CIK62 Posted October 28, 2021 Share Posted October 28, 2021 The last 4 days of October are averaging 56degs.(52/60), or +2. Month to date is 63.0[+4.4]. October should end at 62.1[+4.2]. Reached 61 here yesterday. Today: 58-62, wind ne., P. Sunny. Another 1" on Fri/Sat. to go with the 3.69" earlier in the week. First 30's for city somewhere during Nov. 4-12? 51*(71%RH) here at 6am. 56* at 11am 58* at Noon. 59* at 1pm. Reached 61* at 4pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted October 28, 2021 Share Posted October 28, 2021 45 here this AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 28, 2021 Share Posted October 28, 2021 Like we have seen in recent years, October has been one of the warmest on record across our area. So 70° Septembers and 60° Octobers have become more common. Even places like POU came close to a 60° average through October 27th. Time Series Summary for Poughkeepsie Area, NY (ThreadEx) - Month of OctClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2021 59.0 4 2 2017 58.5 0 3 2007 58.0 0 4 1947 57.9 0 5 1971 57.4 0 6 1931 57.3 0 7 1949 56.2 0 8 1932 55.9 2 9 1963 55.8 0 - 1946 55.8 0 10 1989 55.3 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of OctClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2021 65.4 4 2 2017 63.8 0 3 2007 63.5 0 4 1971 63.1 0 5 1990 62.4 0 6 1984 62.2 0 7 1949 61.6 0 8 1963 61.2 0 9 1995 61.0 0 - 1947 61.0 0 10 2019 60.4 0 Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Month of OctClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2021 63.9 4 2 1971 63.5 0 3 2017 63.2 0 4 2007 63.0 0 5 1984 61.7 0 6 1995 61.6 0 7 1990 61.3 0 8 1949 61.1 0 9 1954 60.1 0 10 2013 60.0 0 Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Month of OctClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2021 62.1 4 2 2017 61.9 0 3 2007 61.1 0 4 1990 60.9 0 5 1971 59.7 0 6 1995 58.5 0 7 1963 58.3 0 8 2019 57.9 0 - 2013 57.9 0 - 2012 57.9 0 9 2016 57.5 0 - 2014 57.5 0 - 1984 57.5 0 10 2020 56.8 0 Time Series Summary for SUSSEX AIRPORT, NJ - Month of OctClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2021 59.4 4 2 2007 58.2 0 3 2017 57.5 0 4 2014 55.9 0 5 2019 54.7 0 6 2012 53.7 3 7 2020 53.1 0 8 2005 52.9 0 9 2013 52.8 0 10 2016 52.7 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted October 28, 2021 Share Posted October 28, 2021 ^Geez, that's really -PNA for the Winter https://ibb.co/DfnXmyD 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 28, 2021 Share Posted October 28, 2021 The low temperature at LaGuardia Airport was 50 degrees. So far, the temperature has yet to drop into the 40s. The previous latest first reading in the 40s occurred on October 25, 1946. The normal date is October 6, which is 3 days later than during the prior 1981-2010 base period. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted October 28, 2021 Share Posted October 28, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 28, 2021 Share Posted October 28, 2021 32 minutes ago, LoboLeader1 said: looks like it may hold off until later tomorrow evening at least based on latest model runs (especially north and east of NYC) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted October 28, 2021 Share Posted October 28, 2021 Never got out of the 50s here today, very little sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 28, 2021 Share Posted October 28, 2021 The brief respite between storms is now ending. Clouds will increase tomorrow as another storm approaches the region. That storm will bring a general 1.00"-2.00" rainfall with locally higher amounts late tomorrow into Saturday. Overall, clouds will increase tomorrow. Temperatures will remain near seasonable levels. No sharp cold shots will occur through the remainder of October. It will likely turn cooler, but not exceptionally cold, during the start of November. The duration of the cooler weather remains uncertain. The following locations are on course to challenge or establish new record high lowest monthly temperatures for October (through October 28 4 pm): Bridgeport: 43° (record: 41°, 2004) Islip: 42° (record: 40°, 1971 and 2017) New York City-JFK: 47° (record: 46°, 1971) New York City-LGA: 50° (record: 47°, 1971) New York City-NYC: 47° (record: 45°, 1946 and 1971) Newark: 45° (record: 45°, 1971) Philadelphia: 46° (record: 45°, 1882, 1927 and 1931) Poughkeepsie: 36° (record: 35°, 1971, 1995 and 1996) White Plains: 41° (record: 40°, 1971) The MJO had completed its passage through Phase 5 at a very high