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2021-2022 Fall/Winter Mountains Thread


BlueRidgeFolklore
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Phew. I will believe it when I see it! 

Saturday Night: A slight chance of rain and snow before 7pm, then snow. Low around 23. North northeast wind 6 to 11 mph becoming east southeast in the evening. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.


Sunday: Snow. High near 27. North northeast wind 11 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 7 to 11 inches possible.

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  On 1/14/2022 at 8:42 PM, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

Probably seeing the NAM bias of being skimpy with QPF. Hard to think it use to be so overrode with it. 

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Yeah, if we underperform on QPF around here it's almost always from getting screwed by a massive dry slot followed by paltry wrap around, not from less in the front end. If anything, more times than not we overperform with the front end thump from the orographic lift the models don't see well. 

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  On 1/14/2022 at 9:44 PM, snowbird1230 said:

Enjoy Met.. Graham County under the warning also but then the forecast only gives us 1/2" of snow the entire event.

Snowbird out..

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Meh we will just see how things work out. Im not too worried at all. Just interesting that's all. These storms have a mind of there own.

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One thing that seems off about some of the model runs is that it shows heavy snow to heavy freezing rain from one frame to another back to heavy snow.  To me that is off and that is telling me there is some feedback issues with the surface to precipitation outputs.  Not that im worried but I think this is a flaw in the models with this system....

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Guys I alluded to this in the winter storm main chat but I would REALLY pay attention to that monstrous upper level low swinging through a lot of our area, because on the backside the winds are gonna turn, it’s going to bring some even colder air and from what I just saw on the GFS there could be a pretty nice convective band that traverses. That is almost always under modeled until short range models are almost at kickoff 

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  On 1/14/2022 at 10:06 PM, Buddy1987 said:

Guys I alluded to this in the winter storm main chat but I would REALLY pay attention to that monstrous upper level low swinging through a lot of our area, because on the backside the winds are gonna turn, it’s going to bring some even colder air and from what I just saw on the GFS there could be a pretty nice convective band that traverses. That is almost always under modeled until short range models are almost at kickoff 

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Yep just what I alluded to. I've seen these bands in the past give an extra 4 to 8 inches that wasn't even forecast. 

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  On 1/14/2022 at 10:17 PM, BretWx said:

I remember using this back in the day (a few years ago) - I wonder if the data is outdated or...? The banner at the top says you need NWS login. Ha!

https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/users/meg/gefs_plumes/index.html?stationname=KAVL

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Although I think it's the same data, I use this site https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/srefplumes/ and no mention of a update or NWS login.

 

Oh wait no, the one I linked is in relation to the Nam I believe, and yours is GEFS.

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