Tyler Penland Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 1 hour ago, buckeyefan1 said: *looks at timestamp* Ah another day 10 map. I'll believe it when I see it. I've already had more than I had expected to get out of this 2nd straight Nina winter. I guess if you set your bar low enough you're good with anything. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 The Nam kinda sucks for Buncombe and areas east, but decent for border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 A weird run on the NAM but the GFS will be rolling in soon. Just one run at a time. This is going to be one of those time I think last minute adjustments to the low will produce or take away.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 An even better run yet again from the GFS. Slow but positive changes for us over on this side of the storm. Definitely some decent totals and more expensive snow cover showing up. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Yep, the leeside minimum rears its ugly head once again. Ugh. Can we not get a traditional gulf storm system?Yeah a wide spread non warm noise GOM bomb… can’t be that hard to come by…. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 16 minutes ago, Maggie Ace said: If the GFS is to be believed, we'll start as snow and not liquid precip. Yeah this is the best run so far. Great trends today by the EURO and the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Again the the ground temp is taking a beating, we have cold air in place, and this is a decent setup with some very cold air behind the system. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 6z HRRR was a massive improvement in the border counties. Big qpf increase. Sent from my Pixel 5 using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherHawk Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 21 minutes ago, Tyler Penland said: 6z HRRR was a massive improvement in the border counties. Big qpf increase. Sent from my Pixel 5 using Tapatalk Yep…a few ravens were in the back yard talking about this. Agree that the nwf could be a little thump. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Afraid this one is going the wrong direction fellas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 1 minute ago, Maggie Ace said: Still looking like an Advisory level event across the TN border Counties to me. It is but models have been trending down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 13 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Afraid this one is going the wrong direction fellas 12Z 12k NAM had the LP over Monroe this run, it was over SW VA last run. I kind of see this playing out very similar to last system. Just not as much qpf. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 12Z 12k NAM had the LP over Monroe this run, it was over SW VA last run. I kind of see this playing out very similar to last system. Just not as much qpf. Run was an improvement IMBY. Shows about 4-5" over most of Watauga. Sent from my Pixel 5 using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 let's keep that southeast trend going, little more south and east we're in business. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Still looks good right on the border counties. If you are away from the border you are not going to see much at all. I'd say 1-3 inches is a fair bet with much better ground conditions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 On the Tennessee side of the Mountains they have issued a WSW for 3-7 inches of snow 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Ashe-Alleghany NC-Watauga-Smyth-Bland-Giles-Wythe-Pulaski- Montgomery-Grayson-Carroll-Floyd-Craig-Roanoke-Botetourt-Patrick- Franklin-Bedford-Amherst- Including the cities of West Jefferson, Sparta, Boone, Marion, Bland, Pearisburg, Wytheville, Radford, Pulaski, Blacksburg, Independence, Whitetop, Troutdale, Volney, Galax, Floyd, New Castle, Roanoke, Salem, Fincastle, Stuart, Rocky Mount, and Amherst 1254 PM EST Wed Jan 5 2022 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THURSDAY TO 7 AM EST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches. * WHERE...Portions of central, south central, southwest and west central Virginia and northwest North Carolina. * WHEN...From 1 PM Thursday to 7 AM EST Friday. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Heck yeah! That's what im talking about! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LiQuiDBuD Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Reel it in, baby. Keep reeling!Sent from my Pixel 6 Pro using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Also looking ahead the ensembles from the EURO and the GFS look great for repeated cold fronts pushing through. Looks like an active pattern is setting up for the month of January. Looks like currently the AO and the NAO both go negative mid month and the PNA finally relaxes and possibly goes positive. Lots of good things to look at for this month. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 11 minutes ago, Met1985 said: Also looking ahead the ensembles from the EURO and the GFS look great for repeated cold fronts pushing through. Looks like an active pattern is setting up for the month of January. Looks like currently the AO and the NAO both go negative mid month and the PNA finally relaxes and possibly goes positive. Lots of good things to look at for this month. Hopefully the operational models will follow suit soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 18 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Hopefully the operational models will follow suit soon. They should. They have been jumping around a lot but a lot of positive signs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Another solid run by the GFS for the mountains. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherHawk Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 44 minutes ago, Met1985 said: Another solid run by the GFS for the mountains. Nice! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 To me, these were always the more magical snow events that came with living in the mountains. Not necessarily northwest flow, but a system the rest of the SE couldn’t cash in on. Enjoy it fellas! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherHawk Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 Crazy winds imby! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 40 minutes ago, WeatherHawk said: Crazy winds imby! It's coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 HRRR is mostly rain except above 3k. Look at those totals in WV! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 Not exactly the best setup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 Yeah the low is not as far south on the NAM but I personally don't trust the NAM especially after this past storm and the jumping around of this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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