BretWx Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Phew. I will believe it when I see it! Saturday Night: A slight chance of rain and snow before 7pm, then snow. Low around 23. North northeast wind 6 to 11 mph becoming east southeast in the evening. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible. Sunday: Snow. High near 27. North northeast wind 11 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 7 to 11 inches possible. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 NWS only looking at 5 to 11 inches for around my area but im not worried. Shoot ill take a few inches and be good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Icon is absolutely unloading on WNC at hr 42 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 17 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: Probably seeing the NAM bias of being skimpy with QPF. Hard to think it use to be so overrode with it. Yeah, if we underperform on QPF around here it's almost always from getting screwed by a massive dry slot followed by paltry wrap around, not from less in the front end. If anything, more times than not we overperform with the front end thump from the orographic lift the models don't see well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Beautiful deform band swinging through at 51 to put the final touches on the storm 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BretWx Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 This is the worst part of tracking storms... When the short range comes in and everyone starts jumping. RELAX. It's part of the fun! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Icon is absolutely unloading on WNC at hr 42Let’s see them maps . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BretWx Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Just now, strongwxnc said: Let’s see them maps . 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 2 minutes ago, BretWx said: Same model that still shows 7" for the Triad when we will be lucky to get 1". Mountain folks will get theirs for sure. But that warm air is a comin' Sunday afternoon. The ICON isnt accounting for that at all. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 RGEM still looks good 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 RGEM still looks goodIt’s going to be so interesting to see where the war zone is between snow and non-snow on that the line that rides just east of the foothills.. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowbird1230 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 41 minutes ago, Met1985 said: NWS only looking at 5 to 11 inches for around my area but im not worried. Shoot ill take a few inches and be good Enjoy Met.. Graham County under the warning also but then the forecast only gives us 1/2" of snow the entire event. Snowbird out.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 6 minutes ago, snowbird1230 said: Enjoy Met.. Graham County under the warning also but then the forecast only gives us 1/2" of snow the entire event. Snowbird out.. Meh we will just see how things work out. Im not too worried at all. Just interesting that's all. These storms have a mind of there own. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BretWx Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Another solid GFS run. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sw NC weather Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 19 minutes ago, snowbird1230 said: Enjoy Met.. Graham County under the warning also but then the forecast only gives us 1/2" of snow the entire event. Snowbird out.. I think you’ll do better than that with the backside swinging thru! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 One thing that seems off about some of the model runs is that it shows heavy snow to heavy freezing rain from one frame to another back to heavy snow. To me that is off and that is telling me there is some feedback issues with the surface to precipitation outputs. Not that im worried but I think this is a flaw in the models with this system.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Also we are seeing a better setup of NW flow behind the storm with bitter cold temps flowing in. Don't be surprised to see warnings kept up long for the border counties... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Guys I alluded to this in the winter storm main chat but I would REALLY pay attention to that monstrous upper level low swinging through a lot of our area, because on the backside the winds are gonna turn, it’s going to bring some even colder air and from what I just saw on the GFS there could be a pretty nice convective band that traverses. That is almost always under modeled until short range models are almost at kickoff 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 2 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: Guys I alluded to this in the winter storm main chat but I would REALLY pay attention to that monstrous upper level low swinging through a lot of our area, because on the backside the winds are gonna turn, it’s going to bring some even colder air and from what I just saw on the GFS there could be a pretty nice convective band that traverses. That is almost always under modeled until short range models are almost at kickoff Yep just what I alluded to. I've seen these bands in the past give an extra 4 to 8 inches that wasn't even forecast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AshVegas Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Always love the FBV snowhole. We've all seen this progressively get worse as winter storms get closer. However, can't complain too much about 6"+. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 I think the rates will overcome any sort of warmth in the mid levels for most in the Mnts. Also bear in mind the higher elevations will likely be looking at maybe a 12-1 vs 10-1 ratio if the temps maintain a upper 20’s profile. . 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BretWx Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 I remember using this back in the day (a few years ago) - I wonder if the data is outdated or...? The banner at the top says you need NWS login. Ha! https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/users/meg/gefs_plumes/index.html?stationname=KAVL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 10 minutes ago, Met1985 said: Yep just what I alluded to. I've seen these bands in the past give an extra 4 to 8 inches that wasn't even forecast. Exactly! 2014 same type of ULL swing through. Forecasted 1-3/2-4 type deal got like 9”. It snowed so freakin hard it was incredible 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainforrest Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Jason Boyer my man!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 I like Panovich's in-house futurecast for western areas. Looks like snow for the mountains the entire time and a very long duration event: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 7 minutes ago, BretWx said: I remember using this back in the day (a few years ago) - I wonder if the data is outdated or...? The banner at the top says you need NWS login. Ha! https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/users/meg/gefs_plumes/index.html?stationname=KAVL Although I think it's the same data, I use this site : https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/srefplumes/ and no mention of a update or NWS login. Oh wait no, the one I linked is in relation to the Nam I believe, and yours is GEFS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Loving this point-and-click forecast for my in-laws outside Black Mountain (9-15 through Sunday...): That sure beats the one for MBY in North Hickory which has steadily decreased the potential for snow (3-5 through Sunday...): 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Here's GSP's latest expected snowfall map. Numbers going down for NW piedmont but remaining quite strong in mountain areas: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncjoaquin Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 17 minutes ago, Rainforrest said: Jason Boyer my man!! What was his forecast? I am sure it was huge for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainforrest Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 18-24” all of Transylvania southern Jackson and parts of Henderson counties. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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