nyrangers1022 Posted October 15, 2021 Share Posted October 15, 2021 Loving this weather 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 15, 2021 Share Posted October 15, 2021 10 hours ago, LibertyBell said: didnt we have a big triple phaser that month? Yes, in late November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 15, 2021 Share Posted October 15, 2021 Really weak cold departures behind the front this weekend before we warm up again next week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 15, 2021 Share Posted October 15, 2021 October 15 and I'm still wearing shorts LoL 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 15, 2021 Share Posted October 15, 2021 79 here today for the high....one more day to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 15, 2021 Share Posted October 15, 2021 54 minutes ago, bluewave said: Really weak cold departures behind the front this weekend before we warm up again next week. Source region is from the pac which is mild. But yeah, this October is going to be a torch regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 15, 2021 Share Posted October 15, 2021 4 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Source region is from the pac which is mild. But yeah, this October is going to be a torch regardless. reminds me of the late Sept cooldown which in the end lasted 2-3 days and then it was back to above/well above 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted October 15, 2021 Share Posted October 15, 2021 26 minutes ago, MJO812 said: October 15 and I'm still wearing shorts LoL I am actually trying to decide if tomorrow is a beach day or if the south winds ahead of the front will be too much... today and yesterday were legitimate beach days any way you slice it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 15, 2021 Share Posted October 15, 2021 5 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: reminds me of the late Sept cooldown which in the end lasted 2-3 days and then it was back to above/well above I think the 80’s are over but we probably go back above normal for a bit in the middle of next week. The eps doesn’t scream warm to me after that but we shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 15, 2021 Share Posted October 15, 2021 Next weekend 10/24 looks chilly as the pna ridge goes poleward on the eps. The source region is better but it’s over a week out so lots of caution flags 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted October 15, 2021 Share Posted October 15, 2021 Water temperature at the harbor entrance buoy is nearly 70 again. lol . That just seems ridiculous for Oct 15. Wind Direction (WDIR): S ( 170 deg true ) Wind Speed (WSPD): 9.7 kts Wind Gust (GST): 11.7 kts Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.88 in Water Temperature (WTMP): 69.6 °F 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 15, 2021 Share Posted October 15, 2021 15 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Source region is from the pac which is mild. But yeah, this October is going to be a torch regardless. Our last -10 departure day was during the July 4th weekend. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=32&network=NYCLIMATE&station=NYC004&year=2021&var=avg&gddbase=50&gddceil=86&how=diff&cmap=jet&dpi=100&_fmt=png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 15, 2021 Share Posted October 15, 2021 40 minutes ago, MJO812 said: October 15 and I'm still wearing shorts LoL the only things I dont like about this are the mosquitoes and the rag weed. How much spraying do I need to do to get rid of both? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted October 15, 2021 Share Posted October 15, 2021 These are the average January temperatures since the year 2000: Caldwell N.J. 30.4 Islip N.Y. 31.5 Newark 32.8 Kennedy 33 Central Park 33.4 LaGuardia 34.1 3 things stick out to me. One, Newark is colder than Central Park, possibly because Central Park daytime highs are higher with no foliage. Two, the heat island affect. You would think Islip would be warmer than Central Park and Newark. Islip has more of an ocean influence but it apparently can't make up for the highly dense urbanization of the more inland areas like Newark and Central Park. Three, LaGuardia is a degree warmer than Kennedy even though Kennedy has more of an ocean influence which in the winter is a milder influence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted October 15, 2021 Share Posted October 15, 2021 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: October 15 and I'm still wearing shorts LoL I haven’t put them away at all! New climate aint all bad 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted October 15, 2021 Share Posted October 15, 2021 Currently 77 here after reaching 79 earlier this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted October 15, 2021 Share Posted October 15, 2021 79 today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 15, 2021 Share Posted October 15, 2021 Abundant sunshine pushed the mercury into the upper 