October 2021

[LoboLeader1]

 

[Rtd208]

Overnight low of 41 here.

Current temp 42

[LoboLeader1]

Currently 41 here

[bluewave]

Monday looks like our last day of potential record warmth in a while. Newark may make another run 80° with a record high of 79°.The first two months of fall have followed the delayed fall theme of recent years. We are the warmest on record through the 23rd at several locations.

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Mean Avg Temperature Sep 1 to Oct 23	Missing Count
1	2021-10-23	69.7	0
2	2017-10-23	68.6	0
-	2007-10-23	68.6	0
3	1961-10-23	68.4	0
4	2005-10-23	68.1	0
5	1990-10-23	67.7	0
6	1971-10-23	67.6	0
7	1959-10-23	67.4	0
8	2016-10-23	67.3	0
9	1968-10-23	67.2	0
10	2011-10-23	67.0	0

 

Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Mean Avg Temperature Sep 1 to Oct 23	Missing Count
1	2021-10-23	68.1	0
-	2017-10-23	68.1	0
2	1971-10-23	68.0	0
3	2007-10-23	67.6	0
4	1961-10-23	67.5	0
5	2005-10-23	67.2	0
-	1959-10-23	67.2	0
6	2016-10-23	66.8	0
-	2015-10-23	66.8	0
7	1983-10-23	66.7	0
8	2018-10-23	66.4	0
9	2011-10-23	66.2	0
10	1995-10-23	66.1	0
-	1990-10-23	66.1	0

 

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Mean Avg Temperature Sep 1 to Oct 23	Missing Count
1	2021-10-23	66.7	0
2	2017-10-23	66.5	0
3	2005-10-23	65.9	0
4	2007-10-23	65.7	0
5	1990-10-23	65.5	0
6	2018-10-23	65.2	0
-	2011-10-23	65.2	0
7	2016-10-23	64.9	0
-	1980-10-23	64.9	0
8	2015-10-23	64.4	0
9	1971-10-23	64.2	0
10	2014-10-23	63.6	0
-	1998-10-23	63.6	0
-	1983-10-23	63.6	0

[bluewave]

14 minutes ago, LoboLeader1 said:

Hard to believe that the SST's are above normal this time of year.

Yeah, those record SSTs are rocket fuel for storms. 
 

https://mco.umaine.edu/gom_sst/

 

[MJO812]

11 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, those record SSTs are rocket fuel for storms. 
 

https://mco.umaine.edu/gom_sst/

 

Will bold well for next month and December if the pattern gets better.

[snowman19]

8 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, those record SSTs are rocket fuel for storms. 
 

https://mco.umaine.edu/gom_sst/

 

Those super warm SSTs are positively feeding back into the SE ridge/WAR. Given the La Niña/-PDO and those SSTs off the east coast, I think the SE ridge is going to be a big player this winter 

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts…

After the coolest morning so far this season in many parts of the region, it  will mostly partly cloudy with near seasonable temperatures. High temperatures will likely reach the upper 50s and lower 60s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 59°

Newark: 63°

Philadelphia: 62°

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 61.6°; 15-Year: 62.0°

Newark: 30-Year: 63.0°; 15-Year: 63.8°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 64.2°; 15-Year: 64.5°

Tomorrow will be much warmer ahead of a significant rainfall.

Out West, a bomb cyclone and atmospheric river will result in record rainfall at Sacramento and parts of northern California. Select daily rainfall records:

Downtown Sacramento:

October 24 record: 1.21”, 2010

October daily record: 3.63”, October 13, 1962 

All-time daily record: 5.28”, April 20, 1880

Sacramento:

October 24 record: 1.08”, 2010

October daily record: 3.77”, October 13, 1962 

All-time daily record: 3.77”, October 13, 1962

[donsutherland1]

8 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Have both gotten to 35 already but not 32 yet?

I see Caribou still hasn't hit 32!

 

Caribou’s lowest temperature so far this fall is 33, which occurred on October 5.

