snowmaker13 Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 NAM's running pretty cool compared to verification for E TN and W NC elevated bust potential. Central TN doing better. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 New NAM increased totals again for most of WNC 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckethead Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 GSP mentioned thundersnow in the PM AFD. Guess I should try and catch a nap before midnight.Area Forecast DiscussionNational Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC308 PM EST Fri Mar 11 2022NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...As the cold front slides through the CFWA overnight, very rapid height falls and intense CAA will filter in behind the front. This will support a 10 degree C drop in 850mb temps in less than two hours across the mountains with rapidly falling snow levels. Expect a quick transition to snow across the mountains just after midnight starting in the Smokies and ridgetops, with the valleys getting in on the action later overnight as snow levels continue to drop. Northwest flow regime will set up shop early Saturday morning and should last well into the afternoon hours along the TN border. With very good saturation through the dendritic growth zone, frontogenetic forcing, and decent duration of snow, elected to continue the Winter Storm Warning above 3500` and Winter Weather Advisory below 3500` over the mountain zones. As the core of the low enters the CFWA overnight, high-res models continue to produce small CAPE which could produce thundersnow with 1-2" per hour snow rates at times. With what looks like a Great Lakes connection and the CAPE potential, wouldn`t be surprised if a few streamers across the mountains developed snow squall characteristics. Temperatures will rapidly drop behind the front due to the very stout CAA, with temperatures dropping throughout the day Saturday. Expect high temperatures to be recorded at midnight tonight as some of the coldest air of the season filters in overnight through Saturday and into the beginning portions of the short term period.Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 4 minutes ago, Buckethead said: GSP mentioned thundersnow in the PM AFD. Guess I should try and catch a nap before midnight. Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 308 PM EST Fri Mar 11 2022 NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... As the cold front slides through the CFWA overnight, very rapid height falls and intense CAA will filter in behind the front. This will support a 10 degree C drop in 850mb temps in less than two hours across the mountains with rapidly falling snow levels. Expect a quick transition to snow across the mountains just after midnight starting in the Smokies and ridgetops, with the valleys getting in on the action later overnight as snow levels continue to drop. Northwest flow regime will set up shop early Saturday morning and should last well into the afternoon hours along the TN border. With very good saturation through the dendritic growth zone, frontogenetic forcing, and decent duration of snow, elected to continue the Winter Storm Warning above 3500` and Winter Weather Advisory below 3500` over the mountain zones. As the core of the low enters the CFWA overnight, high-res models continue to produce small CAPE which could produce thundersnow with 1-2" per hour snow rates at times. With what looks like a Great Lakes connection and the CAPE potential, wouldn`t be surprised if a few streamers across the mountains developed snow squall characteristics. Temperatures will rapidly drop behind the front due to the very stout CAA, with temperatures dropping throughout the day Saturday. Expect high temperatures to be recorded at midnight tonight as some of the coldest air of the season filters in overnight through Saturday and into the beginning portions of the short term period. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk High elevation could see up to a foot. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmaker13 Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 10 minutes ago, Met1985 said: High elevation could see up to a foot. This reminds me of the first overrunning event we had this winter. complete surprise and ended up with several inches. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 Good lord is the weather going to get narly tonight through tomorrow night. Heavy snow, high winds, and dangerous wind chill as low as negative 15 degrees. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moonhowl Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 The snow started in WNC on March 12th 1993, nice anniversary present this year 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 Got my garden ready for the freeze! Hopefully my blueberries still produce this year! 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmaker13 Posted March 12, 2022 Share Posted March 12, 2022 LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckethead Posted March 12, 2022 Share Posted March 12, 2022 Thundersnow reported in Arkansas earlier and now around Memphis per the TN valley thread. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmaker13 Posted March 12, 2022 Share Posted March 12, 2022 0z hrrr is worse for AVL. Thank goodness this wasn't on my radar until yesterday. haha Will still be happy to see some flakes in March if it happens though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted March 12, 2022 Share Posted March 12, 2022 3 hours ago, Maggie Ace said: You left out snow squalls Yeah Buckethead and I were talking about possible thundersnow also... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted March 12, 2022 Share Posted March 12, 2022 What's everyone's temp currently? Im sitting at 48 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted March 12, 2022 Share Posted March 12, 2022 What's everyone's temp currently? Im sitting at 48 degrees. Same here. 48.6Sent from my Pixel 5 using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AshVegas Posted March 12, 2022 Share Posted March 12, 2022 19 minutes ago, Met1985 said: What's everyone's temp currently? Im sitting at 48 degrees. 55 in North Asheville 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainforrest Posted March 12, 2022 Share Posted March 12, 2022 48 here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAWGNKITTEN Posted March 12, 2022 Share Posted March 12, 2022 52 in Tiger, GA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted March 12, 2022 Share Posted March 12, 2022 Good Lord! Don't look at the GFS! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxKnurd Posted March 12, 2022 Share Posted March 12, 2022 1 hour ago, Met1985 said: What's everyone's temp currently? Im sitting at 48 degrees. 51.8 on my side of the mountain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckethead Posted March 12, 2022 Share Posted March 12, 2022 I'm at 44.Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckethead Posted March 12, 2022 Share Posted March 12, 2022 Good Lord! Don't look at the GFS!That's the kind of trend I like to see just before gametime!Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted March 12, 2022 Share Posted March 12, 2022 9 minutes ago, Buckethead said: That's the kind of trend I like to see just before gametime! Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Yeah big time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckethead Posted March 12, 2022 Share Posted March 12, 2022 29.6° with moderate snow in Wolf. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted March 12, 2022 Share Posted March 12, 2022 Right at 32 with heavy sleet. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted March 12, 2022 Share Posted March 12, 2022 30 with all snow. Not sticking yet but won't be long. Edit: mixing with sleet at times. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sw NC weather Posted March 12, 2022 Share Posted March 12, 2022 Coming down at a good clip North of Franklin atm. Everything is coated but the driveway. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted March 12, 2022 Share Posted March 12, 2022 Areas affected...Portions of southern and central Appalachians and vicinity Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 120733Z - 121330Z SUMMARY...Heavy snow is possible within the southern and central Appalachians and vicinity. 1-2 inches per hour snowfall is possible in eastern Tennessee and Kentucky. Rates of 1-1.5 inches per hour will continue to move northeastward into West Virginia and western/central Pennsylvania towards early morning. DISCUSSION...Temperatures have been dropping quickly across eastern Tennessee and Kentucky over the past 1-2 hours as cold air advection and diabatic cooling have increased. Correlation coefficient data from KJKL and KMRX show a transition zone from rain to snow roughly located in the Cumberland Plateau vicinity. This transition zone has quickly shifted east over the last hour. The combination of mid-level ascent and upslope flow will support 1-2 inch snowfall rates along the western slopes into the Appalachians. The greatest snowfall rates will begin to taper off by 4-6 AM EST. Farther north, snowfall is increasing across West Virginia into western Pennsylvania. Several observations sites are reporting moderate to heavy snow that is has been primarily driven by 850-700 mb frontogentic lift. As the trough moves east and intensifies, deep-layer ascent will increase in these areas into early Saturday morning. The potential for 1-1.5 inch snowfall rates will increase accordingly during the next several hours. ..Wendt.. 03/12/2022Sent from my Pixel 5 using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckethead Posted March 12, 2022 Share Posted March 12, 2022 I have about 2" on the ground so far. Absolutely hammering right now!Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckethead Posted March 12, 2022 Share Posted March 12, 2022 Approaching 4" on the ground now at 4500' in Wolf.Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted March 12, 2022 Share Posted March 12, 2022 39 minutes ago, Buckethead said: Approaching 4" on the ground now at 4500' in Wolf. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Got about 2 inches here with a heavy layer of sleet underneath all the snow. The wind is ripping and there are numerous power outages around the county already. Temp down to 23 which is a 25 degree drop from midnight... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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