Tyler Penland Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 13 minutes ago, Met1985 said: Yeah the low is not as far south on the NAM but I personally don't trust the NAM especially after this past storm and the jumping around of this storm. I believe NAM stands for "Not Accurate Much". At least that's what I've read on countless weenie threads. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 1 hour ago, wncsnow said: HRRR is mostly rain except above 3k. Look at those totals in WV! Rain at 3k feet too with that track. Congrats Eastern KY and WV 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 32 minutes ago, Tyler Penland said: I believe NAM stands for "Not Accurate Much". At least that's what I've read on countless weenie threads. Exactly! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 44 minutes ago, Met1985 said: Exactly! Almost all of the short range models have a track right over the mountains now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 Just now, wncsnow said: Almost all of the short range models have a trach right over the mountains now I think the more amped it is it could be pulled further north but give way more credit towards the GFS and the EURO especially with the recent track record of the short range models recently. Sure it could happen but the short range models have been piss poor as of late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 GFS still looks like a solid hit for the border counties. Takes the low up just East of the Apps. Like like a decent 2 to 4 to 3 to 6 in the high elevations right along the border. Im excited for this little event. Cold temps to start and crashing temps into the teens and possibly single digits by Friday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 The NAM has been awful since it’s “upgrade”, there’s really no debating that. It actual has a dry bias now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 Just now, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: The NAM has been awful since it’s “upgrade”, there’s really no debating that. It actual has a dry bias now. Yeah this past storm it literally changed every single model run. Doesn't give me a reliable model feel at all. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 17 minutes ago, Maggie Ace said: Yeah, I see more positive than negative this time. Looks like we start as snow in Haywood County with temperatures in the low to mid 30’s at my house and crash from there. GFS increase totals just a bit with that heavier snow band tomorrow afternoon. Yep and watch out for a bit of flow snow on the backside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 To be fair the GFS did catch on to the last system better than most (UK showed it first) BUT it was the most off on snow totals. It had at least 5 inches to as much as over a foot for AVL every single model run for a few days and they got an inch. I would proceed carefully with GFS snowmaps. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 19 minutes ago, wncsnow said: To be fair the GFS did catch on to the last system better than most (UK showed it first) BUT it was the most off on snow totals. It had at least 5 inches to as much as over a foot for AVL every single model run for a few days and they got an inch. I would proceed carefully with GFS snowmaps. We going all in bro! All or nothing! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 So this will be fun. We have the short range models and the Canadian with literally a trace of snow to 1 inch and then the GFS and the Euro with a decent hit. We will see who comes out on top. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 Euro much lower precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 Well looks like the EURO goes the way of the short models. So you have every model that has drastically slashed snowfall except the GFS... This will be a good model war. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 1 minute ago, wncsnow said: Euro much lower precip This looks like the Canadian and the UKIE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 This mornings NAM run is pretty paltry on this side... Could be a trend or trash... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 GFS holds pretty steady with another decent run this morning. Pretty much nowcast time anyways. Lets get this going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 I'm not seeing this favorable pattern yet. Looks like warm up then rain then cold, before it warms up and rains again. Wash, rinse, repeat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moonhowl Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 25 minutes ago, wncsnow said: I'm not seeing this favorable pattern yet. Looks like warm up then rain then cold, before it warms up and rains again. Wash, rinse, repeat. Sounds like your average January in most of North Carolina Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BretWx Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 Not looking like anything for me down here. Maybe I'll get a few sleet pellets. Again, just glad it's not 75 degrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckethead Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 I have a 36° currently with a rn/sn mix in Wolf. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 Nothing reaching the ground here in Blowing Rock.Yay dry slots! Sent from my Pixel 5 using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 18 minutes ago, Maggie Ace said: Graupel in Maggie. What's your temp? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BretWx Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 43/27 here. Hope I get some pingers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckethead Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 I have 34 with flurries and pingers.Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sw NC weather Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 I have 39 and a rain/sleet mix at the moment. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckethead Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 34 and snow showers now in Wolf.Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LiQuiDBuD Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 Flizzard and occasional bursts of fatties here in Cashiers. Went from 46 at noon to 36.3 currently. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainforrest Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 3 minutes ago, LiQuiDBuD said: Flizzard and occasional bursts of fatties here in Cashiers. Went from 46 at noon to 36.3 currently. Same here in toxaway 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 Still fighting off the mid level dry air here. Looks ominous outside and temp has dropped about 5 degrees so far though. Sent from my Pixel 5 using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now