wncsnow Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Tonight's HRRR is faster than previous runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 SREF plumes look like crap! We toss! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Just now, franklin NCwx said: SREF plumes look like crap! We toss! Means the NAM is gonna suck too. Figured it might torch the mid levels even worse than last run.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 I think we have a brief, very light changeover as the low transfers and we lose lift. By that time the heavy forcing has come through with most of the event. Then we wait on the backside upper low to swing thru.Hoping the backside really comes through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Just now, wncsnow said: Means the NAM is gonna suck too. Figured it might torch the mid levels even worse than last run.. Probably. It's dropping 1.5 qpf with 5 inches of snow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Just now, strongwxnc said: Hoping the backside really comes through . Me too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Just now, franklin NCwx said: Probably. It's dropping 1.5 qpf with 5 inches of snow Ouch. Do you have one for my area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kristospherein Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 1 hour ago, westmc9th said: Excited to drive back up tomorrow! I’ve missed my mountains and gonna be fun to experience it in a new place! Cabin is about 2500’ near Brevard. Let’s reel it in! Same. I'm getting the heck out of south Charlotte. Don't want any of that 0.5 inch of ice and 25-35mph winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 1 minute ago, wncsnow said: Ouch. Do you have one for my area? For Morganton it has 2.5 inches of snow with 1.4qpf. For Asheville it has 5 inches and 1.5 qpf. Probably some big Rainers in that run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Just now, franklin NCwx said: For Morganton it has 2.5 inches of snow with 1.4qpf. For Asheville it has 5 inches and 1.5 qpf. Probably some big Rainers in that run Dang. Thats gonna be some awful ZR if true Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 23 minutes ago, LiQuiDBuD said: Yikes. I see a period of ZR and mix really close to me. Maybe that's just heavy, heavy rates that get confused with ZR/mix? Not sure if that's even a possibility, but I'm just hoping against ZR IMBY. Edit: Oh and I wanna see ridiculously heavy rates with fatties. Goes without saying. Sent from my Pixel 6 Pro using Tapatalk I’ve lived in the foothills a vast majority of my life and the rule of thumb I’ve always had in most of these setups is that sleet overperforms and saves the day during a transition. Let’s hope that rule of thumb continues but I definitely think my area spends more time as snow, snow/sleet than much else. The warm nose is prevalent on the sounding but it’s not honking at Zr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmaker13 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 0z national blend of models now has under 6 inches of Snow for asheville. Should have managed my expectations better. Expecting 3-6 inches with 1.5 of sleet/freezing rain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Als23 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Not a fan of heavy wet snow. Cost me $4k 2018 for tree removal. It was fun as a kid. Not so much these days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 1 minute ago, snowmaker13 said: 0z national blend of models now has under 6 inches of Snow for asheville. Should have managed my expectations better. Expecting 3-6 inches with 1.5 of sleet/freezing rain. Post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BretWx Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Please keep the weenie sh*t out of here and go into the main thread. Things still look good. CHILL. 9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Yeah we don't live nor die by one model run. The top dog models have been stellar these past several days. Hold steady gents. There is a thing as too much model watching. You'll make yourself go crazy. 4 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Just now, Met1985 said: Yeah we don't live nor die by one model run. The top dog models have been stellar these past several days. Hold steady gents. There is a thing as too much model watching. You'll make yourself go crazy. This! 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AshVegas Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 6 minutes ago, snowmaker13 said: 0z national blend of models now has under 6 inches of Snow for asheville. Should have managed my expectations better. Expecting 3-6 inches with 1.5 of sleet/freezing rain. Data, please? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 7 minutes ago, snowmaker13 said: 0z national blend of models now has under 6 inches of Snow for asheville. Should have managed my expectations better. Expecting 3-6 inches with 1.5 of sleet/freezing rain. Don't post. I'd step away until tomorrow morning from the models or just wait until the GFS and Euro run. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 HRRR isn't too bad but the low track is wonky as hell 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AshVegas Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Just now, BretWx said: LOL Oh....ok. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Our ULL has officially closed off. Guess we can let the nowcasting begin and track how this thing digs. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 LOL That blend is spot on for my area what GSP thinks… . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Our ULL has officially closed off. Guess we can let the nowcasting begin and track how this thing digs.Awesome! Game on!. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 5 minutes ago, BretWx said: LOL I'll cash out right now. Ready to wake up tomorrow morning (I'm staying up for at least the GFS run if not more) and read the obs reports before I head to Boone after work! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Don’t let any model run distract you from the fact that we were golfing and fishing 2 weeks ago. Just enjoy the moment. 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 NAM tries to put down a inch or so here with rhe first band of precip tomorrow evening 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PantherJustin Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 16 minutes ago, BretWx said: Please keep the weenie sh*t out of here and go into the main thread. Things still look good. CHILL. Exactly…. The Main thread is insanely Whiny. I find it funny it’s Doom n Gloom yet all CLT Mets haven’t budged a bit Crum especially at TWC 10-20” for Mountains 5-10” for Me but if you just hug models you wouldn’t see that. Experience…..> Models 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 NAM tries to put down a inch or so here with rhe first band of precip tomorrow evening Any addition word be helpful fore sure . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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