Brian5671 Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 4 hours ago, snowman19 said: If it gets colder later next month it will come from a PAC reshuffle with the tropical convective forcing, not from some crazy SSW and super weak SPV like Joe Bastardi has been hyping to no end for the last 2 months. His wishcast of a major SSW/super weak SPV causing an uber cold November - January looks to be an epic fail incoming JB has jumped the shark. No one really gives him much credence anymore.... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 How can anyone say what January will be ? Long range forecasts have taken a big hit in the last 2 years. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 4 minutes ago, MJO812 said: How can anyone say what January will be ? Long range forecasts have taken a big hit in the last 2 years. Magic 8 ball? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 19 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: Magic 8 ball? Last winter was supposed to be a winter with lack of snow but it was the opposite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 warming quickly here-maybe another over-performer on temps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 Low of only 61 here…63 at ISP, have to be record high minimums? We probably get cooler than that before midnight but that is a warm min for late October Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 63 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 3 hours ago, snowman19 said: I never made a winter forecast last year lol Check out your posts from last November..All doom and gloom 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 44 minutes ago, KEITH L.I said: Check out your posts from last November..All doom and gloom To be fair most were thinking we were doomed last Nov. I did too. I thought it would be a miracle if we made it normal snow and most us made it to 40”. I would say the tea leaves so far generally indicate a lousy/warm winter again but lots of factors at play besides just La Niña which the NWS prediction essentially took Nina climo off the printer and used that for the winter outlook. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 5 minutes ago, jm1220 said: To be fair most were thinking we were doomed last Nov. I did too. I thought it would be a miracle if we made it normal snow and most us made it to 40”. I would say the tea leaves so far generally indicate a lousy/warm winter again but lots of factors at play besides just La Niña which the NWS prediction essentially took Nina climo off the printer and used that for the winter outlook. To early to talk about the winter. Every Fall this happens on the boards..Lets not get ahead of ourselves..Let it play out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 I don’t even remember last winter lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 2 minutes ago, psv88 said: I don’t even remember last winter lol The 15” storm we got on 2/1? I definitely remember that lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 10 minutes ago, jm1220 said: To be fair most were thinking we were doomed last Nov. I did too. I thought it would be a miracle if we made it normal snow and most us made it to 40”. I would say the tea leaves so far generally indicate a lousy/warm winter again but lots of factors at play besides just La Niña which the NWS prediction essentially took Nina climo off the printer and used that for the winter outlook. Above normal temps and above normal snowfall has become a good bet. It's what we've seen so much of in the the last 2 decades. We're able to pull off big snowstorms in warm winters and mediocre to lousy patterns in this new climate that we have. It has become a Colorado-like climate with the combination of warmer temps and plenty of big snowstorms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 This winter like most will come down to the NAO. There are good signs that we will have episodes of blocking which will certainly help our cause, but will it be a dominating force or just brief occurrences? Unfortunately the NAO is a very difficult feature to forecast especially in the long range. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 1 hour ago, KEITH L.I said: Check out your posts from last November..All doom and gloom The only thing that saved last winter from being a wall to wall dumpster fire was the SSWE in January that gave us 3 weeks of winter in February (2/1-2/22). It was a 3 week winter, the one lone snowstorm in mid-December that was melted down to nothing in less a week, 60’s on Christmas Eve. Nothing at all in January, nothing at all in March. Had it not been for that SSW, it would have been one of the worst winters of all time, right up there with 97-98, 01-02 and 11-12 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 42 minutes ago, psv88 said: I don’t even remember last winter lol basically a 3 week winter. One storm around 12/17 with a foot area wide, big xmas warmup-Jan mild/dry, Feb 1-21 big snows, then March was fairly average temp wise but no snow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 72 degrees here. No surprise that temps went higher than forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 Remember when the models had Monday as cool and wet? Now we get warm sectored. The usual warm spots in NJ may make another run on 80° with enough sun. New run Old run 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 1 hour ago, jm1220 said: To be fair most were thinking we were doomed last Nov. I did too. I thought it would be a miracle if we made it normal snow and most us made it to 40”. I would say the tea leaves so far generally indicate a lousy/warm winter again but lots of factors at play besides just La Niña which the NWS prediction essentially took Nina climo off the printer and used that for the winter outlook. Blocking ftw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 13 minutes ago, bluewave said: Remember when the models had Monday as cool and wet? Now we get warm sectored. The usual warm spots in NJ may make another run on 80° with enough sun. New run Old run Ridge once again pushed the storm further north but we will still get rain. 2 rainstorms on the models for next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarrenCtyWx Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 Many of our very good winters consist of one good storm and a great three weeks of winter. Any winter with one great month (February) and one decent month (December) should at least warrant a "very good" rating in my book. Otherwise the same could be said about winters like 04-05 and 09-10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 23 minutes ago, bluewave said: Remember when the models had Monday as cool and wet? Now we get warm sectored. The usual warm spots in NJ may make another run on 80° with enough sun. New run Old run Yeah that seems to be the question, is Monday in or out of the warm sector Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: The only thing that saved last winter from being a wall to wall dumpster fire was the SSWE in January that gave us 3 weeks of winter in February (2/1-2/22). It was a 3 week winter, the one lone snowstorm in mid-December that was melted down to nothing in less a week, 60’s on Christmas Eve. Nothing at all in January, nothing at all in March. Had it not been for that SSW, it would have been one of the worst winters of all time, right up there with 97-98, 01-02 and 11-12 Ah yes, had the winter things that had happened last winter, not happened, then it would have been a terrible winter. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 15 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Blocking ftw Give me some blocking and our well above normal SST and lets roll the dice on a monster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 13 hours ago, Rjay said: Decent look if it was winter. A bit flat out west though. Temperature would be a issue with a flow from the pac 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 13 hours ago, snowman19 said: Evidence is mounting for a rebound and strengthening of the SPV next month: The PV gain strength during last November as well. It was one of the reasons the month started out with 70 degree weather. It eventually started breaking down in December and never recovered 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: The only thing that saved last winter from being a wall to wall dumpster fire was the SSWE in January that gave us 3 weeks of winter in February (2/1-2/22). It was a 3 week winter, the one lone snowstorm in mid-December that was melted down to nothing in less a week, 60’s on Christmas Eve. Nothing at all in January, nothing at all in March. Had it not been for that SSW, it would have been one of the worst winters of all time, right up there with 97-98, 01-02 and 11-12 Lolz 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 1 hour ago, Brian5671 said: basically a 3 week winter. One storm around 12/17 with a foot area wide, big xmas warmup-Jan mild/dry, Feb 1-21 big snows, then March was fairly average temp wise but no snow Last February was one of the best ever around here. 36" of snow and wall to wall snowcover for the month. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 Just now, FPizz said: Last February was one of the best ever around here. 36" of snow and wall to wall snowcover for the month. we capitalized for sure. I had a good 20 inch snowpack by the end of it.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 Just now, FPizz said: Last February was one of the best ever around here. 36" of snow and wall to wall snowcover for the month. Historic 3-4 week stretch at many locations in NNJ and nyc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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