MJO812 Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 Steve D was on Fox 5 Brutal winter possibly coming 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 At or very close to our warmest fall on record so far. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Sep 1 to Oct 18 Missing Count 1 2021-10-18 70.4 0 2 2005-10-18 69.6 0 - 1961-10-18 69.6 0 3 2017-10-18 69.1 0 4 1959-10-18 69.0 0 5 2007-10-18 68.8 0 6 1990-10-18 68.7 0 7 2018-10-18 68.5 0 - 1971-10-18 68.5 0 8 2011-10-18 68.0 0 - 1973-10-18 68.0 0 9 1983-10-18 67.9 0 10 2016-10-18 67.8 0 - 2015-10-18 67.8 0 - 1968-10-18 67.8 0 Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Sep 1 to Oct 18 Missing Count 1 2007-10-18 71.2 0 - 2005-10-18 71.2 0 2 2021-10-18 70.7 0 3 2018-10-18 70.2 0 4 2016-10-18 70.0 0 5 2017-10-18 69.9 0 6 1959-10-18 69.8 0 7 1961-10-18 69.2 0 8 1990-10-18 69.0 0 9 2015-10-18 68.6 0 - 1941-10-18 68.6 0 10 2019-10-18 68.4 0 Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Sep 1 to Oct 18 Missing Count 1 1971-10-18 68.9 0 2 2021-10-18 68.7 0 - 1961-10-18 68.7 0 - 1959-10-18 68.7 0 3 2017-10-18 68.6 0 - 2005-10-18 68.6 0 4 1983-10-18 68.4 0 5 2018-10-18 68.1 0 6 2015-10-18 67.9 0 7 2007-10-18 67.7 0 8 2016-10-18 67.2 0 9 2014-10-18 67.0 0 - 2011-10-18 67.0 0 - 1990-10-18 67.0 0 10 1970-10-18 66.8 0 Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Sep 1 to Oct 18 Missing Count 1 2021-10-18 67.4 0 2 2005-10-18 67.3 0 3 2017-10-18 67.1 0 4 2018-10-18 67.0 0 5 1990-10-18 66.4 0 6 2011-10-18 66.1 0 7 1980-10-18 66.0 0 8 2007-10-18 65.8 0 9 2015-10-18 65.5 0 10 1983-10-18 65.4 0 Time Series Summary for IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT, CTClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Sep 1 to Oct 18 Missing Count 1 2021-10-18 67.4 0 2 2017-10-18 67.2 0 3 2005-10-18 67.0 0 4 2018-10-18 66.9 0 5 2011-10-18 66.8 0 6 2016-10-18 66.6 0 7 1959-10-18 66.3 0 8 2007-10-18 66.1 0 - 1961-10-18 66.1 0 9 1971-10-18 65.9 0 10 2015-10-18 65.8 0 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 So after our one day “cool down” we are back to 75 mid week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 16 minutes ago, psv88 said: So after our one day “cool down” we are back to 75 mid week. Welcome to fall 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 38 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Steve D was on Fox 5 Brutal winter possibly coming Brutal for snow lovers? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 4 minutes ago, Cfa said: Brutal for snow lovers? Cold and snowy but long range forecasts are moot. Consensus is for a cold November but I hope we don't waste it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 23 minutes ago, psv88 said: So after our one day “cool down” we are back to 75 mid week. If the right conditions are in place this winter the current warmth could add fuel to the fire. SSTs are at record highs. After Dec 2015's insane warmth we got the Jan blizzard. Big IF though and we'll need plenty of blocking. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 52 minutes ago, bluewave said: At or very close to our warmest fall on record so far. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Sep 1 to Oct 18 Missing Count 1 2021-10-18 70.4 0 2 2005-10-18 69.6 0 - 1961-10-18 69.6 0 3 2017-10-18 69.1 0 4 1959-10-18 69.0 0 5 2007-10-18 68.8 0 6 1990-10-18 68.7 0 7 2018-10-18 68.5 0 - 1971-10-18 68.5 0 8 2011-10-18 68.0 0 - 1973-10-18 68.0 0 9 1983-10-18 67.9 0 10 2016-10-18 67.8 0 - 2015-10-18 67.8 0 - 1968-10-18 67.8 0 Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Sep 1 to Oct 18 Missing Count 1 2007-10-18 71.2 0 - 2005-10-18 71.2 0 2 2021-10-18 70.7 0 3 2018-10-18 70.2 0 4 2016-10-18 70.0 0 5 2017-10-18 69.9 0 6 1959-10-18 69.8 0 7 1961-10-18 69.2 0 8 1990-10-18 69.0 0 9 2015-10-18 68.6 0 - 1941-10-18 68.6 0 10 2019-10-18 68.4 0 Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Sep 1 to Oct 18 Missing Count 1 1971-10-18 68.9 0 2 2021-10-18 68.7 0 - 1961-10-18 68.7 0 - 1959-10-18 68.7 0 3 2017-10-18 68.6 0 - 2005-10-18 68.6 0 4 1983-10-18 68.4 0 5 2018-10-18 68.1 0 6 2015-10-18 67.9 0 7 2007-10-18 67.7 0 8 2016-10-18 67.2 0 9 2014-10-18 67.0 0 - 2011-10-18 67.0 0 - 1990-10-18 67.0 0 10 1970-10-18 66.8 0 Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Sep 1 to Oct 18 Missing Count 1 2021-10-18 67.4 0 2 2005-10-18 67.3 0 3 2017-10-18 67.1 0 4 2018-10-18 67.0 0 5 1990-10-18 66.4 0 6 2011-10-18 66.1 0 7 1980-10-18 66.0 0 8 2007-10-18 65.8 0 9 2015-10-18 65.5 0 10 1983-10-18 65.4 0 Time Series Summary for IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT, CTClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Sep 1 to Oct 18 Missing Count 1 2021-10-18 67.4 0 2 2017-10-18 67.2 0 3 2005-10-18 67.0 0 4 2018-10-18 66.9 0 5 2011-10-18 66.8 0 6 2016-10-18 66.6 0 7 1959-10-18 66.3 0 8 2007-10-18 66.1 0 - 1961-10-18 66.1 0 9 1971-10-18 65.9 0 10 2015-10-18 65.8 0 If November is also a warmer than normal month, that should seal it as a 1st or 2nd warmest met fall ever. September was also way above normal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 42 minutes ago, psv88 said: So after our one day “cool down” we are back to 75 mid week. Enjoy it while it lasts 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 Through October 18, Central Park has had a mean temperature of 64.6° (11th warmest). However, October 2021 would rank among the top 3 warmest starts to October without Central Park's trees issue. https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/55633-october-2021/?do=findComment&comment=6145116 Using the regression equation noted in the linked post, the figure would be approximately 67.4° (3rd warmest) without the trees issue. Using the shorter 1948-2021 period, which reflects the period of record for numerous local stations, it would rank 2nd. A ranking of 3rd would be in line with what has occurred around the region. Regional Ranking for Select Stations Record Length of 50 Years or More) and start of record: Albany: 4th (1874) Bridgeport: 5th (1948) Islip: 3rd (1963) New Brunswick: Tied 6th (1893) New Haven: 1st (1948) New York City-JFK: 4th (1948) New York City-LGA: 5th (1939) Newark: 2nd (1931) Philadelphia: Tied 5th (1873) Poughkeepsie: 2nd (1931) White Plains: 6th (1948) The biggest issue concerns artificially low maximum temperatures. The October 1-18 average high temperature at Central Park has been 70.3°. That is lower than the averages at both JFK Airport and LaGuardia Airport. In addition, on 16 of the 18 days (89%), Central Park registered the lowest maximum temperature or was tied with the lowest maximum temperature. In sum, the neglect of the trees issue at Central Park is impairing the integrity of the climate record when the trees are leafed out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 28 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Cold and snowy but long range forecasts are moot. Consensus is for a cold November but I hope we don't waste it. Don’t see that consensus for November 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 29 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Cold and snowy but long range forecasts are moot. Consensus is for a cold November but I hope we don't waste it. Usually too early for snow and then it breaks just when climo gets cold enough for snow... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 32 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Cold and snowy but long range forecasts are moot. Consensus is for a cold November but I hope we don't waste it. I’m starting to very seriously doubt a cold November, in fact I think it’s another warmer than normal month. We have a strengthening, coupled La Niña in place and I don’t see any reason for the -PNA/+EPO/-PDO/-PMM/+SOI to let up. Even if a -NAO/-AO was to develop with a PAC like that, all it would do is trap the junk maritime Pacific air flooding into Canada. We would need a large scale full pattern change in the PAC and I just don’t see it happening by next month, it’s a stagnant pattern there 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 1 minute ago, snowman19 said: I’m starting to very seriously doubt a cold November, in fact I think it’s another warmer than normal month. We have a strengthening, coupled La Niña in place and I don’t see any reason for the -PNA/+EPO/-PDO/-PMM to let up. Even if a -NAO/-AO was to develop with a PAC like that, all it would do is trap the junk maritime Pacific air flooding into Canada. We would need a large scale full pattern change in the PAC and I just don’t see it happening by next month, it’s a stagnant pattern there I'd actually root for that. Save the cold pattern (if it develops) for Dec/Jan 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 11 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: I'd actually root for that. Save the cold pattern (if it develops) for Dec/Jan Maybe it changes for December, but I don’t see anything to support a large scale pattern change in the PAC by November. The PAC, as is, definitely does not support any sustained cold, it’s been the same stagnant pattern there since the beginning of September Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 36 minutes ago, snowman19 said: If November is also a warmer than normal month, that should seal it as a 1st or 2nd warmest met fall ever. September was also way above normal While it’s outside the weeklies best range, they do start November warmer than average in the Northeast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 26 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Usually too early for snow and then it breaks just when climo gets cold enough for snow... Exactly. We saw what happened after the record cold in November 18/19. