forkyfork Posted October 16, 2021 Share Posted October 16, 2021 On 9/17/2021 at 12:24 PM, bluewave said: It’s always interesting to see how the EPS weeklies compare with the SEAS5 seasonal forecast. The Euro seasonal was picking up on the October blocking potential from the forecast issued back in July. South based blocks can still have above normal temperatures in the Northeast like we saw last winter. So the latitude of the block is important. Early July forecast for October seems like it did a good job Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 16, 2021 Share Posted October 16, 2021 7 minutes ago, forkyfork said: seems like it did a good job Yeah, one of the most perfect October La Niña 500 mb patterns that we have ever seen. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyrangers1022 Posted October 16, 2021 Share Posted October 16, 2021 Had a severe thunder storm warning. Wimpy storm. Not much rain. Was more windy 2 hours before the storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 16, 2021 Share Posted October 16, 2021 The temperature rose into the middle 70s at the New York Botanical Garden. Inside, the chrysanthemum show is underway. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Claus Posted October 16, 2021 Share Posted October 16, 2021 it's 66 outside, my thermostat is about 72, and i feel pretty cool. global warming has broken my biological thermometer 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 16, 2021 Share Posted October 16, 2021 Gulf of Maine SSTs are the warmest on record for mid-October. https://mco.umaine.edu/gom_sst/ 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted October 16, 2021 Share Posted October 16, 2021 18 minutes ago, Will - Rutgers said: it's 66 outside, my thermostat is about 72, and i feel pretty cool. global warming has broken my biological thermometer Good evening Will. My biological thermometer hasn’t gone up in quite a awhile, global warming notwithstanding. As always …… 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Claus Posted October 16, 2021 Share Posted October 16, 2021 1 minute ago, rclab said: Good evening Will. My biological thermometer hasn’t gone up in quite a awhile, global warming notwithstanding. As always …… they make pills for that now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 16, 2021 Share Posted October 16, 2021 Some additional showers are likely, especially before midnight. Behind the frontal passage responsible for the showers and earlier thunderstorms, readings will return to near normal levels tomorrow and Monday. Warmer air will likely return near the middle of next week. Newark reached 70° for the 170th time this year. As a result, 2021 is now tied with 2007 for the 4th most days on record. Newark also reached 80° for the 115th time this year. That is the 2nd highest number of such days. At 11:59 pm yesterday, Bismarck saw the temperature dip to 32° under clear skies and a calm wind. That is the latest first freeze on record for Bismarck. The old record was October 14, 2008. The MJO has now completed its passage through Phase 5 at a very high amplitude. During the 1991-2020 period, there were 6 cases with passage through Phase 5 with at least three days at an amplitude of 1.500 or above: 1998, 2000, 2004, 2010, 2017, and 2020. There was a strong signal for the second half of October to wind up warmer than normal (83%) cases in the New York City area. However, that signal broke down to a 50-50 split for the first 10 days of November. That hints at possible timing for a pattern transition depending on the pattern evolution and changes in the teleconnections. Fall 2021 will likely be wetter to much wetter than normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region. Since 1869, there have been 9 August cases where New York City picked up 20.00" or more rainfall during the summer. Two thirds of those cases (and 4/5 of those with summer mean temperatures of 73.0° or above) had 17.00" or more fall precipitation in New York City. 2011 is probably the closest match in terms of precipitation and a nearly identical summer mean temperature. Mean fall precipitation for those 9 cases was 14.86". The median was 17.35". The 1991-2020 normal value is 12.27". Following very wet July-September periods, winter (December-February) precipitation has typically been near or below normal. The most recent exception was winter 2018-19. La Niña conditions have now developed. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around October 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.08°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.35°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through at least mid-winter. The SOI was +28.43 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.788 today. On October 14 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.416 (RMM). The October 13-adjusted amplitude was 1.686 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 94% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 61.9° (4.0° above normal). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted October 16, 2021 Share Posted October 16, 2021 11 minutes ago, Will - Rutgers said: they make pills for that now Implants also if you want movie stardom. As always …. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 17, 2021 Author Share Posted October 17, 2021 Raining decently at the moment. Probably end up with .25 to .5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted October 17, 2021 Share Posted October 17, 2021 The first line through at 6pm was a flop by me. Only looked menacing. A few more hours to go for the rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted October 17, 2021 Share Posted October 17, 2021 79° high today...currently 58° with 0.25" of post frontal rain so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted October 17, 2021 Share Posted October 17, 2021 10/16 EWR: 82 New Brnswck: 82 PHL: 82 TEB: 80 TTN: 80 BLM: 78 LGA: 77 ACY: 76 NTC: 76 JFK: 75 ISP: 74 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted October 17, 2021 Share Posted October 17, 2021 Picked up 0.34" of rain for the day yesterday. High for the day yesterday was 82 Current temp 55 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 17, 2021 Share Posted October 17, 2021 6 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: Some additional showers are likely, especially before midnight. Behind the frontal passage responsible for the showers and earlier thunderstorms, readings will return to near normal levels tomorrow and Monday. Warmer air will likely return near the middle of next week. Newark reached 70° for the 170th time this year. As a result, 2021 is now tied with 2007 for the 4th most days on record. Newark also reached 80° for