[thunderbolt]

24 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Those super warm SSTs are positively feeding back into the SE ridge/WAR. Given the La Niña/-PDO and those SSTs off the east coast, I think the SE ridge is going to be a big player this winter 

So another words put a fork in winter already

[MJO812]

30 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Those super warm SSTs are positively feeding back into the SE ridge/WAR. Given the La Niña/-PDO and those SSTs off the east coast, I think the SE ridge is going to be a big player this winter 

Classic snowman post

I guess you haven't learned from the last 2 winters with long range predictions.

[KEITH L.I]

42 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Those super warm SSTs are positively feeding back into the SE ridge/WAR. Given the La Niña/-PDO and those SSTs off the east coast, I think the SE ridge is going to be a big player this winter 

I'm shocked you would say that lol

[SnoSki14]

46 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Those super warm SSTs are positively feeding back into the SE ridge/WAR. Given the La Niña/-PDO and those SSTs off the east coast, I think the SE ridge is going to be a big player this winter 

You just need a short blocking interval nowadays to get a 20-40" blizzard.

[LibertyBell]

45 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Caribou’s lowest temperature so far this fall is 33, which occurred on October 5.

and still have not reached freezing in any part of our area, not to mention Monticello, Mount Pocono, Westhampton, Toms River, Marthas Vineyard or Scranton!

 

[LibertyBell]

23 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

You just need a short blocking interval nowadays to get a 20-40" blizzard.

thats correct, and that can occur in any pattern, we have become a one hit wonder type of of winter city anyway

see 2005-06, 2015-16, etc.

 

[LibertyBell]

28 minutes ago, KEITH L.I said:

I'm shocked you would say that lol

it could also be a big player to get a mega block buster storm up here that would be way offshore without the ridge

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, those record SSTs are rocket fuel for storms. 
 

https://mco.umaine.edu/gom_sst/

 

we could get a mega block buster snowstorm in that pattern and the se ridge might help by keeping the storm coming up the coast rather than going offshore

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Monday looks like our last day of potential record warmth in a while. Newark may make another run 80° with a record high of 79°.The first two months of fall have followed the delayed fall theme of recent years. We are the warmest on record through the 23rd at several locations.

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Mean Avg Temperature Sep 1 to Oct 23	Missing Count
1	2021-10-23	69.7	0
2	2017-10-23	68.6	0
-	2007-10-23	68.6	0
3	1961-10-23	68.4	0
4	2005-10-23	68.1	0
5	1990-10-23	67.7	0
6	1971-10-23	67.6	0
7	1959-10-23	67.4	0
8	2016-10-23	67.3	0
9	1968-10-23	67.2	0
10	2011-10-23	67.0	0

 

Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Mean Avg Temperature Sep 1 to Oct 23	Missing Count
1	2021-10-23	68.1	0
-	2017-10-23	68.1	0
2	1971-10-23	68.0	0
3	2007-10-23	67.6	0
4	1961-10-23	67.5	0
5	2005-10-23	67.2	0
-	1959-10-23	67.2	0
6	2016-10-23	66.8	0
-	2015-10-23	66.8	0
7	1983-10-23	66.7	0
8	2018-10-23	66.4	0
9	2011-10-23	66.2	0
10	1995-10-23	66.1	0
-	1990-10-23	66.1	0

 

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Mean Avg Temperature Sep 1 to Oct 23	Missing Count
1	2021-10-23	66.7	0
2	2017-10-23	66.5	0
3	2005-10-23	65.9	0
4	2007-10-23	65.7	0
5	1990-10-23	65.5	0
6	2018-10-23	65.2	0
-	2011-10-23	65.2	0
7	2016-10-23	64.9	0
-	1980-10-23	64.9	0
8	2015-10-23	64.4	0
9	1971-10-23	64.2	0
10	2014-10-23	63.6	0
-	1998-10-23	63.6	0
-	1983-10-23	63.6	0

I'm impressed with how 1983 still held onto the warmth this late and then went full on extremely cold starting in December, and that was also a la nina, but one in a drier climate regime, might look at that year as an analog for this winter.  Although the previous year being an extreme el nino might give one pause.

Think JFK can hit 80 one last time for the year on Monday?

 

 

[nyrangers1022]

6 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

and still have not reached freezing in any part of our area, not to mention Monticello, Mount Pocono, Westhampton, Toms River, Marthas Vineyard or Scranton!

