CIK62 Posted October 23, 2021 Share Posted October 23, 2021 The next 8 days are averaging 59degs.(54/65)., or +5. Month to date is 64.3[+4.8]. Could be 62.9[+4.9] by the 31st. Reached 71 here yesterday. Today: 57-61, wind n., cloudy, some drizzle. 54*(58%RH) here at 6am. 53* at 7am, drizzle----saw a truncated rainbow near sw horizon from me. 56* at Noon. 61* at 3pm. Reached 63* at 4pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 23, 2021 Share Posted October 23, 2021 The upcoming forecast is a great example of how an early season stratospheric warming can push back against an unfavorable Pacific. The EPS now has a stronger +PNA -NAO pattern to start November. The series of impressive storms in the Northeast this week will finally flatten out the SE Ridge. So Monday looks like it will be the warmest day for a while. Even though we will experience more troughing going forward, the airmass under the +PNA -NAO block is initially of Pacific origin. So much less warm than the 70s and recent 80s. But nothing overly cold yet for this time of year. This type of push back interval against the Pacific is what we will want to see in DJF for our snowfall windows of opportunities. New run Old Run 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 23, 2021 Share Posted October 23, 2021 Morning thoughts… It will mostly cloudy and noticeably cooler. High temperatures will likely reach the upper 50s and lower 60s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 58° Newark: 63° Philadelphia: 63° Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 61.9°; 15-Year: 62.4° Newark: 30-Year: 63.4°; 15-Year: 64.2° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 64.5°; 15-Year: 64.9° Tomorrow will be another cool day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 23, 2021 Share Posted October 23, 2021 6 hours ago, LibertyBell said: Don is there a chance Caribou and our area wont experience the first freeze until November? Do you have the numbers for Mount Pocono and Scranton too? If Caribou makes it through tonight and tomorrow night without a freeze (models show 33-35), it could see its first freeze in November. Record late first freezes: Mount Pocono: November 1, 1920 Scranton: November 15, 1946 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 23, 2021 Share Posted October 23, 2021 45 minutes ago, bluewave said: The upcoming forecast is a great example of how an early season stratospheric warming can push back against an unfavorable Pacific. The EPS now has a stronger +PNA -NAO pattern to start November. The series of impressive storms in the Northeast this week will finally flatten out the SE Ridge. So Monday looks like it will be the warmest day for a while. Even though we will experience more troughing going forward, the airmass under the +PNA -NAO block is initially of Pacific origin. So much less warm than the 70s and recent 80s. But nothing overly cold yet for this time of year. This type of push back interval against the Pacific is what we will want to see in DJF for our snowfall windows of opportunities. New run Old Run Great post. I’m seeing tweets from amateurs proclaiming that it’s going to get cold, all they see is a +PNA and -NAO and think that means cold….not when all you’re doing is trapping PAC maritime air with the blocks….cooler? Yes. Cold? Not with that setup, the EPO is still + Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 23, 2021 Share Posted October 23, 2021 5 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Great post. I’m seeing tweets from amateurs proclaiming that it’s going to get cold, all they see is a +PNA and -NAO and think that means cold….not when all you’re doing is trapping PAC maritime air with the blocks….cooler? Yes. Cold? Not with that setup, the EPO is still + The impressive part is that we got one of the stratospheric warming precursor patterns this month. The strong +EPO -NAO matches one of the clusters in the paper below. While the models do show a quick recovery of the vortex, this type of pattern would be a window of opportunity during DJF for snow. https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2017GL074611 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 23, 2021 Share Posted October 23, 2021 8 minutes ago, bluewave said: The impressive part is that we got one of the stratospheric warming precursor patterns this month. The strong +EPO -NAO matches one of the clusters in the paper below. While the models do show a quick recovery of the vortex, this type of pattern would be a window of opportunity during DJF for snow. https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2017GL074611 I read that paper, good stuff. The questions now become, 1, after the upcoming recovery, how strong does the vortex become by the end of November/beginning of December and 2, are there more warmings coming down the road? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 23, 2021 Share Posted October 23, 2021 30 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Great post. I’m seeing tweets from amateurs proclaiming that it’s going to get cold, all they see is a +PNA and -NAO and think that means cold….not when all you’re doing is trapping PAC maritime air with the blocks….cooler? Yes. Cold? Not with that setup, the EPO is still + They are also banking on the MJO bringing the cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 23, 2021 Share Posted October 23, 2021 52 and Cloudy here with sprinkles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted October 23, 2021 Share Posted October 23, 2021 Please no Halloween storm.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 23, 2021 Share Posted October 23, 2021 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 23, 2021 Share Posted October 23, 2021 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 23, 2021 Share Posted October 23, 2021 As the sun broke through the clouds, the mercury pushed toward 60 degrees. There are now growing hints of the seasonal progression despite the unseasonable warmth that has defined much of autumn so far. