LiQuiDBuD Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 yep thats me!Me too, NWFS rarely impacts me but SEFS is my jam!Sent from my Pixel 6 Pro using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainforrest Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 2 minutes ago, LiQuiDBuD said: Me too, NWFS rarely impacts me but SEFS is my jam! Sent from my Pixel 6 Pro using Tapatalk Heck yeah 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 6 minutes ago, BretWx said: I may be wrong, but I've always assumed my location is in the escarpment - Maybe it's just my elevation facing East fooling me. Oh I think the Hendersonville area will be in the rake zone as well 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Alchemist Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 I think the possible sweet spot zone is Highlands, Cashiers, Brevard, Zirconia, Saluda, Etowah, Dana up toward Gerton. Somebody along that line jackpots with 22 - 24 inches Edit: unless your on Mitchell, I think 36 - 40 is almost a given up there 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainforrest Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 minute ago, The Alchemist said: I think the possible sweet spot zone is Highlands, Cashiers, Brevard, Zirconia, Saluda, Etowah, Dana up toward Gerton. Somebody along that line jackpots with 22 - 24 inches Southern escarpment should get dumped on. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 12 minutes ago, The Alchemist said: I think the possible sweet spot zone is Highlands, Cashiers, Brevard, Zirconia, Saluda, Etowah, Dana up toward Gerton. Somebody along that line jackpots with 22 - 24 inches Edit: unless your on Mitchell, I think 36 - 40 is almost a given up there Agree 100%! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 These are one of my favorite storms when you guys are getting annihilated to my southwest, I look at the radar and its just a wall of dark greens and yellows streaming on in! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow dog Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 14 minutes ago, The Alchemist said: I think the possible sweet spot zone is Highlands, Cashiers, Brevard, Zirconia, Saluda, Etowah, Dana up toward Gerton. Somebody along that line jackpots with 22 - 24 inches Edit: unless your on Mitchell, I think 36 - 40 is almost a given up there What part of Saluda are you in? I own a house there (Lake Hosea), just outside town limits. WOuld love to head up there this weekend but have too much here in Greenville to make it this weekend.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BhamParker Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Can’t wait to read the AFD from the NWS. I’d imagine warnings would be going out tonight or in the morning? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 11 minutes ago, BhamParker said: Can’t wait to read the AFD from the NWS. I’d imagine warnings would be going out tonight or in the morning? Curious to read their thoughts on the mid layers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Can’t wait to read the AFD from the NWS. I’d imagine warnings would be going out tonight or in the morning? Normally would be the overnight tonight/tomorrow morning. With how early they put out the watch I could see a portion of the watch going warning this afternoon. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Diving into the 850s on the GFS, it looks good for almost everyone, including most of the foothills after a brief trip to the 1-2 degree mark. Let’s hope it continues at 18z but like we said earlier - wildly consistent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 This NAM run kinda sucks. Its further south which allows for less moisture with the front end, but still switches over. Will be lower totals. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowbird1230 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 GSP upgrading to Warnings Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BretWx Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 10 minutes ago, wncsnow said: This NAM run kinda sucks. Its further south which allows for less moisture with the front end, but still switches over. Will be lower totals. Not TOO bad... I would be happy with a 6-8in storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Just now, BretWx said: Not TOO bad... I would be happy with a 6-8in storm! I would too but I don't like the trend of slower arrival and lighter precip with the front end if the NAM and HRRR are right 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 HRRR was setting up to be a really nice hit for western NC on the 18z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 12 minutes ago, wncsnow said: This NAM run kinda sucks. Its further south which allows for less moisture with the front end, but still switches over. Will be lower totals. It's an improvement over 12z but it's the slowest model and struggling with the transfer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Hi Res NAM lowered its totals from 12 Z too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Just now, franklin NCwx said: It's an improvement over 12z but it's the slowest model and struggling with the transfer Can't stress this enough. The LP isn't going to visit Murphy/Highlands/Franklin. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Just trends to watch, not favorable trends if you want what the NWS snow map depicts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BretWx Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 3 minutes ago, Tyler Penland said: Can't stress this enough. The LP isn't going to visit Murphy/Highlands/Franklin. Seems like it’s had really bad feedback issues the past several runs. Not sure what’s up with it but it also performed miserably with the storm a week or so ago if I remember correctly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BretWx Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 3 minutes ago, Tyler Penland said: Can't stress this enough. The LP isn't going to visit Murphy/Highlands/Franklin. Exactly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 minute ago, snowbird1230 said: GSP upgrading to Warnings .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 300 PM Friday...Winter Storm Watches will be upgraded to Warnings with this afternoon forecast package, as confidence continues to increase in a significant winter event this weekend. A strong low pressure system will track from the Lower MS Valley thru the Deep South Saturday night, then across the Carolinas Sunday, lifting NE of the area Sunday night. Models are in good agreement on the track and overall evolution of the cyclone. Strong forcing and ample moisture will provide a period of solid precip band crossing the area late Saturday night thru at mid-aftn Sunday, then a dry slot will punch in from the south and a deformation zone will pivot over the area Sunday evening. There will be nice supply of cold air, as a 1030-1035 mb sfc high will move across the Great Lakes to New England, causing strong hybrid cold air damming. So the forecast is on track for the mountains to get mostly snow with this entire event. Where it remains murky (as usual) is across most of the Piedmont, especially along I-85 and to the south. The 12z models have trended stronger with a warm nose punching in with the warm conveyor belt, transitioning snow to sleet and freezing rain. In fact, it starts out warm enough that our southern zones from Elbert to Chester counties go straight from rain to freezing rain. The latest trends result an uptick in ice accums across the entire Piedmont, and less snow/sleet. Either way, confidence is high enough on snow, sleet and/or ice impacts to upgrade the entire watch to a warning. Damaging accumulations of ice continue to appear more likely along and south of a line from Anderson to Spartanburg to Gastonia, to Salisbury, including Charlotte and vicinity. Northwest of there, morning snow/sleet followed by a likely transition to freezing rain/drizzle of a few hours is expected to result in a somewhat narrow zone of a mixed bag of accums of 2 to 5 inches. Gusty NE winds within the CAD will add to the threat of power outages as ice accums on sides of wires, branches and poles. The forecast for the mountains and NC foothills continues to look on track, where 8-12 inches/locally higher amounts of mostly snow continue to look like the best bet. Strong cold advection combined with snow pack in some locations will result in min temps Sun night 10-15 degrees below normal...or well below freezing in most areas, so little improvement in road conditions can be expected through Monday morning. A brief, moist northwest flow in the wake of the departing cyclone could result in additional light accums across mainly the high elevations of the TN border counties Sun night. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Probably seeing the NAM bias of being skimpy with QPF. Hard to think it use to be so overrode with it. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 i'm not sure what to think of the 18Z Nam. It's almost making me think the original LP isn't wanting to do the energy transfer, the part that acts as the wrap around has been looking better held together at the Gulf, almost as if saying it's trying to stay a Miller A instead of a hybrid. Might be a dumb description but it's strange to watch the past few Nam runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueRidgeFolklore Posted January 14, 2022 Author Share Posted January 14, 2022 5 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Just trends to watch, not favorable trends if you want what the NWS snow map depicts. It’s not a trend. NWS had a disco earlier where they were confident the LP was heading towards 95, not taking a dip in Lake Chatuge. NAM is struggling to resolve this for some reason. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainforrest Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Wow gsp forecast for me 3-7 Saturday night and 8-12 on Sunday. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BretWx Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Not sure it's anything at all, but only got up to 42 here today. Forecast was 49. Clear skies and the sun is going to set soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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