donsutherland1 Posted October 5, 2021 Share Posted October 5, 2021 Morning thoughts… Today will be mostly cloudy and cooler. High temperatures will likely reach the middle and upper 60s in most of the region. Some locations could reach the lower 70s. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 66° Newark: 70° Philadelphia: 70° Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 68.6°; 15-Year: 69.9° Newark: 30-Year: 70.2°; 15-Year: 71.7° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 71.4°; 15-Year: 72.6° A generally warmer than normal regime will continue through much or all of the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted October 5, 2021 Share Posted October 5, 2021 The next 8 days are averaging 67degs.(62/74), or +4. GFS is dry again for the next 10. EURO wet again starting Saturday. All travelling 5 day periods have AN T's through the 20th., for all but the PacNW. Reached 77! here yesterday. Today: 67-71, cloudy, e. wind, drizzle? 61*(96%RH) here at 6am, overcast, street wet. 62* at 9am. 66* at Noon. 68* at 12:30pm, some breaks in the clouds. 69* at 1pm. 68* at 2pm. 66* at 4pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 5, 2021 Share Posted October 5, 2021 5 hours ago, mjr said: Backdoor cold fronts suck. They can happen at any time of the year. I believe that the geography of LI Sound helps funnel NE winds into NYC and propels some of these fronts through when one might expect them to remain to the east of us. Also, I feel that this makes it more difficult for them to return through NYC as a warm front. I have been frustrated at forecasts predicting sunny 80 degree temps only to spend the day in the 50s while central NJ gets up to 80. I have no evidence to back this up but it seems to me that these fronts frequently occur in situations that feature an upper level eastern ridge. Upper level eastern ridges can translate to surface highs over Eastern Canada which send down backdoor fronts. I am also pretty pessimistic about EWR reaching 70 Tuesday unless we experience unexpected afternoon breaks of sun. Thats right, I remember these can happen in the middle of summer too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 5, 2021 Share Posted October 5, 2021 14 hours ago, bluewave said: Today was one of the easterly flow days that I mentioned yesterday when the warm minimums drive the departure. The high at JFK was +4 and the low so far of 67° is +13°. So the low could fall a few more degrees before midnight and still be close to +10°. CLIMATE REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK, NY 433 PM EDT MON OCT 04 2021 ................................... ...THE KENNEDY NY CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR OCTOBER 4 2021... VALID TODAY AS OF 0400 PM LOCAL TIME. CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1991 TO 2020 CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1948 TO 2021 WEATHER ITEM OBSERVED TIME RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST VALUE (LST) VALUE VALUE FROM YEAR NORMAL ................................................................... TEMPERATURE (F) TODAY MAXIMUM 73 940 AM 84 1967 69 4 69 MINIMUM 67 214 AM 39 1996 54 13 47 AVERAGE 70 62 8 58 I am glad that this isn't a week long thing, looks like we're back to sunny and dry weather Wednesday thru Friday with temps approaching 80 again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 5, 2021 Share Posted October 5, 2021 This fall is featuring the strongest -PDO pattern in years. It results in a warmer than average +EPO/-PNA pattern with a pumped up SE Ridge. Main question for the winter is will we get enough blocking to tame this pattern a bit? Second winters after extreme blocking like last year usually had follow up blocking. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 5, 2021 Share Posted October 5, 2021 7 minutes ago, bluewave said: This fall is featuring the strongest -PDO pattern in years. It results in a warmer than average +EPO/-PNA pattern with a pumped up SE Ridge. Main question for the winter is will we get enough blocking to tame this pattern a bit? Second winters after extreme blocking like last year usually had follow up blocking. A strong -PDO for sure, it’s been at least 10 years since we’ve seen one. There aren’t too many good analogs for this upcoming winter….2nd year “Central Pacific”/central-based La Niña, -QBO, rapidly rising solar, strong -PDO, -PMM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 5, 2021 Share Posted October 5, 2021 8 minutes ago, bluewave said: This fall is featuring the strongest -PDO pattern in years. It results in a warmer than average +EPO/-PNA pattern with a pumped up SE Ridge. Main question for the winter is will we get enough blocking to tame this pattern a bit? Second winters after extreme blocking like last year usually had follow up blocking. We have also gone -PMM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted October 5, 2021 Share Posted October 5, 2021 23 minutes ago, bluewave said: This fall is featuring the strongest -PDO pattern in years. It results in a warmer than average +EPO/-PNA pattern with a pumped up SE Ridge. Main question for the winter is will we get enough blocking to tame this pattern a bit? Second winters after extreme blocking like last year usually had follow up blocking. There are not too many cases where the Oct pattern continued through the winter. I always tell people on the dumb basic meteorology scale if you can be mild from 10/1-11/15 its way better than being -5 for that same period if you want a cold and snowy winter. 