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 23, 2021 Share Posted October 23, 2021 Under mostly cloudy skies with some late-day sunshine, the temperature rose only into the upper 50s and lower 60s. Tomorrow will feature more sunshine, and it will be a bit milder. Monday will see brief surge of warmth ahead of what will become a stormy pattern. Tuesday and again later in the week, storms could bring a significant rainfall to parts of the region. The first storm could bring a general 1"-3" of rain to much of the region on Tuesday into Wednesday. No sharp cold shots appear likely through the remainder of October. The following locations are on course to challenge or establish new record high lowest monthly temperatures for October (through October 21): Allentown: 40° (record: 38°, 1971) Boston: 46° (record: 45°, 1971) Bridgeport: 43° (record: 41°, 2004) Islip: 42° (record: 40°, 1971 and 2017) New York City-JFK: 48° (record: 46°, 1971) New York City-LGA: 51° (record: 47°, 1971) New York City-NYC: 47° (record: 45°, 1946 and 1971) Newark: 46° (record: 45°, 1971) Philadelphia: 46° (record: 45°, 1882, 1927 and 1931) Poughkeepsie: 38° (record: 35°, 1971, 1995 and 1996) White Plains: 44° (record: 40°, 1971) In northern Maine, Caribou has yet to experience its first freeze of autumn. The prior record latest first freeze occurred on October 17, 1970. The normal first freeze (1991-2020) occurs on September 25th, which was an increase of 2 days over the prior 1981-2010 base period. The MJO had completed its passage through Phase 5 at a very high amplitude during the first half of October. During the 1991-2020 period, there were 6 cases with passage through Phase 5 with at least three days at an amplitude of 1.500 or above: 1998, 2000, 2004, 2010, 2017, and 2020. There was a strong signal for the second half of October to wind up warmer than normal (83%) cases in the New York City area. However, that signal broke down to a 50-50 split for the first 10 days of November. That hints at possible timing for a pattern transition depending on the pattern evolution and changes in the teleconnections. Fall 2021 will likely be wetter to much wetter than normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region. Since 1869, there have been 9 August cases where New York City picked up 20.00" or more rainfall during the summer. Two thirds of those cases (and 4/5 of those with summer mean temperatures of 73.0° or above) had 17.00" or more fall precipitation in New York City. 2011 is probably the closest match in terms of precipitation and a nearly identical summer mean temperature. Mean fall precipitation for those 9 cases was 14.86". The median was 17.35". The 1991-2020 normal value is 12.27". Following very wet July-September periods, winter (December-February) precipitation has typically been near or below normal. The most recent exception was winter 2018-19. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around October 13. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.15°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.43°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through at least mid-winter. The SOI was -22.18 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.087 today. On October 21 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 0.433 (RMM). The October 20-adjusted amplitude was 0.498 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 62.0° (4.1° above normal). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted October 23, 2021 Share Posted October 23, 2021 Off and on sprinkles; 55. Got a decent walk in the woods with the kids. Peak color for NJ. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 23, 2021 Share Posted October 23, 2021 Why did psv give me a weenie ? Consensus is growing for a cold November . 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyrangers1022 Posted October 23, 2021 Share Posted October 23, 2021 14 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Why did psv give me a weenie ? Consensus is growing for a cold November . That sucks. I want to golf into December like last year. Hopefully it stays dry 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 23, 2021 Share Posted October 23, 2021 Trolls 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 23, 2021 Share Posted October 23, 2021 LoL 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted October 23, 2021 Share Posted October 23, 2021 Just now, MJO812 said: LoL Was just looking at that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted October 23, 2021 Share Posted October 23, 2021 Hope it’s warm and dry…supposed to have my house resided. My contractors have taken long enough as is 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 24, 2021 Share Posted October 24, 2021 a look at years with a warm October and how the fall progressed... warm Oct/Nov/Dec 1953... 1973... 1990... Warm Oct cold Nov mild Dec... 1949... 1959... 1971... 1984... 2007... 2013... 2014... warm Oct/Nov...Cold Dec... 1950... 1961... 1963... 1975... 1985... warm Oct Cold Nov/Dec... 1954... 1955... 1968... 1995... 2017... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 24, 2021 Share Posted October 24, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rmine1 Posted October 24, 2021 Share Posted October 24, 2021 Moderate rain, 55 deg in Brightwaters. Refreshing 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 24, 2021 Share Posted October 24, 2021 16 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: If Caribou makes it through tonight and tomorrow night without a freeze (models show 33-35), it could see its first freeze in November. Record late first freezes: Mount Pocono: November 1, 1920 Scranton: November 15, 1946 Have both gotten to 35 already but not 32 yet? I see Caribou still hasn't hit 32! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 24, 2021 Share Posted October 24, 2021 3 hours ago, Rmine1 said: Moderate rain, 55 deg in Brightwaters. Refreshing this rain was a surprise, it wasn't supposed to rain tonight! it was accompanied by a big temp drop from 60 to 52 so I guess there was a cold front passage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 24, 2021 Share Posted October 24, 2021 12 hours ago, MJO812 said: Mike Masco is Joe Bastardi Jr lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted October 24, 2021 Share Posted October 24, 2021 42F Coldest night so far Of course weeklies long range aren’t reliable… The thing that I’m sure a lot of posters find frustrating is that many of us take the warm weeklies and hang onto them like they’re gospel, but when we see long range cold, we dismiss it as unreliable. Food for thought on an early Sunday… 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted October 24, 2021 Share Posted October 24, 2021 The last 8 days of October are averaging 58degs.(53/64), or +4. Month to date is 63.8[+4.5]. October should end near 62.3[+4.3]. Reached 63 here yesterday. Today: 58-62, wind w. to s. sky clear to p. cloudy later. The rain for the rest of the month from the two potential storms is 4"-6" on the EURO/GFS and under 2" for the CMC. We are way BN after 3 months of +10"., just 0.52" so far. 51*(80%RH) here at 6am. 50* at 7am. 52* at 9am. 58* at Noon. 56* at 1pm........but up to 61* at 3pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted October 24, 2021 Share Posted October 24, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now