BooneWX Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 The NAM was getting ready to be a humongous hit for the upstate and WNC. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 2 minutes ago, BooneWX said: The NAM was getting ready to be a humongous hit for the upstate and WNC. Yep. I'm going back and reading the December 2017 overrunning thread. This seems very similar to that and some of the same model bias is showing up this storm 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Just now, wncsnow said: Yep. I'm going back and reading the December 2017 overrunning thread. This seems very similar to that and some of the same model bias is showing up this storm Very similar as Hunter alluded to yesterday. The benefit this go-round would be phenomenal temps. We could be looking at solid 15:1 ratios in WNC if we can just get moisture here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 WPC afternoon Update just issued. Looks like the graphic they hosted yesterday. Down with it . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 RGEM ladies and gents and its still snowing 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 1 hour ago, wncsnow said: Yep. I'm going back and reading the December 2017 overrunning thread. This seems very similar to that and some of the same model bias is showing up this storm No kidding. Just 4 pages in, 84hr NAM 12km throwing the first warning shots that lot more QPF was coming west about 3-4 days out. Sounds pretty familiar. Obviously 2017 is a ridiculous benchmark, but it's clear comparing where we were 3-4 days out then to now, that absolutely no one in the Western Carolinas and N GA should be giving up on this one. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmaker13 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Was just at Ingles and manager was talking about not having a truck in 4 days. Shelves are getting bare. Stock up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 10 minutes ago, snowmaker13 said: Was just at Ingles and manager was talking about not having a truck in 4 days. Shelves are getting bare. Stock up! Yeah between covid, the holidays, the shipment supply chain and this snow there is literally nothing to stock up on... The grocery stores are freaking bare. I moved my meat to butcher box each month myself. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 No kidding. Just 4 pages in, 84hr NAM 12km throwing the first warning shots that lot more QPF was coming west about 3-4 days out. Sounds pretty familiar. Obviously 2017 is a ridiculous benchmark, but it's clear comparing where we were 3-4 days out then to now, that absolutely no one in the Western Carolinas and N GA should be giving up on this one.Indeed and if you remember it speed up, that models shows Friday evening and we got hammered starting at 9am Friday morning. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 3 hours ago, Maggie Ace said: WPC afternoon Update just issued. Well the WPC still showing Heavy Snow for most of NC but some of the local Mets are down playing the potential winter storm saying its not as strong of storm as this last one but WPC and other Mets are saying it's going to be a slow moving storm compared to this last one so that should make up for not being as strong. Most of the ensembles are showing big dogs for all the region that the WPC map has circled in NC. Well at least the duration of the event will be longer than this last storm with impulses popping and coming thru the area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 18Z Euro was a big miss. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 5 minutes ago, wncsnow said: 18Z Euro was a big miss. Isn't that about normal to lose the storm about this timeframe? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 4 minutes ago, wncsnow said: 18Z Euro was a big miss. I haven't looked too closely yet, but it doesn't appear as if there were any changes that stood out to me at first glance. There was less moisture, and maybe the northern stream wasn't as pronounced. Maybe? Overall though, it looked similar to me. ps....I had wine with dinner and not wearing my glasses, so I could be totally wrong 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 1 minute ago, buckeyefan1 said: I haven't looked too closely yet, but it doesn't appear as if there were any changes that stood out to me at first glance. There was less moisture, and maybe the northern stream wasn't as pronounced. Maybe? Overall though, it looked similar to me. ps....I had wine with dinner and not wearing my glasses, so I could be totally wrong It's not totally different, just drier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 5 minutes ago, wncsnow said: It's not totally different, just drier There's a kink in the energy that is sitting on the western FL panhandle. It wasn't there at 12z or 0z 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowbird1230 Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Mercy at the NAM. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowbird1230 Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Totals seem off at the surface.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Not saying the NAM is right but it was one of the first models to show big totals the last overrunning event in December 2017. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 The footprint of the NAM is also a near match to the guidance issued by the WPC 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Decent run for the NAM. personally I still think this comes NW more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 RGEM is decent but we miss the heaviest moisture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Just now, wncsnow said: RGEM is decent but we miss the heaviest moisture Definitely good to see it go towards a phased solution. Excellent runs tonight so far. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 8 minutes ago, wncsnow said: RGEM is decent but we miss the heaviest moisture Luckily it’ll take less QPF than normal, even outside the mountains to produce a big one. edit: I’d love to see the NAM with 15:1 ratios factored in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Just now, BooneWX said: Luckily it’ll take less QPF than normal, even outside the mountains to produce a big one. Yeah, like you said in the other thread should be high ratios due to the cold.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 The GFS was a solid step in the right direction 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 GFS folding like a cheap lawn chair. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 It gives me about 2 inches and Statesville 5 or 6. Just need another 75 mile shift and we are golden. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 It gives me about 2 inches and Statesville 5 or 6. Just need another 75 mile shift and we are golden. Blanked here but majors moves compared to previous runs. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 CMC amped, more phasing, NW 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 We are still on the edge and need the NW trend to intensify tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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