2000 is one of the few cases in the last 25 years where the October pattern more or less continued all winter 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted October 5, 2021 Share Posted October 5, 2021 the bat signal went up. 2 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted October 5, 2021 Share Posted October 5, 2021 28 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: There are not too many cases where the Oct pattern continued through the winter. I always tell people on the dumb basic meteorology scale if you can be mild from 10/1-11/15 its way better than being -5 for that same period if you want a cold and snowy winter. 2000 is one of the few cases in the last 25 years where the October pattern more or less continued all winter 76-77 had straight cold from October through February, however February moderated and March was warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinRP37 Posted October 5, 2021 Share Posted October 5, 2021 The one thing too is we have been incredibly wet for a long period of time now. I wouldn’t be shocked if we flipped to a much drier pattern for winter. It certainly wouldn’t be the first time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
binbisso Posted October 5, 2021 Share Posted October 5, 2021 11 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said: The one thing too is we have been incredibly wet for a long period of time now. I wouldn’t be shocked if we flipped to a much drier pattern for winter. It certainly wouldn’t be the first time. That is probably true 30 plus years ago But in our new sub tropical climate as some posters here have pointed out Warmer and wetter seems more likely. We could have a dry month or even a dry year In certain patterns but that's probably more the exception than the rule going forward Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 5, 2021 Share Posted October 5, 2021 1 hour ago, bluewave said: This fall is featuring the strongest -PDO pattern in years. It results in a warmer than average +EPO/-PNA pattern with a pumped up SE Ridge. Main question for the winter is will we get enough blocking to tame this pattern a bit? Second winters after extreme blocking like last year usually had follow up blocking. The La Nina and PDO have finally bound together. I actually thought this year would be a neutral cold winter, so either way I wasn't expecting much snow since neutrals after La Nina tend to be among our least snowiest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 5, 2021 Share Posted October 5, 2021 1 hour ago, BxEngine said: the bat signal went up. it's that time of the year again and it's always like clockwork lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 5, 2021 Share Posted October 5, 2021 49 minutes ago, KEITH L.I said: 76-77 had straight cold from October through February, however February moderated and March was warm it was cold from the end of August 1976 to mid Feb...the overall pattern from Nov 1995-Nov 1996 was a trof in the east...that ended mid December 1996... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted October 5, 2021 Share Posted October 5, 2021 31 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: The La Nina and PDO have finally bound together. I actually thought this year would be a neutral cold winter, so either way I wasn't expecting much snow since neutrals after La Nina tend to be among our least snowiest. Again and I say this before every La Nina winter,if there is blocking in the Atlantic it could be a decent winter. If there is no blocking expect a warm winter.Last year there was blocking, the pacific was horrible but we were above average snow.. La NIna winters are also front loaded so a cold December is usually the case Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 5, 2021 Share Posted October 5, 2021 1 hour ago, KEITH L.I said: Again and I say this before every La Nina winter,if there is blocking in the Atlantic it could be a decent winter. If there is no blocking expect a warm winter.Last year there was blocking, the pacific was horrible but we were above average snow.. La NIna winters are also front loaded so a cold December is usually the case Yup but even with that blocking we had a lot of mixing and changeovers here it was more of an inland winter, I would say it was a B winter, not in one of the higher categories. There have been La Nina winters in those higher categories (1995-96 and 2010-11 are prime examples) but those not only have exceptional blocking, they are also La Ninas that come after El Ninos and retain some of the aftereffects of the previous winter's El Nino, and give us the best of both worlds (cold and snow.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 5, 2021 Share Posted October 5, 2021 1 hour ago, uncle W said: it was cold from the end of August 1976 to mid Feb...the overall pattern from Nov 1995-Nov 1996 was a trof in the east...that ended mid December 1996... 