wncsnow Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 All in all the NAM looks pretty similar to previous runs. It does have the biggest warm nose though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowbird1230 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Can someone knowledgeable to the situation help me understand this forecast? This is the 18z Euro. I'm in Graham County , well into the 12"+ shaded area. Yet NWS is only giving me 1/2"- 1" the entire event.. Not understanding all I need to know. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BretWx Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 NAM is trying to send it up the Aps again .. but by that time we've got some solid snow OTG. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 1 minute ago, BretWx said: NAM is trying to send it up the Aps again .. but by that time we've got some solid snow OTG. That comma on the backside means BUSINESS 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BretWx Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Next frame, even Atlanta is getting in on the backside action. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 The NAM looks odd. Too much jumping around with the low run to run in my opinion... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BretWx Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Damn, I've got to get some sleep. Tomorrow is going to be a wild day! See y'al then. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Hi Res NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 One thing that is making me hopeful is even the worse models give me 6 or 7 inches and may be underdoing the SE flow with the initial thump. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 5 minutes ago, wncsnow said: One thing that is making me hopeful is even the worse models give me 6 or 7 inches and may be underdoing the SE flow with the initial thump. That’s what I’m banking on brother. Get it in here a little earlier as it looks like that’s a possibility and take our chances that way. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LiQuiDBuD Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Hi Res NAMMy goodness, that 24"+ lollipop is right by my house on this 3k NAM. We're squarely in its wheelhouse now, aren't we? Or are we tossing this run because of how it handled the transfer?Sent from my Pixel 6 Pro using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 1 minute ago, LiQuiDBuD said: My goodness, that 24"+ lollipop is right by my house on this 3k NAM. We're squarely in its wheelhouse now, aren't we? Or are we tossing this run because of how it handled the transfer? Sent from my Pixel 6 Pro using Tapatalk Who knows anymore but the NAM doesn't seem as good as it used to be. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Man that NAM run was nerve wracking... It still stayed all snow through 7-8AM but man was it borderline at 850 almost all night. Too darn close to a sleet storm for my comfort on that one. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowbird1230 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 If any of you guys follow DT / WXRISK on Facebook or Twitter..He's saying short range models are very concerning, coming in much warmer. States the possibility of a lot more Ice and much less snow in all of WNC 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 8 minutes ago, SnowDawg said: Man that NAM run was nerve wracking... It still stayed all snow through 7-8AM but man was it borderline at 850 almost all night. Too darn close to a sleet storm for my comfort on that one. That was about the biggest sh*t run you could have possibly had. It’s on an island for the right now moment with how it blasts the low up the apps and flips even Buffalo from snow. Icon looked much better with low progress and I’m expecting GFS to remain steady. If not most of us are probably in trouble. But let’s not get to that mindset yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 5 minutes ago, snowbird1230 said: If any of you guys follow DT / WXRISK on Facebook or Twitter..He's saying short range models are very concerning, coming in much warmer. States the possibility of a lot more Ice and much less snow in all of WNC Rgem looked good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 RGEM still looks similar. A bit less snow but pretty consistent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 22 minutes ago, wncsnow said: RGEM still looks similar. A bit less snow but pretty consistent. Anybody got the clown? Mine is stuck at hr 28 for the snowfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Anybody got the clown? Mine is stuck at hr 28 for the snowfall Here ya go from pivotal. General trend has been down over the last several runs but this one looks slightly better for the NW mountains. Still 36 hours for another windshield wiper trend. Sent from my Pixel 5 using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Here ya go from pivotal. General trend has been down over the last several runs but this one looks slightly better for the NW mountains. Still 36 hours for another windshield wiper trend. Sent from my Pixel 5 using TapatalkBeen nothing but constant for Rutherford county. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 3 minutes ago, Tyler Penland said: Here ya go from pivotal. General trend has been down over the last several runs but this one looks slightly better for the NW mountains. Still 36 hours for another windshield wiper trend. Sent from my Pixel 5 using Tapatalk Plenty of time indeed. I’ve got a weird feeling about the short range models. If the gfs holds serve, I think we’ll see the short range get a clue tomorrow but time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 The GFS is really hammering the mountains. Very heavy snow breaking out around hour 30 and especially around hour 36... Probably some thundersnow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxduncan Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 What's everyone thinking for Morganton snow total wise? Do you guys think 6 inches at least? Or is the NAM going to kill me with a couple inches while all the other models keep me in the 6-12 range. Even GSP on my new updated point and click upped me to 5-9 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 GFS is just rock steady guys. Looks great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Just now, Met1985 said: GFS is just rock steady guys. Looks great. Can you post map pics? TIA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 GFS PASTE BOMB. See y’all in the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Good news=it's consistent Bad news= it's the GFS 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 The RAP still looks nice. It probably stinks but another piece of information to absorb 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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