amplitude during the first half of October. During the 1991-2020 period, there were 6 cases with passage through Phase 5 with at least three days at an amplitude of 1.500 or above: 1998, 2000, 2004, 2010, 2017, and 2020. There was a strong signal for the second half of October to wind up warmer than normal (83%) cases in the New York City area. However, that signal broke down to a 50-50 split for the first 10 days of November. The latest guidance suggests that a period of cooler than normal weather could develop during the first or second week of November. The big issue concerns the duration of the cooler weather. Recently, Atlantic teleconnections went through an unusual combination for the second half of October where the AO was +0.750 or above and the NAO was -0.750 or below for a record four consecutive days during the second half of October. There were three clusters of cases with one or more such days during the second half of October (1950-2020), two of which favored warmth in the East in November. Cluster 1 (1961, 1973, 1975): Warm East, Cool West Cluster 2 (1970, 2006): Warm Northeast/Cool Southeast, Warm West Cluster 3 (2008): Cool East, Warm West The October 1-25 North American temperature anomalies most closely resemble those for the Cluster 1 October composite anomalies. As a result, even as La Niña climatology would favor a cool November, more than La Niña is involved. The impact of the rare teleconnections combination suggests the possibility that the month could wind up on the warm side of normal. The evolution of the PNA could be crucial. For both Cluster 1 and 2, the PNA averaged negative during November. For Cluster 3, the PNA averaged above +1.000. For now, this is more theoretical in nature, but it is a plausible scenario. Fall 2021 will likely be wetter to much wetter than normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region. Since 1869, there have been 9 August cases where New York City picked up 20.00" or more rainfall during the summer. Two thirds of those cases (and 4/5 of those with summer mean temperatures of 73.0° or above) had 17.00" or more fall precipitation in New York City. 2011 is probably the closest match in terms of precipitation and a nearly identical summer mean temperature. Mean fall precipitation for those 9 cases was 14.86". The median was 17.35". The 1991-2020 normal value is 12.27". Fall rainfall through October 28 4 pm is 14.27". Following very wet July-September periods, winter (December-February) precipitation has typically been near or below normal. The most recent exception was winter 2018-19. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around October 20. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.05°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.52°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through at least mid-winter. The SOI was +2.64 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.388 today. On October 26 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 0.810 (RMM). The October 25-adjusted amplitude was 0.710 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 62.0° (4.1° above normal). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted October 29, 2021 Share Posted October 29, 2021 The last 3 days of October are averaging 57degs.(53/61), or +4. Month to date is 62.6[+4.1]. October should end near 62.0[+4.1]. Reached 61 here yesterday. Today: 57-61, High T comes late, wind ene. and gusty, rain after dark, 0.5"-1.5" through Sunday. GFS LR got warmer and the EURO is cooler---But Not COOL. In fact, both models < ....>! 51*(77%RH) here at 6am. 54* at 9am. 55* at 10am. 59* at Noon. 61* at 1pm. 57*at 7pm. 55* at 10pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 29, 2021 Share Posted October 29, 2021 Morning thoughts… This morning the temperature fell to 49° at LaGuardia Airport. That was the first time this season that the temperature fell below 50° there and the latest first sub-50° temperature on record. The previous record was October 25, 1946. Clouds will increase and rain will arrive later in the day. A general 1”-2” rainfall with locally higher amounts is likely. High temperatures will likely reach the upper 50s and lower 60s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 56° Newark: 61° Philadelphia: 61° Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 59.9°; 15-Year: 60.1° Newark: 30-Year: 61.2°; 15-Year: 61.8° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 62.3°; 15-Year: 62.4° Rain will end