2021-2022 Fall/Winter Mountains Thread

[forkyfork]

Just now, Met1985 said:

This must be a big deal for you to stop by and pay us a visit lol.

it's been so boring here and this is a cool storm

[Met1985]

Just now, forkyfork said:

it's been so boring here and this is a cool storm

No kidding! Yeah this month has been atrocious. What is neat about this storm is the rapid intensification of this storm as it pulls through and away. Kind of like something you would see in the NE...

[forkyfork]

1 minute ago, Met1985 said:

No kidding! Yeah this month has been atrocious. What is neat about this storm is the rapid intensification of this storm as it pulls through and away. Kind of like something you would see in the NE...

this vort max is super impressive especially for your latitude. the atmosphere is going to unload on the north side of it

 

[Met1985]

14 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

this vort max is super impressive especially for your latitude. the atmosphere is going to unload on the north side of it

 

I could not agree more. I think the location of the mountains and with elevation someone is going to get a foot plus from this around here. This setup is complex for our region.  This isn't the your typical gulf slider.

[NavarreDon]

From a purely weather vs snow perspective. I find the verbiage in this portion of the GSP disco so cool! Tons going on in the atmosphere in the next 18 hours.

Minor adjustments will be made to the Winter Storm Warnings and
Advisories with the high elevation warning expanded down into
Macon and the Advisories expanded across the northern NC foothills.
Uncertainty over accumulations remains very high given the present
very warm profiles, the warm ground, and the speed of the system
overnight through Monday morning. However, the forcing is tremendous
tonight as upper jetlet divergence ahead of the approaching wave
sharpens up quickly this evening. A mid-level deformation zone will
cross the region mainly from 08Z to 12Z and bring locally very heavy
snow rates, at least in the places cold enough for snow. Saturated
geopotential vorticity fields also indicate some thundersnow
could be possible in the heaviest rates late tonight. Amounts
have been boosted to 10 to 12 inches in the highest peaks of the
Smokies. The snow will end as NW upslope snowfall in the TN border
counties Monday, tapering off in the afternoon. Black ice will be
a concern beyond the Warning/Advisory period.


.

[Met1985]

1 minute ago, NavarreDon said:

From a purely weather vs snow perspective. I find the verbiage in this portion of the GSP disco so cool! Tons going on in the atmosphere in the next 18 hours.

Minor adjustments will be made to the Winter Storm Warnings and
Advisories with the high elevation warning expanded down into
Macon and the Advisories expanded across the northern NC foothills.
Uncertainty over accumulations remains very high given the present
very warm profiles, the warm ground, and the speed of the system
overnight through Monday morning. However, the forcing is tremendous
tonight as upper jetlet divergence ahead of the approaching wave
sharpens up quickly this evening. A mid-level deformation zone will
cross the region mainly from 08Z to 12Z and bring locally very heavy
snow rates, at least in the places cold enough for snow. Saturated
geopotential vorticity fields also indicate some thundersnow
could be possible in the heaviest rates late tonight. Amounts
have been boosted to 10 to 12 inches in the highest peaks of the
Smokies. The snow will end as NW upslope snowfall in the TN border
counties Monday, tapering off in the afternoon. Black ice will be
a concern beyond the Warning/Advisory period.


.

This is exactly why the mountains have been seeing the models such as the GFS latch onto high totals.  As Forky mentioned this vort is going to be wound up and we will be north of the vort but then we are going to see backside snow along the border to enhance totals also. This is a complex wound up storm for sure. 

[NavarreDon]

This is exactly why the mountains have been seeing the models such as the GFS latch onto high totals.  As Forky mentioned this vort is going to be wound up and we will be north of the vort but then we are going to see backside snow along the border to enhance totals also. This is a complex wound up storm for sure. 

Agreed & whoever gets lucky enough to be popped by the deform band is gonna be in for a treat. I still say don’t sleep on areas in the foothills. If things break right with the low track and strength…..surprise, surprise, surprise!!!


.

[Met1985]

1 minute ago, NavarreDon said:

Agreed & whoever gets lucky enough to be popped by the deform band is gonna be in for a treat. I still say don’t sleep on areas in the foothills. If things break right with the low track and strength…..surprise, surprise, surprise!!!


.

Yeah I agree this may surprise some people in the foothills if things fall just right.

[Met1985]

The 00z NAM be rolling in soon. Lets see what the last run says before go time.

[SnowDawg]

 

[BooneWX]

Another solid run! Even the foothills join the game a little bit more. HKY with a 10 degree drop tomorrow morning in 3 hrs.

[Met1985]

Yeah this run is much better than the 18z NAM. That is good news for snow lovers. The NAM has been absolutely pathetic though trying to hone in on this system. 

[Buddy1987]

Man oh man that deform band from like hour 7 until 14, specifically on 0z NAM 12k and then continuing on north/northwest is going to mean serious business from Smokies into western NC mountains and up into the SWVA empire and then onto central VA. The rates are just going to be silly. Every model has some form or semblance of this. 

[wncsnow]

Hi Res NAM is a beaut

[Met1985]

4 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

Another solid run! Even the foothills join the game a little bit more. HKY with a 12 degree drop tomorrow morning in 3 hrs.

Yeah the temperature crash in the morning is going to be no joke.