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 1 hour ago, qg_omega said: Welcome to fall Warmest fall on record so far 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 You know the Pacific Jet is on steroids when we get a record October low around 955-960 mb west of Washington and Oregon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 21 minutes ago, bluewave said: You know the Pacific Jet is on steroids when we get a record October low around 955-960 mb west of Washington and Oregon. Nightmare pattern for us if it were mid winter. We need to see big big changes if we want a snowy winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 1 hour ago, Brian5671 said: Usually too early for snow and then it breaks just when climo gets cold enough for snow... Let it be cold in December and January when it matters . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 20 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Nightmare pattern for us if it were mid winter. We need to see big big changes if we want a snowy winter. Pac ridge drives the winter imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 2 hours ago, snowman19 said: I’m starting to very seriously doubt a cold November, in fact I think it’s another warmer than normal month. We have a strengthening, coupled La Niña in place and I don’t see any reason for the -PNA/+EPO/-PDO/-PMM/+SOI to let up. Even if a -NAO/-AO was to develop with a PAC like that, all it would do is trap the junk maritime Pacific air flooding into Canada. We would need a large scale full pattern change in the PAC and I just don’t see it happening by next month, it’s a stagnant pattern there It will get cold if the MJO travels into the favorable phases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 7 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: An amazing rainbow. Thanks Don! Did it get into the 40s at JFK this morning? By the time I woke up it was already 52 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 1 hour ago, bluewave said: You know the Pacific Jet is on steroids when we get a record October low around 955-960 mb west of Washington and Oregon. they need the snow and cold a lot more than we do, they need to build up the snow pack out west, let's hope it gets down to Flagstaff and Tahoe, etc. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 1 minute ago, LibertyBell said: Thanks Don! Did it get into the 40s at JFK this morning? By the time I woke up it was already 52 lol Yes. 48. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 10 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: they need the snow and cold a lot more than we do, they need to build up the snow pack out west, let's hope it gets down to Flagstaff and Tahoe, etc. Yeah, that raging Pacific Jet will bring plenty of moisture to the West Coast in late October. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: Let it be cold in December and January when it matters . A warm fall Oct/Nov guarantees a warm winter. We have to accept that winters will be warm from now on but that's doesn't mean we can't get a lot of snow still. 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 19 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: A warm fall Oct/Nov guarantees a warm winter. We have to accept that winters will be warm from now on but that's doesn't mean we can't get a lot of snow still. October-November had mean temperatures of a half standard deviation or more above normal as recently as 2014 and a very cold winter (2014-15) followed. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 6 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: October-November had mean temperatures of a half standard deviation or more above normal as recently as 2014 and a very cold winter (2014-15) followed. During a La Nina with a strongly negative fall PDO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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