tomorrow but clouds will linger. Drier weather should continue into next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 29, 2021 Share Posted October 29, 2021 In our new era of extreme precipitation, it has become more common for our stations to exceed 60 inches in a year. Data for January 1, 2021 through October 29, 2021Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Total Precipitation NJ HARRISON COOP 60.55 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 56.20 NJ RINGWOOD 3.0 SSE CoCoRaHS 56.01 NJ NORTH ARLINGTON 0.7 WNW CoCoRaHS 55.83 NJ WEST CALDWELL TWP 1.3 NE CoCoRaHS 55.42 Data for January 1, 2019 through December 31, 2019Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Total Precipitation NJ HARRISON COOP 67.73 CT OAKDALE 2.6 WNW CoCoRaHS 66.59 CT NEW LONDON 1.0 NNW CoCoRaHS 66.54 CT EAST LYME 0.5 SW CoCoRaHS 66.07 NJ CEDAR GROVE TWP 0.4 W CoCoRaHS 65.63 NJ NEW PROVIDENCE 0.8 ESE CoCoRaHS 65.56 NJ LITTLE FALLS TWP 0.5 WNW CoCoRaHS 65.28 CT MYSTIC 1.6 W CoCoRaHS 65.01 CT PAWCATUCK 1.8 SSE CoCoRaHS 64.74 CT NORWALK 2.9 NNW CoCoRaHS 64.08 CT NEW CANAAN 1.9 ENE CoCoRaHS 63.78 CT NORWICH 2.5 NNE CoCoRaHS 63.46 CT MADISON CENTER 4.1 N CoCoRaHS 63.21 CT UNCASVILLE-OXOBOXO VALLEY 1.6 ENE CoCoRaHS 63.15 NJ WESTFIELD 0.6 NE CoCoRaHS 63.03 CT STONINGTON 1.4 NNW CoCoRaHS 63.02 NJ WEST MILFORD TWP 2.5 SSE CoCoRaHS 62.99 NJ GLEN ROCK 0.7 SSE CoCoRaHS 62.81 NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 62.76 NJ OAKLAND 0.9 SSE CoCoRaHS 62.75 NJ MONTCLAIR 0.7 N CoCoRaHS 62.45 CT CENTRAL WATERFORD 2.7 SSW CoCoRaHS 62.41 NJ HAWTHORNE 1.0 SSE CoCoRaHS 62.21 NY ORIENT POINT STATE PARK COOP 62.18 NJ RINGWOOD 3.0 SSE CoCoRaHS 61.81 CT OLD LYME 3.4 ESE CoCoRaHS 61.63 CT SHELTON 1.3 W CoCoRaHS 61.33 CT STONINGTON 0.5 NNE CoCoRaHS 61.24 CT NIANTIC 1.1 SW CoCoRaHS 61.19 CT WESTPORT 2.5 ENE CoCoRaHS 61.05 CT ESSEX VILLAGE 0.9 S CoCoRaHS 60.94 NJ CHARLOTTEBURG RESERVOIR COOP 60.75 CT DARIEN 2.8 NW CoCoRaHS 60.55 CT MONROE 0.8 W CoCoRaHS 60.42 NY FISHERS ISLAND 0.5 NE CoCoRaHS 60.33 NJ LINDEN 2.2 NW CoCoRaHS 60.27 CT PROSPECT 1.9 ENE CoCoRaHS 60.22 NY PLAINEDGE 0.4 WSW CoCoRaHS 60.06 Data for January 1, 2018 through December 31, 2018Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Total Precipitation NJ CEDAR GROVE TWP 0.4 W CoCoRaHS 80.78 NJ LITTLE FALLS TWP 0.5 WNW CoCoRaHS 75.84 CT MONROE 0.8 W CoCoRaHS 74.45 NJ WEST MILFORD TWP 2.5 SSE CoCoRaHS 74.13 CT MONROE 0.1 SE CoCoRaHS 74.05 CT MADISON CENTER 1.6 W CoCoRaHS 73.82 NJ WEST CALDWELL TWP 1.3 NE CoCoRaHS 73.62 NJ RINGWOOD 3.0 SSE CoCoRaHS 73.58 CT OAKDALE 2.6 WNW CoCoRaHS 73.44 CT UNCASVILLE-OXOBOXO VALLEY 1.6 ENE CoCoRaHS 73.05 NJ OAKLAND 0.9 SSE CoCoRaHS 71.98 CT RIDGEFIELD 1.9 SSE CoCoRaHS 71.57 NJ HAWTHORNE 0.4 S CoCoRaHS 70.94 NY UPTON COOP - NWSFO NEW YORK COOP 70.71 NY PEEKSKILL 0.4 N CoCoRaHS 70.59 NJ PALISADES PARK 0.2 WNW CoCoRaHS 70.17 Data for January 1, 2011 through December 31, 2011Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Total Precipitation NJ WEST MILFORD TWP 3.2 NE CoCoRaHS 90.65 NJ WEST MILFORD TWP 2.5 SSE CoCoRaHS 86.48 NY MONROE 1.7 SE CoCoRaHS 84.34 NY WARWICK 3.2 WNW CoCoRaHS 82.73 NY WEST POINT COOP 80.37 NJ RINGWOOD COOP 80.29 NJ OAKLAND 0.9 SSE CoCoRaHS 80.03 Data for January 1, 2010 through December 31, 2010Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Total Precipitation CT OAKDALE 2.6 WNW CoCoRaHS 62.78 CT NORWICH PUBLIC UTILITY PLANT COOP 60.15 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted October 29, 2021 Share Posted October 29, 2021 Currently 47 here. WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EDT SATURDAY... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted October 29, 2021 Share Posted October 29, 2021 Today actually feels like fall. 55, windy, leaves flying all over... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 29, 2021 Share Posted October 29, 2021 A storm will bring a general 1"-2" of rain with locally higher amounts into tomorrow morning. The remainder of tomorrow will be mostly cloudy with possible additional showers. It will be somewhat milder than today. The remainder of October will see near normal to somewhat above normal readings. It will likely turn cooler, but not exceptionally cold, during the start of November. The duration of the cooler weather remains uncertain. Warming during the second week of November is possible. The following locations are on course to challenge or establish new record high lowest monthly temperatures for October (through October 29 4 