1995-96 blasts any of the late 70s winters by a wide margin when it comes to snowfall (including 77-78) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 5, 2021 Share Posted October 5, 2021 3 hours ago, LibertyBell said: The La Nina and PDO have finally bound together. I actually thought this year would be a neutral cold winter, so either way I wasn't expecting much snow since neutrals after La Nina tend to be among our least snowiest. At least for our area, there really isn’t much correlation between ENSO and snowfall. Snowfall amounts come down to how much blocking we get. Above normal snowfall and above normal temperatures has been the most common winter combination in our area since 2002-2003. That was the year the record snowfall and -AO/-NAO blocking patterns become more frequent. Above normal snowfall and above normal temperatures 7 years 20-21 17-18 16-17 15-16 12-13 05-06 04-05 Above normal snowfall and below normal temperatures 6 years 14-15 13-14 10-11 09-10 03-04 02-03 Below normal snowfall and above normal temperatures 5 years 19-20 18-19 11-12 07-08 06-07 Near normal temperatures and near normal snowfall 1 year 08-09 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 5, 2021 Author Share Posted October 5, 2021 Ewr 68 so far for a high Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 5, 2021 Share Posted October 5, 2021 1 hour ago, bluewave said: At least for our area, there really isn’t much correlation between ENSO and snowfall. Snowfall amounts come down to how much blocking we get. Above normal snowfall and above normal temperatures has been the most common winter combination in our area since 2002-2003. That was the year the record snowfall and -AO/-NAO blocking patterns become more frequent. Above normal snowfall and above normal temperatures 7 years 20-21 17-18 16-17 15-16 12-13 05-06 04-05 Above normal snowfall and below normal temperatures 6 years 14-15 13-14 10-11 09-10 03-04 02-03 Below normal snowfall and above normal temperatures 5 years 19-20 18-19 11-12 07-08 06-07 Near normal temperatures and near normal snowfall 1 year 08-09 But something I find interesting is that it's pretty rare to have near normal snowfall. It's usually way above or way below..... even slightly above normal snowfall is rare (like the 30-39 inch range).....if it's going to be above normal snowfall it's usually 40 + inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 5, 2021 Share Posted October 5, 2021 1 hour ago, bluewave said: At least for our area, there really isn’t much correlation between ENSO and snowfall. Snowfall amounts come down to how much blocking we get. Above normal snowfall and above normal temperatures has been the most common winter combination in our area since 2002-2003. That was the year the record snowfall and -AO/-NAO blocking patterns become more frequent. Above normal snowfall and above normal temperatures 7 years 20-21 17-18 16-17 15-16 12-13 05-06 04-05 Above normal snowfall and below normal temperatures 6 years 14-15 13-14 10-11 09-10 03-04 02-03 Below normal snowfall and above normal temperatures 5 years 19-20 18-19 11-12 07-08 06-07 Near normal temperatures and near normal snowfall 1 year 08-09 I see no more below normal snowfall and below normal temp combos..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 5, 2021 Share Posted October 5, 2021 I think a record warm October is a lock. Looking at +15 to +20 minimum departures into mid-late October. Maybe this will continue all winter. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 5, 2021 Share Posted October 5, 2021 1 hour ago, LibertyBell said: I see no more below normal snowfall and below normal temp combos..... The Euro seasonal just came out today. It’s really hitting the Aleutians Ridge very hard. So if that is correct, then we will need blocking to have a shot at above normal snowfall. While we had a strong SE Ridge in 16-17 and 17-18, blocking intervals gave us above normal snowfall to go with the above normal temperatures. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 5, 2021 Share Posted October 5, 2021 20 minutes ago, bluewave said: The Euro seasonal just came out today. It’s really hitting the Aleutians Ridge very hard. So if that is correct, then we will need blocking to have a shot at above normal snowfall. While we had a strong SE Ridge in 16-17 and 17-18, blocking intervals gave us above normal snowfall to go with the above normal temperatures. It’s definitely not what winter weather lovers would like to see. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 5, 2021 Share Posted October 5, 2021 If it's going to be a torch winter give me '11-'12 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 5, 2021 Share Posted October 5, 2021 10 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: If it's going to be a torch winter give me '11-'12 Hell no 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
495weatherguy Posted October 5, 2021 Share Posted October 5, 2021 35 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: If it's going to be a torch winter give me '11-'12 Agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted October 5, 2021 Share Posted October 5, 2021 33 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: It’s definitely not what winter weather lovers would like to see. Looks like last year. Seasonals are not very accuarate.I mean it could turn out that way but predicting weather a month or 2 or 3 months in advace is basically a toss up. I remember saying this around this time last year when we were all on suicide watch because of the monthly's. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 5, 2021 Share Posted October 5, 2021 49 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Hell no I enjoyed that year once it was obvious what was going on. Low heating bills, hiking/biking it was actually kind of nice. 80 in March! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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