WNC_Fort Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Snowing here in Brevard! Gonna head out to grab some food and hunker down to enjoy this one! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Just now, weatherbo said: Who here is above 4000'? Im around 3500 but we have a couple that are at or around 4000'. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BretWx Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Light snow falling here now. Brightened up quite a bit! Damn this is fun. Sitting at 35/26. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxKnurd Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 4 minutes ago, weatherbo said: Who here is above 4000'? 3800’ here 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 @SnoJoe I see you lurking 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 I have that worry about the Nam as well but since the upgrade it has been an absolute putrid model. It used to be amped and juiced and now it’s as dry as the Sahara. I don’t buy it’s precip or Synoptics not one bit. The one thing I do buy tho is it’s thermals and THAT is what is making me have some reservations. With the low cutting to Dollywood that of course is going to screw up the thermals so it’s almost like a wash in some way. Idk man My goal post was 6”. May have to temper that down to 4” with the expectation I would be pleasantly surprised in the end. Down to 34/24 and it feels bone chilling out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Anybody had a chance to dive in and see if obs over the Deep South are matching model runs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sarcean Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 6 minutes ago, weatherbo said: Who here is above 4000'? Staying at a cabin over 5000’ tonight. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmaker13 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 1 minute ago, BooneWX said: Anybody had a chance to dive in and see if obs over the Deep South are matching model runs? here is a good obs site https://mping.ou.edu/display 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckethead Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Who here is above 4000'?I'm at 4400'.Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 3 minutes ago, BooneWX said: Anybody had a chance to dive in and see if obs over the Deep South are matching model runs? I’m curious about the high pressure as well. Is it modeled too weak or is it stronger as of right now compared to the forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 HRRR SPC Hourly 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 hrrr at 18 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Well hopefully literally all the modeling is more accurate than GSP's new forecast... From 12-18 when the watch first came out down to 3-4.... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowbird1230 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Welp 12z Euro and GFS both with a foot for me but my NWS forecast is 100% chance of rain. Anyone else seeing goofy things like that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 1 minute ago, SnowDawg said: Well hopefully literally all the modeling is more accurate than GSP's new forecast... From 12-18 when the watch first came out down to 3-4.... Big hit for sure round here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AshVegas Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 3 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said: hrrr at 18 FBRV snow going to the crapper real fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Clown show at nws_GSP. They've had Clemson go from 4-6 to 2-4 to Trace to 2-3 and now 1-2. The whole time models have supported 2-4 inches and honestly they have not wavered at all, and if anything I would say they support more like 3-5 forecast at this point. I'm starting to think there are some guys working there that like to forecast snow, and other guys who come in for a new shift that love to slash totals... wash, rinse, repeat. lol 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 I can't make any sense of this. They basically have me getting nothing from the front end ahead of the warm nose. There is literally no model support for this... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 I mean if the Upstate gets 100% sleet it will add up to 2 or more inches.... and GSP says that graphic includes sleet accumulations. I just don't get these guys. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 I went from 12-18 to 4-6. Kinda sucks but 4 to 6 is ok. I still think 6 to 8 is more likely taking a model blend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxduncan Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 6 minutes ago, SnowDawg said: Well hopefully literally all the modeling is more accurate than GSP's new forecast... From 12-18 when the watch first came out down to 3-4.... Wow what happen everything I seen so far from afternoon guidance shows me in morganton getting around 4-6inches. Seems like they think this is just going to be a ICE storm now for almost everyone even the mtns. Those totals up there got cut a good 8 inches or more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Lol my projection an hour ago is now my “1 in 10” chance. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 2 minutes ago, wncsnow said: I went from 12-18 to 4-6. Kinda sucks but 4 to 6 is ok. I still think 6 to 8 is more likely taking a model blend. Dropped to around 2" with .1-.3 of ice. NW part of the county dropped to 2-4 total for snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxduncan Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 But yet all the models say otherwise so far. Lets hope there right and not this bs.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 RGEM still looks solid. NWS is basically taking the 3KM NAM (least snowy model) and predicting that will happen 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 NWS Atlanta clearly in complete disagreement with GSP with regards to NE GA. This is from their afternoon weather briefing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 RGEM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ja643y Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 No real idea, looking for some input. Is there anything to the low level circulation of the winds down near Louisiana coast? Could that be where the LP tries to "jump south" over the next few hours as some of the models show? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 1 minute ago, wncsnow said: RGEM still looks solid. NWS is basically taking the 3KM NAM (least snowy model) and predicting that will happen Gosh, even the 3km gives me 10 inches Kuchera. I know some of that is sleet but I can't find an ounce of model support for those cuts in SW NC/Northern Upstate/far NE GA. The 18z 3k went back towards a snowier solution at that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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