donsutherland1 Posted October 18, 2021 Share Posted October 18, 2021 Today was the coolest day so far this season. New York City and Philadelphia recorded low temperatures in the 40s for the first time this season. Tomorrow will be another cool day. After perhaps the coldest readings so far this season, the mercury will reach the lower and middle 60s across the area. Warmer air will return Wednesday. Another cool shot is likely for the weekend. Elsewhere, Bismarck recorded its 154th 70° day. That broke the annual record of 153 days, which had been set in 2016. Caribou has yet to record its first freeze of the season. The previous latest first freeze occurred on October 17, 1970. The MJO has now completed its passage through Phase 5 at a very high amplitude. During the 1991-2020 period, there were 6 cases with passage through Phase 5 with at least three days at an amplitude of 1.500 or above: 1998, 2000, 2004, 2010, 2017, and 2020. There was a strong signal for the second half of October to wind up warmer than normal (83%) cases in the New York City area. However, that signal broke down to a 50-50 split for the first 10 days of November. That hints at possible timing for a pattern transition depending on the pattern evolution and changes in the teleconnections. Fall 2021 will likely be wetter to much wetter than normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region. Since 1869, there have been 9 August cases where New York City picked up 20.00" or more rainfall during the summer. Two thirds of those cases (and 4/5 of those with summer mean temperatures of 73.0° or above) had 17.00" or more fall precipitation in New York City. 2011 is probably the closest match in terms of precipitation and a nearly identical summer mean temperature. Mean fall precipitation for those 9 cases was 14.86". The median was 17.35". The 1991-2020 normal value is 12.27". Following very wet July-September periods, winter (December-February) precipitation has typically been near or below normal. The most recent exception was winter 2018-19. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around October 13. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.15°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.43°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through at least mid-winter. The SOI was +19.66 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.464 today. On October 16 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 0.589 (RMM). The October 15-adjusted amplitude was 0.967 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 93% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 61.6° (3.7° above normal). 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted October 18, 2021 Share Posted October 18, 2021 High of 62. Low was 48. 53 right now but it feels colder. Had a nice double rainbow a short while ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 18, 2021 Share Posted October 18, 2021 21 minutes ago, Cfa said: High of 62. Low was 48. 53 right now but it feels colder. Had a nice double rainbow a short while ago. Did you have rain today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 18, 2021 Share Posted October 18, 2021 28 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: Today was the coolest day so far this season. New York City and Philadelphia recorded low temperatures in the 40s for the first time this season. Tomorrow will be another cool day. After perhaps the coldest readings so far this season, the mercury will reach the lower and middle 60s across the area. Warmer air will return Wednesday. Another cool shot is likely for the weekend. Elsewhere, Bismarck recorded its 154th 70° day. That broke the annual record of 153 days, which had been set in 2016. Caribou has yet to record its first freeze of the season. The previous latest first freeze occurred on October 17, 1970. The MJO has now completed its passage through Phase 5 at a very high amplitude. During the 1991-2020 period, there were 6 cases with passage through Phase 5 with at least three days at an amplitude of 1.500 or above: 1998, 2000, 2004, 2010, 2017, and 2020. There was a strong signal for the second half of October to wind up warmer than normal (83%) cases in the New York City area. However, that signal broke down to a 50-50 split for the first 10 days of November. That hints at possible timing for a pattern transition depending on the pattern evolution and changes in the teleconnections. Fall 2021 will likely be wetter to much wetter than normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region. Since 1869, there have been 9 August cases where New York City picked up 20.00" or more rainfall during the summer. Two thirds of those cases (and 4/5 of those with summer mean temperatures of 73.0° or above) had 17.00" or more fall precipitation in New York City. 2011 is probably the closest match in terms of precipitation and a nearly identical summer mean temperature. Mean fall precipitation for those 9 cases was 14.86". The median was 17.35". The 1991-2020 normal value is 12.27". Following very wet July-September periods, winter (December-February) precipitation has typically been near or below normal. The most recent exception was winter 2018-19. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around October 13. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.15°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.43°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through at least mid-winter. The SOI was +19.66 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.464 today. On October 16 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 0.589 (RMM). The October 15-adjusted amplitude was 0.967 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 93% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 61.6° (3.7° above normal). Hey Don did JFK get down into the 40s and stay in the 50s today too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 18, 2021 Share Posted October 18, 2021 Lake effect rocket fuel once it gets cold enough for snow around the Great Lakes. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted October 18, 2021 Share Posted October 18, 2021 1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said: A heavier shower moving out over the Long Island Sound resulted in a rainbow. Saw that today. Beautiful 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted October 18, 2021 Share Posted October 18, 2021 Heat kicked on today. First time this year. Finally feels like fall. High of 60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted October 18, 2021 Share Posted October 18, 2021 Down to 52 here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 18, 2021 Share Posted October 18, 2021 43 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Hey Don did JFK get down into the 40s and stay in the 50s today too? JFK had a low of 50 so far. It should be in the 40s tonight. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said: JFK had a low of 50 so far. It should be in the 40s tonight. Oh thanks did the high get to 60? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 3 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: A heavier shower moving out over the Long Island Sound resulted in a rainbow. Beautiful Don! I have heard because of the number of prismatic surfaces available near bodies of water, near places like the Long Island Sound you can actually see quadruple rainbows! (Two double rainbows!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 17 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Beautiful Don! I have heard because of the number of prismatic surfaces available near bodies of water, near places like the Long Island Sound you can actually see quadruple rainbows! (Two double rainbows!) I have never seen more than two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 19 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Oh thanks did the high get to 60? Yes. The high was 64. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SI Mailman Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 I kept my sweatjacket on all day while outside delivering. First day of doing that this season 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: Yes. The high was 64. wow huge difference between Central Park and JFK.....foliage again? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: I have never seen more than two. It is considered the rarest rainbow of them all. https://www.boredpanda.com/rare-quadruple-rainbow-double-rainbow-amanda-curtis-long-island-ny/?utm_source=google&utm_medium=organic&utm_campaign=organic Yesterday, a woman in Long Island, NY named Amanda Curtis was lucky enough to capture the rarest rainbow of them all – a quadruple rainbow. Her incredibly rare photo, and the excitement it inspired among commenters when it went viral, called to mind the viral ‘Double Rainbow’ video by Paul Vasquez. According to meteorologists, what Curtis actually saw was a double-double rainbow, but that doesn’t make it any less magical. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) research meteorologist Paul Neiman told the Washington Post that the second double rainbow resulted from the sun’s light reflecting off of a nearby body of water; “a large glassy-smooth water surface is required behind the observer. This smooth water surface reflects the sun, such that a second solar light source is generated. This reflected sun […] creates a second primary and secondary rainbow on the opposite side of the sky from the sun.” 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 Down to 46 here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 Morning thoughts… It will partly to mostly sunny and milder today. High temperatures will likely reach the middle and upper 60s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 65° Newark: 71° Philadelphia: 69° Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 63.3°; 15-Year: 64.0° Newark: 30-Year: 64.8°; 15-Year: 65.8° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 66.0°; 15-Year: 66.6° It will turn noticeably milder tomorrow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 6 hours ago, LibertyBell said: It is considered the rarest rainbow of them all. https://www.boredpanda.com/rare-quadruple-rainbow-double-rainbow-amanda-curtis-long-island-ny/?utm_source=google&utm_medium=organic&utm_campaign=organic Yesterday, a woman in Long Island, NY named Amanda Curtis was lucky enough to capture the rarest rainbow of them all – a quadruple rainbow. Her incredibly rare photo, and the excitement it inspired among commenters when it went viral, called to mind the viral ‘Double Rainbow’ video by Paul Vasquez. According to meteorologists, what Curtis actually saw was a double-double rainbow, but that doesn’t make it any less magical. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) research meteorologist Paul Neiman told the Washington Post that the second double rainbow resulted from the sun’s light reflecting off of a nearby body of water; “a large glassy-smooth water surface is required behind the observer. This smooth water surface reflects the sun, such that a second solar light source is generated. This reflected sun […] creates a second primary and secondary rainbow on the opposite side of the sky from the sun.” An amazing rainbow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 40 here; looks like temp inversion in the lower elevations. Wunderground showing mid-30s. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 The next 8 days are averaging 58degs.(53/65), or +2. Month to date is 64.6[+4.4]. Could be 63.2[+3.6] by the 27th. Reached 60* yesterday. Today: 64-67, w. wind, breezy, m. sunny. See-Saw T regime with Wednesdays and Thursdays being in the 70's----this week, next week and into November. In-between we get some BN stuff. Little rain unless there is a blowup around 10/29---11/01---for the next two weeks. 49*(70%RH) here at 6am. 51* at 9am. 57* at Noon. 60* at 1pm. 65* at 3pm. 67* at 4pm. Reached 69* near 5pm, for a full 20 degree swing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 POU finally got down to 38°. 10-19 was the latest first 30s by 4 days. The 2010s average first 30s is 9-27. So this is more than a month later than the 1951-1980 average of 9-17. https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/timeseries.php?sid=KPOU&num=72&banner=gmap&raw=0&w=325 First/Last Summary for Poughkeepsie Area, NY (ThreadEx)Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Last Value First Value Difference 1939 05-19 (1939) 39 10-15 (1939) 32 148 2018 05-01 (2018) 38 10-13 (2018) 38 164 1931 05-04 (1931) 34 10-11 (1931) 39 159 2015 05-14 (2015) 35 10-10 (2015) 39 148 2002 05-23 (2002) 36 10-08 (2002) 36 137 2011 05-08 (2011) 38 10-06 (2011) 36 150 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 Low was 42 here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 46 my low. One good thing about these mild conditions this fall, keeps the heating bills down as the price for oil skyrockets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 5 minutes ago, lee59 said: 46 my low. One good thing about these mild conditions this fall, keeps the heating bills down as the price for oil skyrockets. Yes. Had to turn on the heat this morning but the rest of the work week looks stellar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 some frost on the rooftops here. Down to 38. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 42 here. Saw several weather stations within 3 miles or so in the 30s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 43 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 Low of 45 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 36 minutes ago, psv88 said: 43 here FRG 47 ISP 42 FOX 37 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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