pm): Bridgeport: 43° (record: 41°, 2004) Islip: 42° (record: 40°, 1971 and 2017) Mount Pocono, PA: 35° (record: 34°, 1920) New York City-JFK: 47° (record: 46°, 1971) New York City-LGA: 49° (record: 47°, 1971) New York City-NYC: 47° (record: 45°, 1946 and 1971) Newark: 45° (record: 45°, 1971) Philadelphia: 46° (record: 45°, 1882, 1927 and 1931) The MJO had completed its passage through Phase 5 at a very high amplitude during the first half of October. During the 1991-2020 period, there were 6 cases with passage through Phase 5 with at least three days at an amplitude of 1.500 or above: 1998, 2000, 2004, 2010, 2017, and 2020. There was a strong signal for the second half of October to wind up warmer than normal (83%) cases in the New York City area. However, that signal broke down to a 50-50 split for the first 10 days of November. The latest guidance suggests that a period of cooler than normal weather could develop during the first week of November. The big issue concerns the duration of the cooler weather. Recently, Atlantic teleconnections went through an unusual combination for the second half of October where the AO was +0.750 or above and the NAO was -0.750 or below for a record four consecutive days during the second half of October. There were three clusters of cases with one or more such days during the second half of October (1950-2020), two of which favored warmth in the East in November. Cluster 1 (1961, 1973, 1975): Warm East, Cool West Cluster 2 (1970, 2006): Warm Northeast/Cool Southeast, Warm West Cluster 3 (2008): Cool East, Warm West The October 1-25 North American temperature anomalies most closely resemble those for the Cluster 1 October composite anomalies. The latest CFSv2 monthly forecast favors the Cluster 2 scenario. As a result, even as La Niña climatology would favor a cool November, more than La Niña is involved. The impact of the rare teleconnections combination suggests the possibility that the month could wind up on the warm side of normal. The evolution of the PNA could be crucial. For both Cluster 1 and 2, the PNA averaged negative during November. For Cluster 3, the PNA averaged above +1.000. For now, this is more theoretical in nature, but it is a plausible scenario. Fall 2021 will likely be wetter to much wetter than normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region. Since 1869, there have been 9 August cases where New York City picked up 20.00" or more rainfall during the summer. Two thirds of those cases (and 4/5 of those with summer mean temperatures of 73.0° or above) had 17.00" or more fall precipitation in New York City. 2011 is probably the closest match in terms of precipitation and a nearly identical summer mean temperature. Mean fall precipitation for those 9 cases was 14.86". The median was 17.35". The 1991-2020 normal value is 12.27". Fall rainfall through October 29 4 pm is 14.27". Following very wet July-September periods, winter (December-February) precipitation has typically been near or below normal. The most recent exception was winter 2018-19. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around October 20. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.05°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.52°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through at least mid-winter. The SOI was -3.16 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.461 today. On October 27 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 0.847 (RMM). The October 26-adjusted amplitude was 0.809 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 62.0° (4.1° above normal). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 29, 2021 Share Posted October 29, 2021 Despite mainly cloudy skies, the chrysanthemums stood out at the New York Botanical Garden. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Claus Posted October 30, 2021 Share Posted October 30, 2021 2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: Despite mainly cloudy skies, the chrysanthemums stood out at the New York Botanical Garden. beautiful work as always don 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted October 30, 2021 Share Posted October 30, 2021 The last 2 days of October are averaging 61degs.(57/65), or +8. Month to date is 62.2[+3.9]. October should end at 62.1[+4.2]. Reached 61 again here yesterday. Today: 60-64, wind e., m. cloudy, some breaks, rain late. EURO Nov. 01-07 is 46(40/52), or -5. 