 

 

Going up to Monticello to stay the night at the casino.  Maybe some good colors there.   Also see you're from Oceanside.  Their fire dept is our "sister station" as they say

[bluewave]

3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I'm impressed with how 1983 still held onto the warmth this late and then went full on extremely cold starting in December, and that was also a la nina, but one in a drier climate regime, might look at that year as an analog for this winter.  Although the previous year being an extreme el nino might give one pause.

Think JFK can hit 80 one last time for the year on Monday?

 

 

Looks like too much onshore flow on Monday at JFK. But areas away from the ocean influence have a shot at 80°. It’s tough to use analogs before 2010 since our climate has changed so much since then. 

[LibertyBell]

27 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Looks like too much onshore flow on Monday at JFK. But areas away from the ocean influence have a shot at 80°. It’s tough to use analogs before 2010 since our climate has changed so much since then. 

the interesting thing about 1983 is that was an early warning shot about summers to come with its rainy hot humid summer.

 

[donsutherland1]

A warm front is pushing across the region. As a result, tomorrow will see brief surge of unseasonable warmth ahead of what will become a stormy pattern. Readings will likely reach the lower and middle 70s in many parts of the region. The warmest spots could see temperatures rise into the upper 70s.

Tuesday and again later in the week, storms could bring a significant rainfall to parts of the region. The first storm could bring a general 1.50"-3.50" of rain to much of the region on Tuesday into Wednesday with locally higher amounts. With 52.48" of rain through October 24th, 2021 ranks as New York City's 31st wettest year on record. By the end of this week, 2021 will likely rank as among New York City's 20 wettest years on record. No sharp cold shots appear likely through the remainder of October.

Out West, a powerful storm is bringing high winds and heavy rains to northern California into parts of Nevada. As of 5 pm, rainfall totals include:

Redding, CA: 2.91" (old record: 2.29", 2010)
Reno: 0.90" (old record: 0.86", 1951)
Sacramento: 2.42" (old record: 1.08", 2010)

The following locations are on course to challenge or establish new record high lowest monthly temperatures for October (through October 24 4 pm):

Bridgeport: 43° (record: 41°, 2004)
Buffalo: 42° (record: 39°, 1971)
Islip: 42° (record: 40°, 1971 and 2017)
New York City-JFK: 47° (record: 46°, 1971)
New York City-LGA: 51° (record: 47°, 1971)
New York City-NYC: 47° (record: 45°, 1946 and 1971)
Newark: 46° (record: 45°, 1971)
Philadelphia: 46° (record: 45°, 1882, 1927 and 1931)
Poughkeepsie: 36° (record: 35°, 1971, 1995 and 1996)
White Plains: 41° (record: 40°, 1971)

In northern Maine, Caribou has yet to experience its first freeze of autumn. The prior record latest first freeze occurred on October 17, 1970. The normal first freeze (1991-2020) occurs on September 25th, which was an increase of 2 days over the prior 1981-2010 base period.

The MJO had completed its passage through Phase 5 at a very high amplitude during the first half of October. During the 1991-2020 period, there were 6 cases with passage through Phase 5 with at least three days at an amplitude of 1.500 or above: 1998, 2000, 2004, 2010, 2017, and 2020. There was a strong signal for the second half of October to wind up warmer than normal (83%) cases in the New York City area. However, that signal broke down to a 50-50 split for the first 10 days of November. That hints at possible timing for a pattern transition depending on the pattern evolution and changes in the teleconnections.

However, there is a chance that one could warmth return after a cooler than normal to near normal first week of November. The October 22-24 period saw a rare case where the AO was +0.75 or above while the NAO was -0.75 or below. There have been only 9 prior days during the second half of October (1950-2020), comprising just 0.8% of the period. Those days occurred during 1961, 1970, 1973, 1975, 2006, and 2008. In five of those six years, the first half of November saw warm anomalies in the Northeast.

Fall 2021 will likely be wetter to much wetter than normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region. Since 1869, there have been 9 August cases where New York City picked up 20.00" or more rainfall during the summer. Two thirds of those cases (and 4/5 of those with summer mean temperatures of 73.0° or above) had 17.00" or more fall precipitation in New York City. 2011 is probably the closest match in terms of precipitation and a nearly identical summer mean temperature. Mean fall precipitation for those 9 cases was 14.86". The median was 17.35". The 1991-2020 normal value is 12.27".

