WxKnurd Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 5 minutes ago, SnowNiner said: Visiting up in Jackson County for this storm, 5200 feet near waterrock knob. Not familiar with the mountain patterns up here. Worried a bit on the speed of the system, as it's out of here early tomorrow morning. With the need to drop the Temps, cool the ground, no real nw flow event to speak of, I don't see how my back yard gets much higher than 4-5 inches. Don't see very high amounts up here other than the border peaks but could be wrong I guess. You are in a great spot. 6”+ for sure like Franklin said. I used to live at the base of the mountain, you should see some flow snow on the backside as well as the system exits. I’m guessing you are staying somewhere off Greenspire? 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 First potential thundersnow in Alabama. Could be thundersleet. Tuscaloosa County right near the transition line. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 26 minutes ago, Disc said: While I'm sure that's a bit overdone, it's obvious that this is a very dynamic system capable of some serious snowfall rates. My real concern today has been the trend with a later changeover from rain to snow. Some guidance is now showing we won't flip until 7-8am, with the precip moving out a few hours later. That's gonna leave a lot of folks disappointed. The change from rain to snow is never favorable around here as I'm sure you already know, but the thing going for us here is this being such a dynamic system and the lift is crazy. Here is a frame from the 00z NAM (10z/5am).. ..this frontogenesis band along the Blue Ridge means business. Although the model may indicate rain/mix at this timeframe and the surface is mid 30s, it's likely gonna be snow if you're under that. With lift and rates like that it will obviously cool the surface quickly. The change over to snow will be once this passes over. Older runs had this coming through sooner and we switch to snow sooner, thus better totals. Something to watch, but regardless we're still good for at least a few inches of paste. If we didn't have a surface low rapidly developing to the south, you wouldn't get the heavy rates, and in turn this would've likely been a cold rain for most. We're truly getting lucky here to be getting any snow. Welp that deflated the tire LOL. Both know at this point sooner we can flip the better chance we have of higher totals. Sometimes I’ve been happily surprised, other times I’ve woken up to see 37 and rain so time will tell. Appreciate the thorough analysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Geeze.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Just now, wncsnow said: Geeze.. Was just going to say another solid run from the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 GFS still bringing the goods Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Anyone right at that transition line is going to get smoked. Probably literally goes from pouring rain to possibly thundersnow in a minute. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MountainOctopus Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Not feeling great about it for Transylvania, but interesting system, and excited to see how this plays out for everyone. 'Bout time there was something! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 It's nowcast fellas! Say your peace with the models, set your alarms, and get some rest before the fireworks start! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LiQuiDBuD Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Alarm set, see y'all at 5:30. Woot woot!Sent from my Pixel 6 Pro using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buncombe Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 I might be the only one still up! Raining hard here in North Asheville. Some concern about the lack of cold air filtering into the mountains so far, i.e. the cold chasing moisture concern. GSP forecast was originally for high elevation changeover in late evening hours. Cataloochee ski area is still at 37 degrees at 2:15AM, Mount Mitchell at 36. Asheville 47. I'm concerned the delayed temperature drop could effect totals. We will see though! Will be nice to see something regardless. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckethead Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 I might be the only one still up! Raining hard here in North Asheville. Some concern about the lack of cold air filtering into the mountains so far, i.e. the cold chasing moisture concern. GSP forecast was originally for high elevation changeover in late evening hours. Cataloochee ski area is still at 37 degrees at 2:15AM, Mount Mitchell at 36. Asheville 47. I'm concerned the delayed temperature drop could effect totals. We will see though! Will be nice to see something regardless.I'm up too. Currently sitting at 33.6° with moderate to heavy rain and waiting for the switch over to snow at 4400' in Wolf. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckethead Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Light snow now and 32.6. The wind is really cranking now, out of the N at 36 gusting to 51.Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ja643y Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Stuck at 43 up here on the Mitchell/McDowell line. Worried the cold air isn't going to come fast enough and totals are going to be slashed from the models. Changeover was supposed to be around 4, but I don't think we see it until 5 or later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckethead Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Game on! Currently 30.8 with moderate snow and windy...sticking to elevated surfaces so far...the ground is already slushing over so it won't be long before its sticking there too. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherHawk Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 3 minutes ago, Buckethead said: Game on! Currently 30.8 with moderate snow and windy...sticking to elevated surfaces so far. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Nice! Still rain just a bit North of Meat Camp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sw NC weather Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Just now starting to mix in a few flakes in north of franklin. Just heard a rumble of thunder too. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxKnurd Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Wind and rain woke me up at 1:30, it was 42. Alarm just woke me up again and it’s 34 with wind whipped snow, maybe some sleet mixed in. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherHawk Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 3 minutes ago, Sw NC weather said: Just now starting to mix in a few flakes in north of franklin. Just heard a rumble of thunder too. Yeah, expecting some TS with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckethead Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 It's pouring snow! Sticking to the ground now, already picked up half an inch or so.Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherHawk Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 6 minutes ago, Buckethead said: It's pouring snow! Sticking to the ground now, already picked up half an inch or so. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Alright! Nice truck! Is there an obs. thread for this storm yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Sleet pretty much already covering my deck here in Alexander. A little snow mixing as well. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 53.6 with all rain Winds gusting and a little lightning! . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherHawk Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Backside winds gonna be strong later for higher elevations??? …imagining super clear skies tonight for some star gazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Temperature finally falling off a cliff here. Down from 41.7 to 36.8 since 4AM. Just a matter of time now. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherHawk Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Just started ripping fat flakes here…winds moderate 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 5 minutes ago, WeatherHawk said: Just started ripping fat flakes here…winds moderate Right on time per our good friend the HRRR. Still waiting a bit south of you but webcam shows a changeover in Banner Elk. Can't tell about Boone for sure. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherHawk Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 7 minutes ago, Tyler Penland said: Temperature finally falling off a cliff here. Down from 41.7 to 36.8 since 4AM. Just a matter of time now. Same here….Ts crashing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxKnurd Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 34.5 when I woke up at 4, 30.9 now. Temps continue to crash. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ja643y Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Just went from 41 to 35 in about 15 minutes. Hopefully changeover soon. Wind is ripping up here. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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