62*(96%RH) here at 6am. 64* at Noon. 65* at 2pm. 61* at 6pm. 60* at 9pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 30, 2021 Share Posted October 30, 2021 Morning thoughts… Through 7 am EDT, New York City had picked up 0.91” of rain from the ongoing system. That brought the annual precipitation figure to 57.11”. As a result, 2021 now ranks as New York City’s 15th wettest year on record. By the time the last rain ends late tonight or early tomorrow, 2021 could be in the 14th position. Today will be cloudy with some additional showers and periods of rain. High temperatures will likely reach the lower and middle 60s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 62° Newark: 67° Philadelphia: 65° Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 59.6°; 15-Year: 59.7° Newark: 30-Year: 60.9°; 15-Year: 61.4° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 62.0°; 15-Year: 62.0° The sun should return tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 30, 2021 Share Posted October 30, 2021 Drier air moving into parts of the region, though not Suffolk County, resulted in several hours of afternoon sunshine and balmy readings. There are growing signs of autumn. But there is also a dissenting opinion from nature. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 30, 2021 Share Posted October 30, 2021 A warmer than normal Halloween will conclude a warm October in which many locations in the region will see their warmest monthly minimum temperatures on record for October. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BombsAway1288 Posted October 30, 2021 Share Posted October 30, 2021 7 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: A warmer than normal Halloween will conclude a warm October in which many locations in the region will see their warmest monthly minimum temperatures on record for October. Interesting that the mean temp for 10/31 went down in the most recent set of averages. Must have been some warm Halloween's in the 80's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 30, 2021 Share Posted October 30, 2021 Tomorrow will be partly sunny and unseasonably mild. However, cooler weather is on the way. It will turn cooler, but not exceptionally cold, during the first week of November. The duration of the cooler weather remains uncertain. There is an increasing probability that a warming trend could commence during the second week of November. The following locations are on course to challenge or establish new record high lowest monthly temperatures for October (through October 30 4 pm): Bridgeport: 43° (record: 41°, 2004) Islip: 42° (record: 40°, 1971 and 2017) Mount Pocono, PA: 35° (record: 34°, 1920) New York City-JFK: 47° (record: 46°, 1971) New York City-LGA: 49° (record: 47°, 1971) New York City-NYC: 47° (record: 45°, 1946 and 1971) Newark: 45° (record: 45°, 1971) Philadelphia: 46° (record: 45°, 1882, 1927 and 1931) The MJO had completed its passage through Phase 5 at a very high amplitude during the first half of October. During the 1991-2020 period, there were 6 cases with passage through Phase 5 with at least three days at an amplitude of 1.500 or above: 1998, 2000, 2004, 2010, 2017, and 2020. There was a strong signal for the second half of October to wind up warmer than normal (83%) cases in the New York City area. However, that signal broke down to a 50-50 split for the first 10 days of November. The latest guidance suggests that a period of cooler than normal weather could develop during the first week of November. The big issue concerns the duration of the cooler weather. Recently, Atlantic teleconnections went through an unusual combination for the second half of October where the AO was +0.750 or above and the NAO was -0.750 or below for a record four consecutive days during the second half of October. There were three clusters of cases with one or more such days during the second half of October (1950-2020), two of which favored warmth in the East in November. Cluster 1 (1961, 1973, 1975): Warm East, Cool West Cluster 2 (1970, 2006): Warm Northeast/Cool Southeast, Warm West Cluster 3 (2008): Cool East, Warm West The October 1-25 North American temperature anomalies most closely resemble those for the Cluster 1 October composite anomalies. The latest CFSv2 monthly forecast favors the Cluster 2 scenario. As a result, even as La Niña climatology would favor a cool November, more than La Niña is involved. The impact of the rare teleconnections combination suggests the possibility that the month could wind up on the warm side of normal. The