[Met1985]

Just now, wncsnow said:

Hi Res NAM is a beaut

Post

[Buddy1987]

[Buddy1987]

Absolute classic snow bomb with the low traversing right through central NC, at least for this neck of the woods. This same type of setup produced 2ft of snow up this way back in 2011.

[Met1985]

Just now, Buddy1987 said:

Absolute classic snow bomb with the low traversing right through central NC, at least for this neck of the woods. This same type of setup produced 2ft of snow up this way back in 2011.

Yeah when the low splits the state and we have cold air we usually get hammered. 

[BornAgain13]

Looks good so far for my area!!

[Buddy1987]

Just now, Met1985 said:

Yeah when the low splits the state and we have cold air we usually get hammered. 

The upslope SE flow with the negative tilt commencing is just going to pile up massive amounts of pwats right against the mountains. Storms like these is why we track. Only thing literally missing is a slower system 

[Buddy1987]

GOOD LORD! Where is @Disc 7.1” in 3 hours for Blacksburg, 5.7” out my way. 

[BornAgain13]

1 minute ago, Buddy1987 said:

GOOD LORD! Where is @Disc 7.1” in 3 hours for Blacksburg, 5.7” out my way. 

Only 4" my way lol

[buckeyefan1]

[buckeyefan1]

[Disc]

1 hour ago, Buddy1987 said:

GOOD LORD! Where is @Disc 7.1” in 3 hours for Blacksburg, 5.7” out my way. 

While I'm sure that's a bit overdone, it's obvious that this is a very dynamic system capable of some serious snowfall rates. My real concern today has been the trend with a later changeover from rain to snow. Some guidance is now showing we won't flip until 7-8am, with the precip moving out a few hours later. That's gonna leave a lot of folks disappointed. The change from rain to snow is never favorable around here as I'm sure you already know, but the thing going for us here is this being such a dynamic system and the lift is crazy. Here is a frame from the 00z NAM (10z/5am)..

..this frontogenesis band along the Blue Ridge means business. Although the model may indicate rain/mix at this timeframe and the surface is mid 30s, it's likely gonna be snow if you're under that. With lift and rates like that it will obviously cool the surface quickly. The change over to snow will be once this passes over. Older runs had this coming through sooner and we switch to snow sooner, thus better totals. Something to watch, but regardless we're still good for at least a few inches of paste.

If we didn't have a surface low rapidly developing to the south, you wouldn't get the heavy rates, and in turn this would've likely been a cold rain for most. We're truly getting lucky here to be getting any snow. 

[Met1985]

3 minutes ago, Disc said:

While I'm sure that's a bit overdone, it's obvious that this is a very dynamic system capable of some serious snowfall rates. My real concern today has been the trend with a later changeover from rain to snow. Some guidance is now showing we won't flip until 7-8am, with the precip moving out a few hours later. That's gonna leave a lot of folks disappointed. The change from rain to snow is never favorable around here as I'm sure you already, but the thing going for us here is this being such a dynamic system and the lift is crazy. Here is a frame from the 00z NAM (10z/5am)..

..this frontogenesis band along the Blue Ridge means business. Although the model may indicate rain/mix at this timeframe and the surface is mid 30s, it's likely gonna be snow if you're under that. With lift and rates like that it will obviously cool the surface quickly. The change over to snow will be once this passes over. Older runs had this coming through sooner and we switch to snow sooner, thus better totals. Something to watch, but regardless we're still good for at least a few inches of paste.

If we didn't have a surface low rapidly developing to the south, you wouldn't get the heavy rates, and in turn this would've likely been a cold rain for most. We're truly getting lucky here to be getting any snow. 

Thank you Disc and great analysis for folks up near you in Virginia. Best of luck ol sport.

[SnowNiner]

59 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

The upslope SE flow with the negative tilt commencing is just going to pile up massive amounts of pwats right against the mountains. Storms like these is why we track. Only thing literally missing is a slower system 

Visiting up in Jackson County for this storm, 5200 feet near waterrock knob. Not familiar with the mountain patterns up here. Worried a bit on the speed of the system, as it's out of here early tomorrow morning. With the need to drop the Temps, cool the ground, no real nw flow event to speak of, I don't see how my back yard gets much higher than 4-5 inches. Don't see very high amounts up here other than the border peaks but could be wrong I guess. 

[franklin NCwx]

Just now, SnowNiner said:

Visiting up in Jackson County for this storm, 5200 feet near waterrock knob. Not familiar with the mountain patterns up here. Worried a bit on the speed of the system, as it's out of here early tomorrow morning. With the need to drop the Temps, cool the ground, no real nw flow event to speak of, I don't see how my back yard gets much higher than 4-5 inches. Don't see very high amounts up here other than the border peaks but could be wrong I guess. 

You're I'm a good spot. Should see 6+

[Met1985]

2 minutes ago, SnowNiner said:

Visiting up in Jackson County for this storm, 5200 feet near waterrock knob. Not familiar with the mountain patterns up here. Worried a bit on the speed of the system, as it's out of here early tomorrow morning. With the need to drop the Temps, cool the ground, no real nw flow event to speak of, I don't see how my back yard gets much higher than 4-5 inches. Don't see very high amounts up here other than the border peaks but could be wrong I guess. 

You'll be fine.