Following very wet July-September periods, winter (December-February) precipitation has typically been near or below normal. The most recent exception was winter 2018-19.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around October 13. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.15°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.43°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through at least mid-winter.

The SOI was -21.08 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.938 today.

On October 22 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 0.605 (RMM). The October 21-adjusted amplitude was 0.427 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 62.0° (4.1° above normal).

 

[Rtd208]

Upton also hitting the late week/weekend system hard in their Hydrology Discussion.

Rainfall of at least 1 to 3 inches, and possibly as high as 2 to 4
inches, will accompany a slow moving low pressure system late
Thursday night through Saturday night. The potential for the
heaviest rainfall looks to be Friday night into Saturday afternoon.
Impacts will depend greatly on antecedent conditions from the storm
impacting the region early this week. At least minor impacts can be
expected.

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts…

Caribou finally saw the temperature fall to 32° this morning. That is the latest first freeze on record. The prior record was October 17, 1970. Yesterday, Sacramento picked up an all-time daily record rainfall of 5.41” and San Francisco picked up an autumn record and 3rd highest daily rainfall of 4.02”.

Today will mostly cloudy and very warm. High temperatures will likely reach the lower and middle 70s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 71°

Newark: 75°

Philadelphia: 76°

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 61.2°; 15-Year: 61.6°

Newark: 30-Year: 62.7°; 15-Year: 63.4°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 63.8°; 15-Year: 64.0°

A storm will bring a widespread 2”-4” rainfall with locally higher amounts tomorrow into Wednesday.

[CIK62]

The last 7 days of October are averaging 59degs.(54/63), or +5.

Month to date is  63.4[+4.2].        October should end at  62.4[+4.4].

Reached 61 here yesterday.

Today:  67-71, wind s. to e., cloudy, rain around sunset.     A total of 5" showing on all models before month is over.

64*(90%RH) here at 6am{up from 59 at midnite}.      69* at Noon.      70* at 12:30pm.

 

[Neblizzard]

22 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Those super warm SSTs are positively feeding back into the SE ridge/WAR. Given the La Niña/-PDO and those SSTs off the east coast, I think the SE ridge is going to be a big player this winter 

And if there’s enough blocking in the higher latitudes the SE ridge will be muted . Much like last winter. 

[the_other_guy]

21 hours ago, nyrangers1022 said:

 

Going up to Monticello to stay the night at the casino.  Maybe some good colors there.   Also see you're from Oceanside.  Their fire dept is our "sister station" as they say

Lots of color in westchester. I am imagining they are just at or past peak? Share pics!

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, Neblizzard said:

And if there’s enough blocking in the higher latitudes the SE ridge will be muted . Much like last winter. 

That has been the story since the super El Niño. Warmer winters overall with a strong WAR or SE Ridge in the means. But impressive blocking intervals that always seemed to produce snowstorms for us. So more of a snowy and mild spring in the Rockies type of winter pattern. The record SSTs to the east were like rocket fuel for heavy snowstorms. 

 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Morning thoughts…

Caribou finally saw the temperature fall to 32° this morning. That is the latest first freeze on record. The prior record was October 17, 1970. Yesterday, Sacramento picked up an all-time daily record rainfall of 5.41” and San Francisco picked up an autumn record and 3rd highest daily rainfall of 4.02”.

Today will mostly cloudy and very warm. High temperatures will likely reach the lower and middle 70s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 71°

Newark: 75°

Philadelphia: 76°

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 61.2°; 15-Year: 61.6°

Newark: 30-Year: 62.7°; 15-Year: 63.4°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 63.8°; 15-Year: 64.0°

A storm will bring a widespread 2”-4” rainfall with locally higher amounts tomorrow into Wednesday.

Any insight on how much snow fell in the Sierras? I’d have to imagine the snow level was high, but above it many feet fell. Good start to the winter snow pack!

[donsutherland1]

4 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Any insight on how much snow fell in the Sierras? I’d have to imagine the snow level was high, but above it many feet fell. Good start to the winter snow pack!

I’ve heard unofficial estimates of 4-5 feet, but haven’t seen concrete numbers.