donsutherland1 Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: During a La Nina with a strongly negative fall PDO? I didn’t see that in your comment. I’ll look into such winters and post what I find. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 29 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: A warm fall Oct/Nov guarantees a warm winter. We have to accept that winters will be warm from now on but that's doesn't mean we can't get a lot of snow still. I really don't want to post stuff from last October and November on this board but the same posts by the same people, saying the same exact thing about last winter, and basically every October and November since social media was a thing.,,It's not supposed to be cold and wintry in October and the most part of November. The usual first snowfall in NYC is mid or late December. We got 2 months to go.There is no way of knowing the pattern 2 months out. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 On 10/11/2021 at 4:14 PM, forkyfork said: whenever we get sun we go past the forecast high 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 Just now, forkyfork said: Yep. Almost every time, regardless of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 53 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: A warm fall Oct/Nov guarantees a warm winter. We have to accept that winters will be warm from now on but that's doesn't mean we can't get a lot of snow still. Not necessarily, there have been warmer than normal October and November in the past that lead to cold/snowy winters. The problem is when all 3 months (September, October, November) are warmer than normal, that it almost always leads to a bad outcome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said: During a La Nina with a strongly negative fall PDO? The sample size is really small. 1970-71 and 1973-74 were fairly cold, but not severely cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 3 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: The sample size is really small. 1970-71 and 1973-74 were fairly cold, but not severely cold. 1970-71 was pretty cold from Christmas into the first week of Feb...its one of the coldest for that period... hope my math is correct... her is the list... year...Dec 20th-Feb 6th... 1976-77.....23.6... 1947-48.....25.9... 1980-81.....25.9... 1969-70.....26.4... 1993-94.....26.8... 1970-71.....26.9... 1960-61.....27.2... 1975-76.....28.4... 1995-96.....28.7... 1977-78.....28.8... 1983-84.....29.3... 1962-63.....29.4... 2010-11.....29.5... 1967-68.....29.8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: Not necessarily, there have been warmer than normal October and November in the past that lead to cold/snowy winters. The problem is when all 3 months (September, October, November) are warmer than normal, that it almost always leads to a bad outcome Correct. The guys glossing it over by saying every winter is above normal are missing the point. using the new baseline, it still would be a warmer than normal winter. Lets see what November brings. This week is shot again. Back above normal already, 80 tomorrow, 70s through Friday. It doesn’t signal a cool down or a pattern change, but rather a transient cool shot. Let’s see how we do early next week. If late next week starts to look like 70 again, you know what we are dealing with…and it isnt good 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER ACCORDING TO G-D ie. the EURO: 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 Hopefully that quick lesson in stats will squash some (we know some of you cant help it) of the declarations. yea right. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 The Euro weekly forecasts for the next month are usually more reliable a few days before the new month starts. It did exhibit a cold bias for October compared to the actual temperatures. But the pattern of the warmest departures near the Great Lakes worked out very well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 i think you're better off using 500mb anomalies. for example in 2015 the seasonal models got the major pacific ridge correct but not the downstream cold 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 After a chilly start, temperatures moderated under strong sunshine. Highs generally reached the middle and upper 60s across the region. Newark reached 70° for the 171st time this year. As a result, 2021 is now tied with 1985 and 2015 for the 2nd most days on record. Warmer air will return tomorrow. Tomorrow through Friday will be unseasonably warm. Another cool shot is likely for the weekend. The MJO has now completed its passage through Phase 5 at a very high amplitude. During the 1991-2020 period, there were 6 cases with passage through Phase 5 with at least three days at an amplitude of 1.500 or above: 1998, 2000, 2004, 2010, 2017, and 2020. There was a strong signal for the second half of October to wind up warmer than normal (83%) cases in the New York City area. However, that signal broke down to a 50-50 split for the first 10 days of November. That hints at possible timing for a pattern transition depending on the pattern evolution and changes in the teleconnections. Fall 2021 will likely be wetter to much wetter than normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region. Since 1869, there have been 9 August cases where New York City picked up 20.00" or more rainfall during the summer. Two thirds of those cases (and 4/5 of those with summer mean temperatures of 73.0° or above) had 17.00" or more fall precipitation in New York City. 2011 is probably the closest match in terms of precipitation and a nearly identical summer mean temperature. Mean fall precipitation for those 9 cases was 14.86". The median was 17.35". The 1991-2020 normal value is 12.27". Following very wet July-September periods, winter (December-February) precipitation has typically been near or below normal. The most recent exception was winter 2018-19. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around October 13. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.15°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.43°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through at least mid-winter. The SOI was +15.47 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.595 today. On October 17 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 0.374 (RMM). The October 16-adjusted amplitude was 0.594 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 96% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 61.6° (3.7° above normal). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 surprised we'd have a wetter than normal fall-it's been fairly dry since Sept and looks to stay that way for the foreseeable future....GFS/Euro very dry. CMC wetter but looks like a wonky solution. