calculus1 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 8 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Hmm... That map paints Hickory in a better spot than Asheville... Making my decision tougher... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxKnurd Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 4 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said: Hopefully the gfs calmed some nerves There’s not enough lithium in the world to calm the nerves of the main board RDU weenies. I lean climatology at all times so I’ve been digging the trend for what all our pieces of energy do. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BretWx Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Have never seen so many runs in a row showing 12+ IMBY. 12z GFS has me at 16. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 10 minutes ago, calculus1 said: Hmm... That map paints Hickory in a better spot than Asheville... Making my decision tougher... But the Black Mountains (including Mt. Mitchell), just to the NE of the town of Black Mountain, get clobbered in this scenario (more than two feet). So, being just to their SW could be beneficial too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, calculus1 said: But the Black Mountains (including Mt. Mitchell), just to the NE of the town of Black Mountain, get clobbered in this scenario (more than two feet). So, being just to their SW could be beneficial too. Black Mountain will get crushed, the lower totals usually aren't until you get closer to the French Broad valley and Asheville. Obviously Hickory should do pretty well but a much higher chance of mixing with sleet 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BretWx Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Also, just looking at a solid 24+ hours of snow has me thrilled. It has been a WHILE. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowbird1230 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 13 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said: Hopefully the gfs calmed some nerves Not mine!! Continually shows Graham County getting the shaft!! Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueRidgeFolklore Posted January 13, 2022 Author Share Posted January 13, 2022 3 minutes ago, calculus1 said: But the Black Mountains (including Mt. Mitchell), just to the NE of the town of Black Mountain, get clobbered in this scenario (more than two feet). So, being just to their SW could be beneficial too. That “V” of lower totals on the GFS coming into Asheville from Madison County, is due to the French Broad River Valley funneling in warmer air from TN. That’s always a battleground area with CAD. In these setups, AVL isn’t Black Mountain. Black Mountain will do well. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxKnurd Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 3 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Black Mountain will get crushed, the lower totals usually aren't until you get closer to the French Broad valley and Asheville. Obviously Hickory should do pretty well but a much higher chance of mixing with sleet Yea, based on everything up to this point it’s a gamble of stay home for an all-timer in Hickory if all snow (top 5-10 even if it mixes) or go to Black Mountain for top 5 event there with an outside chance at an all timer. Can’t go wrong either way IMO. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 6 minutes ago, BlueRidgeFolklore said: That “V” of lower totals on the GFS coming into Asheville from Madison County, is due to the French Broad River Valley funneling in warmer air from TN. That’s always a battleground area with CAD. In these setups, AVL isn’t Black Mountain. Black Mountain will do well. That's most helpful with the local topography, @BlueRidgeFolklore. Thanks for explaining that. I think I'm pretty near set on heading up the mountain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 This will be the best GEFS run for the mtns yet. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 I'll have to rely on local cocorahs reports to get an estimate for my own home, though. There will probably still be a lot left around on Monday afternoon, though, assuming we can make it home then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, calculus1 said: I'll have to rely on local cocorahs reports to get an estimate for my own home, though. There will probably still be a lot left around on Monday afternoon, though, assuming we can make it home then. Making it home may be tricky even then . Black mountain can get in on some NWFS too (usually in squalls) and there will be a good bit of it behind the storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: Over a foot on the ensemble mean.. wow.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: Dang thats a beautiful sight! Thank gosh we are getting consistency. Last one up is the EURO... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BhamParker Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Would love to selfishly hear some of yalls guesses for lake toxaway? If we can find a war to stay mostly snow then it may get silly. This thread is awesome. Wish I lived up here with you Mountain folks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, BhamParker said: Would love to selfishly hear some of yalls guesses for lake toxaway? If we can find a war to stay mostly snow then it may get silly. This thread is awesome. Wish I lived up here with you Mountain folks. Should be a really good spot. Elevation and lift from the southern escarpment with the trajectory of the precip should be money. One of two jackpot areas I’m thinking. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LiQuiDBuD Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Would love to selfishly hear some of yalls guesses for lake toxaway? If we can find a war to stay mostly snow then it may get silly. This thread is awesome. Wish I lived up here with you Mountain folks. Lake Toxaway is in a prime location for orographic enhancement on storms like these in my experience. If it stays all snow, my guess would be 18" safely. Sent from my Pixel 6 Pro using Tapatalk 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 3 minutes ago, BhamParker said: Would love to selfishly hear some of yalls guesses for lake toxaway? If we can find a war to stay mostly snow then it may get silly. This thread is awesome. Wish I lived up here with you Mountain folks. Yeah I think that will be a great spot. The mountains in general are going to be sitting pretty... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Need to get some propane for the propane heater.. This will be the first true snow for my 18 month old son, I can't wait to see his reaction 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BhamParker Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, Maggie Ace said: So I've already starting contingency planning for Sunday/Monday. I'll be hosting guests at both of our rentals. Not sure out of town guests will be leaving as currently scheduled. I sure hope we make it out some point Monday. Our owners of who we are renting for are adamant that the community has a plan and budget for snow storms, but this may not be what they are used to expecting. I’ve chased a lot of storms and been lucky to never get stuck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, Maggie Ace said: So I've already starting contingency planning for Sunday/Monday. I'll be hosting guests at both of our rentals. Not sure out of town guests will be leaving as currently scheduled. Yeah especially if we get temps in the single digits... Game over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxKnurd Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 I’m swinging by the store when I get back after lunch, need to grab tire chains (that I was gonna get way back in October before my Wyoming trip, where I desperately needed them) so I can get up and down the mountain once I’m off the pavement and then run the generator between now and Saturday night along with some possible dead limb and tree cleanup to save myself a possible headache. All that with moving some stuff on Saturday morning and early afternoon sandwiched in between. But I wouldn’t have it any other way 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNC_Fort Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 When's the last time we had such a high-ensemble mean? Dec 2018? Really enjoy following along with you guys! Been far too long. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 The UK takes an almost perfect track for WNC 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BretWx Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 22 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Need to get some propane for the propane heater.. This will be the first true snow for my 18 month old son, I can't wait to see his reaction I'm headed out after my meeting at 1PM. Hopefully Tractor Supply's tank still has some in it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 When's the last time we had such a high-ensemble mean? Dec 2018? Really enjoy following along with you guys! Been far too long.December 18 is what I remember. Biggest snow I've seen in my life at 16". Completely shut down Boone for 2 days which is unheard of. Sent from my Pixel 5 using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BretWx Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, Tyler Penland said: December 18 is what I remember. Biggest snow I've seen in my life at 16". Completely shut down Boone for 2 days which is unheard of. Sent from my Pixel 5 using Tapatalk Measured 15in IMBY during that one. Unreal experience. Couldn't leave the house for 4 days, haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 This was the biggest one for me while I lived up there 18” at my place off of New Stock Rd including flow snow. We were lucky to lose power for only 54 hours. It looked like a war zone with abandoned vehicles & trees down everywhere! https://www.weather.gov/gsp/18-20DecemberWinterStorm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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