wncsnow Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Yeah we don't even get 5" of snow here before it turns over to sleet and freezing rain on the nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, Hvward said: Low track is what we need to be focusing on with NAM. Yeah plus we are looking out at long range on the NAM which is the same as looking at hour 360 on the GFS. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Right now it's just the overall pattern on the NAM. once we get into tomorrow we can put some weight into it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, Met1985 said: Right now it's just the overall pattern on the NAM. once we get into tomorrow we can put some weight into it. Keep that hugging the coast as we progress today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 4 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Yeah we don't even get 5" of snow here before it turns over to sleet and freezing rain on the nam That track is not an ice or sleet track for NC. That's either snow or rain, and in this case I would say all snow 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Hang on mountain peeps 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 3 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said: That track is not an ice or sleet track for NC. That's either snow or rain, and in this case I would say all snow Exactly what I was thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, buckeyefan1 said: Hang on mountain peeps Intermittent blizzard conditions with those winds... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, Met1985 said: Intermittent blizzard conditions with those winds... During that time frame its showing zr over most of mountains Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, Met1985 said: Intermittent blizzard conditions with those winds... Indeed! Ya'll just got nam'd Just now, wncsnow said: During that time frame its showing zr over most of mountains You'd be all snow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, wncsnow said: During that time frame its showing zr over most of mountains NAM’s track didn’t match what should be the surface output. I don’t think I’d read too deep at 84 hr. If that track holds, it’s hammer time. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 4 minutes ago, wncsnow said: During that time frame its showing zr over most of mountains The warm nose the NAM shows over WNC is meager. Heavy rates are going to overcome that. There would be so much forcing in the atmosphere in the way of negative omega that I can't see that precipitation falling as freezing rain. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, BretWx said: NAM totals maps are wonky. Snow depth v. totals.... Paying more attention to placement for now. Which looks excellent. Yeah it has mixing issues and also don't account for the backside that is about to come through. I would expect that to correct over the next 24 hours. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 18 minutes ago, wncsnow said: During that time frame its showing zr over most of mountains Its wrong. The profiles for the NAM that far out are shit plain and simple. Remember this is long range NAM... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BretWx Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 This is starting to feel like one for the books. Going to fill some propane today and get some gas for the generator, haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Rgem was a good run. Low transfers to Florence SC from Central bama. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 3 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said: Rgem was a good run. Low transfers to Florence SC from Central bama. It's thermals are crap too though, I really hope this isn't a trend with the Hi res models.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 The only area in the Mnts where their might be any issues would be the extreme SW Mnts. Hayesville, Murphy, Andrews corridor at lower elevations. This area can be susceptible to missing the CAD. Possibly some mixing issues in this locale depending on micro climate, low track, ect. Obviously with varying amounts, the rest of the Mnts show a real possibility of getting clobbered!. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 5 minutes ago, wncsnow said: It's thermals are crap too though, I really hope this isn't a trend with the Hi res models.. 850 Temps stay below freezing even into Hayesville/Murphy. Not worried about it. When the 850 line stops at the Balsams, then it's time to get worried. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Make sure you’re seated when you look at the Icon and the comma head on the backside Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueRidgeFolklore Posted January 13, 2022 Author Share Posted January 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, wncsnow said: It's thermals are crap too though, I really hope this isn't a trend with the Hi res models.. CAD is almost always underdone at this range. As Ward and others have said, this will likely get corrected as we get closer. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowbird1230 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, BlueRidgeFolklore said: CAD is almost always underdone at this range. As Ward and others have said, this will likely get corrected as we get closer. Hopefully, RGEM sucked..rain in the mountains Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BhamParker Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 GFS out to 72 seems to have better thermals to snow for mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BMulkey Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Light flurries in Blowing Rock currently. If we get some snowfall after midnight, that will be five or possibly six consecutive days of snowfall coming up…can’t remember the last time we saw that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 So far the GFS looks good. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Hopefully the gfs calmed some nerves 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 12Z GFS: 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Not q 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, wncsnow said: Not q Good job on the pbp. Yeah everything looks great from my perspective. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, Met1985 said: Good job on the pbp. Yeah everything looks great from my perspective. Thanks bud, I'm still learning as I go but have learned a lot from y'all. I do like the trends of the LP being more south, just been burned so many times here I worry about mixing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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