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 4 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: surprised we'd have a wetter than normal fall-it's been fairly dry since Sept and looks to stay that way for the foreseeable future.... Record blocking over Eastern Canada has kept things dry this month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 I remember back in 1971 when October was warm to the end...November turned out colder than normal with record cold...December reverted back to warmer than normal...it took until late January for real winter pattern to lock in for a month...like last year February was the coldest snowiest month...the real winter pattern was locked in for a month...1995-96 was locked in from 12/9 to 1/12...then a pause...then three more weeks the beginning of February and on and off in March ... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 6 hours ago, bluewave said: Yeah, that raging Pacific Jet will bring plenty of moisture to the West Coast in late October. They desperately need the rain/snow there and especially in the SW. If any good systems can make it there in this Nina year it would be a great thing. Usually Nina winters are wet/cold in the NW where it’s not as needed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 20, 2021 Share Posted October 20, 2021 42 minutes ago, jm1220 said: They desperately need the rain/snow there and especially in the SW. If any good systems can make it there in this Nina year it would be a great thing. Usually Nina winters are wet/cold in the NW where it’s not as needed. Looks like an impressive soaking next few weeks possibly down to Central California. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted October 20, 2021 Share Posted October 20, 2021 69/43 split today. Didn’t expect to almost reach 70, nor did I expect to see low 40’s. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 20, 2021 Share Posted October 20, 2021 7 hours ago, bluewave said: Newark is currently at 69.7° for the fall. While the sample size is small, all winters since 1991 following the 60° falls were warmer than average. So it will be interesting to see how November turns out. *All departures relative to 1981-2010 DJF Avg temperature of 34.2° *New 1991-2020 DJF avg temperature warmed to 35.3° La Niña years bolded Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature DJF Avg Temperature 2021 69.7..so far ? 2015 60.9 40.1….+5.9 2017 60.3 35.6...+1.4 2016 60.1 39.0..+4.8 2011 60.1 40.0…+5.8 1994 60.1 36.6..+2.4 2005 60.0 36.2….+2.0 I think the evidence is pretty clear then and currently November looks to start AN. Not as warm as October of course but still mild relative to normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 20, 2021 Share Posted October 20, 2021 18 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: I think the evidence is pretty clear then and currently November looks to start AN. Not as warm as October of course but still mild relative to normal. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted October 20, 2021 Share Posted October 20, 2021 Warm night, still 60 degrees 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 20, 2021 Share Posted October 20, 2021 2 hours ago, MJO812 said: That just confirms the warm start. Maybe things will change mid November but that's way out there. Speaking of warm, next 2 days will approach 80F again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 20, 2021 Share Posted October 20, 2021 Morning thoughts… It will partly to mostly sunny and unseasonably warm. High temperatures will likely reach the middle and upper 70s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 76° Newark: 80° Philadelphia: 78° Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 62.9°; 15-Year: 63.6° Newark: 30-Year: 64.4°; 15-Year: 65.4° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 65.6°; 15-Year: 66.1° The warm weather will continue through Friday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted October 20, 2021 Share Posted October 20, 2021 The next 8 days are averaging 59degs.(53/65), or +3. Month to date is 64.2[+4.1]. Could be 62.7[+3.8] by the 28th. Went from 49 to 69 here yesterday. Today: 74-78, w. wind, m. sunny. 58*(65%RH) here at 6am. 60* at 9am. 64* at 11am. 67* at Noon. 70* at 1pm. 74* at 3pm. 77* at 4pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 20, 2021 Share Posted October 20, 2021 6 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: That just confirms the warm start. Maybe things will change mid November but that's way out there. Speaking of warm, next 2 days will approach 80F again. October could have one heck of a positive anomoly....Dry too now which will add some to the warmth 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 20, 2021 Share Posted October 20, 2021 https://nypost.com/2021/10/20/nyc-to-be-affected-by-la-higher-snowfall-than-expected-in-november/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 20, 2021 Share Posted October 20, 2021 9 minutes ago, MJO812 said: https://nypost.com/2021/10/20/nyc-to-be-affected-by-la-higher-snowfall-than-expected-in-november/ It’s difficult to get more than a trace of snow during a La. Nina November in NYC. La Niña years bolded Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of NovClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Total Snowfall Missing Count 2020 0.0 0 2019 0.0 0 2018 6.4 0 2017 T 0 2016 T 0 2015 0.0 0 2014 0.2 0 2013 T 0 2012 4.7 0 2011 0.0 0 2010 T 0 2009 0.0 0 2008 T 0 2007 T 0 2006 0.0 0 2005 T 0 2004 T 0 2003 0.0 0 2002 T 0 2001 0.0 0 2000 0.0 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 20, 2021 Share Posted October 20, 2021 6 minutes ago, bluewave said: It’s difficult to get more than a trace of snow during a La. Nina November in NYC. La Niña years bolded Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of NovClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Total Snowfall Missing Count 2020 0.0 0 2019 0.0 0 2018 6.4 0 2017 T 0 2016 T 0 2015 0.0 0 2014 0.2 0 2013 T 0 2012 4.7 0 2011 0.0 0 2010 T 0 2009 0.0 0 2008 T 0 2007 T 0 2006 0.0 0 2005 T 0 2004 T 0 2003 0.0 0 2002 T 0 2001 0.0 0 2000 0.0 0 I rather wait until December for winter to kick in . I think many meteorologists are counting on the NAO to remain negative and the weak PV to remain weak until next year which would mean a cold November and December but then warmth for January and February. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 20, 2021 Share Posted October 20, 2021 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: I rather wait until December for winter to kick in . I think many meteorologists are counting on the NAO to remain negative and the weak PV to remain weak until next year which would mean a cold November and December but then warmth for January and February. That likely wont get us much snow if that turns out to be true.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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