs but this one looks slightly better for the NW mountains. Still 36 hours for another windshield wiper trend. Sent from my Pixel 5 using Tapatalk Think the NW High Country still gonna be pleased with an excellent event. And that backside dealio will be a nice little thump. I’m just a tick North from ya’ here on East side of Elk Knob and not looking forward to the winds when this rolls out. The low temps combined with the possibility of another event Wed/Thurs.-I’d say no school for the kiddos probably for the whole week. But hey no complaints, let’s all enjoy an active winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 34 minutes ago, WeatherHawk said: Think the NW High Country still gonna be pleased with an excellent event. And that backside dealio will be a nice little thump. I’m just a tick North from ya’ here on East side of Elk Knob and not looking forward to the winds when this rolls out. The low temps combined with the possibility of another event Wed/Thurs.-I’d say no school for the kiddos probably for the whole week. But hey no complaints, I’m enjoying an active winter! The overnight Euro once again was just steady as a rock 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moonhowl Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 On 9/24/2021 at 4:23 PM, BlueRidgeFolklore said: From the start of the Fall/Winter thread 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 1 minute ago, wxduncan said: How is the forecast looking for Morganton total wise etc? I've seen some people say we might not get anything because of a few runs from overnight that true? But then according to GSP and NWS, we are still on track what gives? Looks like you could get anywhere from 5 to 10 inches of snow. There is a possibility of some mixing which would cut into totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxduncan Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Just released and updated from GSP this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 GFS looks on point also this morning. I really don't see much mixing issues for the mountains at all. Not saying GSP is wrong but I just don't see it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherHawk Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 7 minutes ago, Met1985 said: GFS looks on point also this morning. I really don't see much mixing issues for the mountains at all. Not saying GSP is wrong but I just don't see it. Same, looks like pretty much and all snow deal up here. But not the same deal for down the hill along the I-85/US-64 corridor from like Charlotte, East to Apex area…thinking they may have a significant IP/ZR event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Well 6z Nam(s) weren’t nearly as bad as the 0z debacle. Adjusted its evolution some with that primary 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherHawk Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 2 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: Well 6z Nam(s) weren’t nearly as bad as the 0z debacle. Adjusted its evolution some with that primary Looks like the lp shifted north on the one? Or am I just tired? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 5 minutes ago, WeatherHawk said: Same, looks like pretty much and all snow deal up here. But not the same deal for down the hill along the I-85/US-64 corridor from like Charlotte, East to Apex area…thinking they may have a significant IP/ZR event. Yeah and the rule of thumb if you are outside the mountains there is always an issue with mixing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 1 minute ago, wxduncan said: Think Morganton in Burke county can stay mostly snow or? I think you may have mixing issues possibly but at this point its a nowcast situation. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Just now, wxduncan said: Well as long as I can get 5-6 inches of snow I will call it a win here in Morganton. Adding some sleet on top and maybe a little zr will make for some amazing sledding plus will stay around longer. Yeah I think you'll get that easy. I wouldn't worry at all about getting that. It's going to be a wild ride. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherHawk Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 5 minutes ago, wxduncan said: Think Morganton in Burke county can stay mostly snow or? Maybe around the northern Burke, Jonas Ridge/Gorge areas looks like the majority as snow, but south of that, the elevation drops rapidly, so I’m not sure. IMO, I’d say mostly snow and some IP/ZR, with more concern with icing for the Piedmont and Charlotte areas. Hard to imagine over an inch of ice around those areas-especially given the fact they haven’t had a significant ice storm in a while, so there’s plenty of low hanging fruit to snap. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 9 minutes ago, WeatherHawk said: Looks like the lp shifted north on the one? Or am I just tired? I’m literally laying here on my side squinting you proved me wrong it isn’t much better in the end after I selected by region and zoomed in. Just have to hope it’s wrong. Most globals continued to look the same and have been rock steady for run on run on run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherHawk Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 3 minutes ago, Met1985 said: Yeah I think you'll get that easy. I wouldn't worry at all about getting that. It's going to be a wild ride. Indeed! And that backside looks impressive. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 7 minutes ago, WeatherHawk said: Indeed! And that backside looks impressive. Yeah all systems go at this point. Sitting at a cold 24 degrees and ready for this thing to pop off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 7 minutes ago, wxduncan said: Well you make me feel alot better about it now because my goal with every storm is 5-6. I don't need no more then that because that's my whole average for the winter Yeah for that area that is a great storm. Take it and run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherHawk Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 11 minutes ago, wxduncan said: I plan on it my kids and wife are really excited for it and so am I. I always said once you get to 5-6 inches thats the threshold to where its enough. Maybe even as low as 4 inches. Thinking you’re looking around 8 tho’ good luck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BretWx Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Rise and shine! It's almost go time! Also, that NAM LP placement is wonky as hell... I'm not buying it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Just now, BretWx said: Rise and shine! It's almost go time! Also, that NAM LP placement is wonky as hell... I'm not buying it. Yeah again the NAM go from heavy heavy snow to sleet back to snow... Im not buying it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncjoaquin Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 I still have a point forecast of 4-8. I would take 3 and still be happy. I just want some snow after all this work, lol. Good luck to everyone. I still feel like we are going to do really well. Edited to add, the GFS STILL thinks we are getting hammered and also that NW flow means business. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxJordan Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 23 minutes ago, wxduncan said: All the globals are holding steady have not changed. Wonder what's going on with the NAM? Just checked my point and click for Morganton/Valdese shows 3-7 so I'm happy with that I think NWS has a pretty good handle on it for our area. I really think the lower ends will probably verify. Usually once a changeover from snow to sleet occurs, it doesn't change back easily. The NAM is a higher resolution model, so throughout the day we need to monitor all the short range models closely for any trends. NAM usually is a little biased and too warm, in my experience. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxKnurd Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 1 hour ago, Met1985 said: GFS looks on point also this morning. I really don't see much mixing issues for the mountains at all. Not saying GSP is wrong but I just don't see it. Me either, short range models have burned me too much with showing increasing totals in the past to make me put much faith in them regardless of what they say (though I believe the HRRR is what first noted what happened with the 1/3 event so there is that). And if I get a 1/4” of ice as their map shows that little red dallop over me, I’ll eat my hat. I’m still learning the local climo around Haywood but to me if I torch at mid levels then there is no way the higher peaks 1-2k feet above me in elevation are gonna stay all snow either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 3 hours ago, Maggie Ace said: Good morning folks. It's been enjoyable leading up to the storm. The WPC just updated the Surface Low Track forecast. Boom for you guys! The big boys at WPC put no stock in the quirky NAM runs. that low track is gonna be gold for the Mnts. I wouldn't fly over the cliff because of lower qpf totals in some areas. This tends to happen with models as the event draws near. Often times it's closer to the earlier higher totals. As with every big Mnt snow event the totals will vary wildly. Good luck to all of you!!! 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 5 minutes ago, WxKnurd said: Me either, short range models have burned me too much with showing increasing totals in the past to make me put much faith in them regardless of what they say (though I believe the HRRR is what first noted what happened with the 1/3 event so there is that). And if I get a 1/4” of ice as their map shows that little red dallop over me, I’ll eat my hat. I’m still learning the local climo around Haywood but to me if I torch at mid levels then there is no way the higher peaks 1-2k feet above me in elevation are gonna stay all snow either. Yeah Haywoods climo is complex from community to community or mountain to mountain but everyone in the country should get theres. Youll have the moisture coming from the south then youll have the NW flow setup after the storm pulls away. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 1 minute ago, wxduncan said: That track good for the foothills also? @NavarreDon That track should be great for CAD which you should do very well in but there is always a chance for mixing at your elevation. Also no amount of reassurance is going to make things better until it actually starts. You've asked about Morganton on every storm thread. You may want to take a break from looking at the models. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxKnurd Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 17 minutes ago, Met1985 said: Yeah Haywoods climo is complex from community to community or mountain to mountain but everyone in the country should get theres. Youll have the moisture coming from the south then youll have the NW flow setup after the storm pulls away. Micro-climates are always fun. My old place on Balsam should do great with this setup. Should be a good county wide hit like you said. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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