evolution of the PNA could be crucial. For both Cluster 1 and 2, the PNA averaged negative during November. For Cluster 3, the PNA averaged above +1.000. For now, this is more theoretical in nature, but it is a plausible scenario. Fall 2021 will likely be wetter to much wetter than normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region. Since 1869, there have been 9 August cases where New York City picked up 20.00" or more rainfall during the summer. Two thirds of those cases (and 4/5 of those with summer mean temperatures of 73.0° or above) had 17.00" or more fall precipitation in New York City. 2011 is probably the closest match in terms of precipitation and a nearly identical summer mean temperature. Mean fall precipitation for those 9 cases was 14.86". The median was 17.35". The 1991-2020 normal value is 12.27". Fall rainfall through October 30 4 pm is 15.21". Following very wet July-September periods, winter (December-February) precipitation has typically been near or below normal. The most recent exception was winter 2018-19. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around October 20. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.05°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.52°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through at least mid-winter. The SOI was -3.87 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.468 today. On October 28 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 0.878 (RMM). The October 27-adjusted amplitude was 0.847 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 62.0° (4.1° above normal). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 30, 2021 Share Posted October 30, 2021 2 hours ago, BombsAway1288 said: Interesting that the mean temp for 10/31 went down in the most recent set of averages. Must have been some warm Halloween's in the 80's. 2011, 2012 and 2020 were cold. 2020 had the coldest mean temperature (39.0F) since 1925 and the 2nd coldest on record. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BombsAway1288 Posted October 30, 2021 Share Posted October 30, 2021 10 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: 2011, 2012 and 2020 were cold. 2020 had the coldest mean temperature (39.0F) since 1925 and the 2nd coldest on record. Thanks. Of course the temp difference could of been a result of some colder years and not necessarily a warm 1980's. 2011 and 2012 were the super cold years after the October snowstorm and Sandy respectively, I think 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted October 31, 2021 Share Posted October 31, 2021 The last day of October is averaging 60degs.(55/65), or +7. Nov. 01-07 50(45/54), or -1. Month to date is 62.1[+4.0]. October will end at 62.0[+4.1]. Reached 65 here yesterday. Today: 62-66, wind ese., p. cloudy. 57*(98%RH) here at 6am, street wet. 56* at 8am, clearing up. Was a Bum Steer---rain and 57* at 9am. 59* at Noon. 62* at 2pm. 65* at 3pm. Reached 66* at 4pm. 60* at 8pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 31, 2021 Share Posted October 31, 2021 One of the warmest Octobers and falls so far from the mid-Atlantic to New England. October Fall so far 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted October 31, 2021 Share Posted October 31, 2021 Picked up 0.46" of rain so far today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 31, 2021 Share Posted October 31, 2021 41 minutes ago, bluewave said: One of the warmest Octobers and falls so far from the mid-Atlantic to New England. October Fall so far Likely in large part thanks to the very persistent +EPO since the beginning of September, it’s been relentless. If November also averages a +EPO, it would be a very bad sign. Griteater’s new twitter thread explains in detail: 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 31, 2021 Share Posted October 31, 2021 14 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Likely in large part thanks to the very persistent +EPO since the beginning of September, it’s been relentless. If November also averages a +EPO, it would be a very bad sign. Griteater’s new twitter thread explains in detail: The September and October composite looks much different than 2011 and 1999. Notice how much more of a south based -NAO -AO pattern we had this year. The Northeast Pacific low was displaced south from Alaska closer to the PAC NW with the recent record storms. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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