Tyler Penland Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Clocking into work, hope to be done by 5 so I can be in Boone by 7. Almost gametime!!!! (Also I forgot it was MLK weekend, hotel prices are astronomical)I'm amazed you even got a room. Town was PACKED last night. Sent from my Pixel 5 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Sometimes it’s a good idea to look at things downstream. This is part of MOB’s morning disco. I’d recommend reading the rest as they’re a damn good crew. This is what you want to see for a bigger Mnt/FH snow!.NEAR TERM UPDATE /Now Through Sunday/...An upper level shortwavetrough dives south over the Plains tonight, organizing into aclosed low as it moves. The upper low moves east over the LowerMississippi River Valley to over the forecast area by Sunday nightas a decreasingly positively tilted system, then increasinglynegatively tilted as it moves east of the forecast area lateSaturday night through Sunday. A surface low that has developedover Texas this afternoon moves east-southeast along the northernGulf coast to over the forecast area by early Saturday evening. Aweak warm front organizes along the Gulf coast tonight ahead ofthe approaching surface low, but with relatively weak low levelsoutherly flow ahead of approaching system, the front will remainalong the coast. A strong cold front moves east over the forecastarea beginning Saturday night, ushering in a colder and drierairmass.. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Analyzing sounding even in Cherokee County where it shows green precip, the warm nose is meager. Its not this massive pronounced deal like we see sometimes down in those areas. Even in the NC/GA/TN border the warmest the surface gets is 40 degrees, and that is right at the surface. The parcel falls in nearly frozen air the whole time. A sleet/snow mix would occur then. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 2 minutes ago, Hvward said: 12z NAM Looking to not slam the low into WNC, changes coming here. Looks to handle the transfer a tad bit cleaner. Opps jk, it pops it in ETN? Weird 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BretWx Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mwp1023 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 We are riding it out up near west Jefferson. We are at 2500' so I hope the mixing is minimal and mostly snow. Sitting at 29 right now. We need to head into town for one more run before the snow hits 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 That back end band is going to thump some folks 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 850s are definitely cooler this run of the NAM. Think you’re seeing it play catch-up a bit. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncjoaquin Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Just give me the moisture. I will take my chances with cold air and precip type. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Just now, ncjoaquin said: Just give me the moisture. I will take my chances with cold air and precip type. I think we just found a signature statement here! 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BretWx Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 3km NAM showing a solid 9-10hrs of snow through hr27. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BretWx Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 LP went from around Macon to Dollywood in an hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Just now, BretWx said: LP went from around Macon to Dollywood in an hour Has to be resolving the system incorrectly. The isobars suggest it’s still in middle Georgia on that frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 HV3 looks sweet 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BretWx Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 THERE WE GO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 I know it’s strong but color me shocked if a low in Charleston produces sleet and freezing rain all the way to the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Yea for me seeing those changes at 500 I don’t really care what the surface ends up showing because it’ll still correct. It was pretty noticeable too between 21-27 what changes were happening downstream Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Not bad runs overall 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 10 minutes ago, Tyler Penland said: I'm amazed you even got a room. Town was PACKED last night. Sent from my Pixel 5 using Tapatalk I got lucky and found a room at 2 am this morning. Had to use all my Hilton honors points and it still cost $45 lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Candler Gets 9" on the Nam3km and Downtown Asheville gets a dusting.. Fun forecast here. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BretWx Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 This placement gives us a better shot at the back end. NAM's making things interesting. Love it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BretWx Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 7 minutes ago, Hvward said: Candler Gets 9" on the Nam3km and Downtown Asheville gets a dusting.. Fun forecast here. Praying for all the Mets RN. More than a dusting... Don't get the jumpers anxious! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BretWx Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Not buying it: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BretWx Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 I don't see AVL losing .51 QPF to ZR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 1 minute ago, BretWx said: Not buying it: Yeah that looks like a stretch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncjoaquin Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 5 minutes ago, Hvward said: Candler Gets 9" on the Nam3km and Downtown Asheville gets a dusting.. Fun forecast here. Well. I am in Candler, so I like the 9 inches part. I still think the models are overdoing that. I have seen a difference before, but not 9 inches,lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LiQuiDBuD Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 So the NAM used to be the king at CAD modeling but now just completely poos the bed at it?Sent from my Pixel 6 Pro using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 3 minutes ago, BretWx said: Not buying it: I would love to see the sleet graphics. It would be something fierce 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BretWx Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Got to run errands and take a quick breather (LOL) . I'll be back around lunch time. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Just now, BretWx said: Got to run errands and take a quick breather (LOL) . I'll be back around lunch time. You can Blame Cantore for the Frz rain in Asheville, as he's headed there lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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