70s and lower 80s across the region. The temperature at LaGuardia Airport hit 83°, which tied the daily record set in 1956. At Newark, the thermometer topped out at 84°. These will likely be the warmest readings until next spring. With today's warmth, Newark reached 70° for the 169th time this year. As a result, 2021 is now tied with 1946 and 1994 for the 5th most days on record. Today was also the 114th 80° day at Newark, tying 2021 with 1994 for 2nd highest number. Through this afternoon, Bismarck has yet to experience its first freeze of the season. As a result, 2021 is now poised to surpass the prior mark for the latest first freeze. That record is October 14, 2008, which was tied yesterday. Tomorrow will be another very warm day, but some showers and even a thundershower are possible as a strong cold front moves across the region. Behind the frontal passage, readings will return to near normal levels before warmer air returns near the middle of next week. The MJO has now completed its passage through Phase 5 at a very high amplitude. During the 1991-2020 period, there were 6 cases with passage through Phase 5 with at least three days at an amplitude of 1.500 or above: 1998, 2000, 2004, 2010, 2017, and 2020. There was a strong signal for the second half of October to wind up warmer than normal (83%) cases in the New York City area. However, that signal broke down to a 50-50 split for the first 10 days of November. That hints at possible timing for a pattern transition depending on the pattern evolution and changes in the teleconnections. Fall 2021 will likely be wetter to much wetter than normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region. Since 1869, there have been 9 August cases where New York City picked up 20.00" or more rainfall during the summer. Two thirds of those cases (and 4/5 of those with summer mean temperatures of 73.0° or above) had 17.00" or more fall precipitation in New York City. 2011 is probably the closest match in terms of precipitation and a nearly identical summer mean temperature. Mean fall precipitation for those 9 cases was 14.86". The median was 17.35". The 1991-2020 normal value is 12.27". Following very wet July-September periods, winter (December-February) precipitation has typically been near or below normal. The most recent exception was winter 2018-19. La Niña conditions have now developed. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around October 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.08°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.35°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through at least mid-winter. The SOI was +21.66 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.788 today. On October 13 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.689 (RMM). The October 12-adjusted amplitude was 1.936 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 92% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 61.8° (3.9° above normal). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted October 15, 2021 Share Posted October 15, 2021 78 today. Perfect 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted October 15, 2021 Share Posted October 15, 2021 2 hours ago, tdp146 said: I am actually trying to decide if tomorrow is a beach day or if the south winds ahead of the front will be too much... today and yesterday were legitimate beach days any way you slice it. Me too..thinking 9f going to Asbury What are everyones thoughts on timing for Jersey shore. Will we get pretty good sun til 3? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted October 15, 2021 Share Posted October 15, 2021 80 today. 82 yesterday. Fall has been very kind to us thus far. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 15, 2021 Share Posted October 15, 2021 2 hours ago, tdp146 said: Water temperature at the harbor entrance buoy is nearly 70 again. lol . That just seems ridiculous for Oct 15. Wind Direction (WDIR): S ( 170 deg true ) Wind Speed (WSPD): 9.7 kts Wind Gust (GST): 11.7 kts Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.88 in Water Temperature (WTMP): 69.6 °F Record SSTs to our east as the NW Atlantic is one of the fastest warming ocean regions in the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 15, 2021 Share Posted October 15, 2021 6 hours ago, nyrangers1022 said: Loving this weather let's just do some aerial spraying to kill all mosquitoes and ragweed and it's perfect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 15, 2021 Share Posted October 15, 2021 17 minutes ago, bluewave said: Record SSTs to our east as the NW Atlantic is one of the fastest warming ocean regions in the world. But how come no TC in the entire basin most of this month? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 15, 2021 Share Posted October 15, 2021 1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said: Abundant sunshine pushed the mercury into the upper 70s and lower 80s across the region. The temperature at LaGuardia Airport hit 83°, which tied the daily record set in 1956. At Newark, the thermometer topped out at 84°. These will likely be the warmest readings until next spring. With today's warmth, Newark reached 70° for the 169th time this year. As a result, 2021 is now tied with 1946 and 1994 for the 5th most days on record. Today was also the 114th 80° day at Newark, tying 2021 with 1994 for 2nd highest number. Through this afternoon, Bismarck has yet to experience its first freeze of the season. As a result, 2021 is now poised to surpass the prior mark for the latest first freeze. That record is October 14, 2008, which was tied yesterday. Tomorrow will be another very warm day, but some showers and even a thundershower are possible as a strong cold front moves across the region. Behind the frontal passage, readings will return to near normal levels before warmer air returns near the middle of next week. The MJO has now completed its passage through Phase 5 at a very high amplitude. During the 1991-2020 period, there were 6 cases with passage through Phase 5 with at least three days at an amplitude of 1.500 or above: 1998, 2000, 2004, 2010, 2017, and 2020. There was a strong signal for the second half of October to wind up warmer than normal (83%) cases in the New York City area. However, that signal broke down to a 50-50 split for the first 10 days of November. That hints at possible timing for a pattern transition depending on the pattern evolution and changes in the teleconnections. Fall 2021 will likely be wetter to much wetter than normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region. Since 1869, there have been 9 August cases where New York City picked up 20.00" or more rainfall during the summer. Two thirds of those cases (and 4/5 of those with summer mean temperatures of 73.0° or above) had 17.00" or more fall precipitation in New York City. 2011 is probably the closest match in terms of precipitation and a nearly identical summer mean temperature. Mean fall precipitation for those 9 cases was 14.86". The median was 17.35". The 1991-2020 normal value is 12.27". Following very wet July-September periods, winter (December-February) precipitation has typically been near or below normal. The most recent exception was winter 2018-19. La Niña conditions have now developed. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around October 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.08°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.35°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through at least mid-winter. The SOI was +21.66 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.788 today. On October 13 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.689 (RMM). The October 12-adjusted amplitude was 1.936 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 92% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 61.8° (3.9° above normal). You didnt mention JFK's high, it actually seemed hotter today than yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 15, 2021 Share Posted October 15, 2021 1 hour ago, Rjay said: 78 today. Perfect Yes perfect for A/C, best thing about A/C is that it reduces my allergies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 15, 2021 Share Posted October 15, 2021 2 hours ago, lee59 said: These are the average January temperatures since the year 2000: Caldwell N.J. 30.4 Islip N.Y. 31.5 Newark 32.8 Kennedy 33 Central Park 33.4 LaGuardia 34.1 3 things stick out to me. One, Newark is colder than Central Park, possibly because Central Park daytime highs are higher with no foliage. Two, the heat island affect. You would think Islip would be warmer than Central Park and Newark. Islip has more of an ocean influence but it apparently can't make up for the highly dense urbanization of the more inland areas like Newark and Central Park. Three, LaGuardia is a degree warmer than Kennedy even though Kennedy has more of an ocean influence which in the winter is a milder influence. uhm Kennedy and Newark radiate MUCH better than either NYC or LGA, I have seen JFK sometimes be 10 degrees colder for lows than LGA and 5-6 degreed colder than NYC, and I've been 5-6 degrees colder than JFK and I'm 4 miles to its SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 16, 2021 Share Posted October 16, 2021 27 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: uhm Kennedy and Newark radiate MUCH better than either NYC or LGA, I have seen JFK sometimes be 10 degrees colder for lows than LGA and 5-6 degreed colder than NYC, and I've been 5-6 degrees colder than JFK and I'm 4 miles to its SE. 130ft difference in elevation and a shaded probe... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted October 16, 2021 Share Posted October 16, 2021 It may never snow again. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 16, 2021 Share Posted October 16, 2021 1 hour ago, LibertyBell said: You didnt mention JFK's high, it actually seemed hotter today than yesterday JFK’s high was 77. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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