the 115th time this year. That is the 2nd highest number of such days. At 11:59 pm yesterday, Bismarck saw the temperature dip to 32° under clear skies and a calm wind. That is the latest first freeze on record for Bismarck. The old record was October 14, 2008. The MJO has now completed its passage through Phase 5 at a very high amplitude. During the 1991-2020 period, there were 6 cases with passage through Phase 5 with at least three days at an amplitude of 1.500 or above: 1998, 2000, 2004, 2010, 2017, and 2020. There was a strong signal for the second half of October to wind up warmer than normal (83%) cases in the New York City area. However, that signal broke down to a 50-50 split for the first 10 days of November. That hints at possible timing for a pattern transition depending on the pattern evolution and changes in the teleconnections. Fall 2021 will likely be wetter to much wetter than normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region. Since 1869, there have been 9 August cases where New York City picked up 20.00" or more rainfall during the summer. Two thirds of those cases (and 4/5 of those with summer mean temperatures of 73.0° or above) had 17.00" or more fall precipitation in New York City. 2011 is probably the closest match in terms of precipitation and a nearly identical summer mean temperature. Mean fall precipitation for those 9 cases was 14.86". The median was 17.35". The 1991-2020 normal value is 12.27". Following very wet July-September periods, winter (December-February) precipitation has typically been near or below normal. The most recent exception was winter 2018-19. La Niña conditions have now developed. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around October 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.08°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.35°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through at least mid-winter. The SOI was +28.43 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.788 today. On October 14 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.416 (RMM). The October 13-adjusted amplitude was 1.686 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 94% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 61.9° (4.0° above normal). How close to the record for 70 and 80 degree days for Newark, Don? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 17, 2021 Share Posted October 17, 2021 7 hours ago, bluewave said: Gulf of Maine SSTs are the warmest on record for mid-October. https://mco.umaine.edu/gom_sst/ Thought we would have more tropical activity with all this warmth- what happened? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 17, 2021 Share Posted October 17, 2021 10 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: How close to the record for 70 and 80 degree days for Newark, Don? 3 days for each record. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 17, 2021 Share Posted October 17, 2021 30 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: 3 days for each record. Thanks, JFK isn't close to any of their records are they? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted October 17, 2021 Share Posted October 17, 2021 The next 8 days are averaging 58degs.(51/65), or Normal. Month to date is 65.8[+5.2]. Could be 62.7[+3.5] by the 25th. Over the next 15 days, highs of just 50 or 72 will trade places. Little rain till the 28th? Only reached 72 briefly here yesterday near Noon, on strong southerly sea breeze. Today: 63-67, w. wind, variable skies. 53*(83%RH) here at 6am. 60* at Noon. 62* at 2pm, then a quick shower and T never went passed the 62. 56* at 7pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted October 17, 2021 Share Posted October 17, 2021 It appears the overall quiet weather we have been experiencing since the remnants of Ida may continue for the next several days. There are signs things may become active right at the tail end of the month. We'll see. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted October 17, 2021 Share Posted October 17, 2021 Fall like temps up here in Berks this AM, currently 45 here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted October 17, 2021 Share Posted October 17, 2021 46. Beautiful morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 17, 2021 Share Posted October 17, 2021 Morning thoughts… It will partly to mostly sunny and noticeably cooler today. High temperatures will likely reach lower and middle 60s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 62° Newark: 66° Philadelphia: 65° Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 64.0°; 15-Year: 64.8° Newark: 30-Year: 65.5°; 15-Year: 66.7° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 66.7°; 15-Year: 67.4° Monday and Tuesday will be autumn-like days with readings mainly topping out in the upper 50s and lower 60s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 17, 2021 Share Posted October 17, 2021 5 hours ago, LibertyBell said: Thanks, JFK isn't close to any of their records are they? 70 or above: 5th place 75 or above: 1st with 126 days (old record: 124, 1971, 2001, and 2010) 80 or above: Tied for 12th 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 17, 2021 Share Posted October 17, 2021 58 minutes ago, bluewave said: The good news is that the West Coast needs the rain with the record Pacific Jet and one of the strongest -PDO patterns in years. Definitely the strongest -PDO/-PMM since 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
binbisso Posted October 17, 2021 Share Posted October 17, 2021 @donsutherland1 in your post above you have Nino 1.2 at slightly positive right now however when I look at tropical tidbits ocean analysis it's showing Nino 1.2 at -.8. Am I reading it wrong or is there another site with more accurate analysis? Edit. Nino 1.2 has also been negative for the last 6 weeks on tropical tidbits site Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 17, 2021 Share Posted October 17, 2021 58 right now here in Brooklyn Beautiful morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted October 17, 2021 Share Posted October 17, 2021 got down to 51 beauty! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 17, 2021 Share Posted October 17, 2021 48 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Definitely the strongest -PDO/-PMM since 2011 The Meteo-France seasonal shows what could happen with a strong -PDO and record warm pool east of New England. It has a -PNA and south based-AO/ -NAO to start winter. Warmer than average temperatures but hopefully some snow opportunities if the early blocking verifies. https://climate.copernicus.eu/seasonal-forecasts 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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