bluewave Posted October 14, 2021 Share Posted October 14, 2021 12 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Agree with this. Still very early obviously but I’m not so sure that the flip to a cold November narrative being pushed by some is going to work out this time around, there are some glaring hints right now that the major pattern change to cold in November idea may be in some trouble We’ll be getting some hints over the next few weeks as to how November will start. The one feature models have been showing is a continuation of the Canadian warmth. If this turns out to be the case, then maybe a milder La Niña November like 2016 will be possible.The 2017 November La Niña was colder in Canada and the Northeast. November 1-8 long range forecast La Niña November 2016 La Niña November 2017 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 14, 2021 Share Posted October 14, 2021 2 minutes ago, bluewave said: We’ll be getting some hints over the next few weeks as to how November will start. The one feature models have been showing is a continuation of the Canadian warmth. If this turns out to be the case, then maybe a milder La Niña November like 2016 will be possible.The 2017 November La Niña was colder in Canada and the Northeast. November 1-8 long range forecast La Niña November 2016 La Niña November 2017 Yes. And there in lies the problem….the upper level strato warming has to downwell into the troposphere or it’s useless. I’m not saying that’s what is going to happen but if it doesn’t, the flip to a cold November idea is going to have serious problems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 14, 2021 Share Posted October 14, 2021 just from a rudimentary look there's a pretty high correlation with november blocking and snowier outcomes in la ninas here 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 15, 2021 Share Posted October 15, 2021 34 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Yes. And there in lies the problem….the upper level strato warming has to downwell into the troposphere or it’s useless. I’m not saying that’s what is going to happen but if it doesn’t, the flip to a cold November idea is going to have serious problems We haven’t had a really cold La Niña November over the last decade. The 4 coupled La Niña years were 2017, 2016, 2011, and 2010. The coldest November was 2019 and it was neutral. November NY climate division 4 202011 49.6°F 120 3.7°F 201911 42.3°F 29 -3.6°F 201811 43.6°F 55 -2.3°F 201711 45.6°F 85 -0.3°F 201611 48.2°F 115 2.3°F 201511 50.2°F 126 4.3°F 201411 43.8°F 58 -2.1°F 201311 43.7°F 56 -2.2°F 201211 42.8°F 39 -3.1°F 201111 49.8°F 124 3.9°F 201011 46.2°F 96 0.3°F . 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 15, 2021 Share Posted October 15, 2021 last November the AO/NAO were very positive...that changed in December which led to a big storm...1995-96 was neg thru dec...Nov 2007 had a neg ao but pos nao... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 15, 2021 Share Posted October 15, 2021 Gfs is toying with a big storm sometime at the end of this month 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Claus Posted October 15, 2021 Share Posted October 15, 2021 80s tomorrow and then Saturday before the frontal passage, and the frontal passage still only gets us into the mid 60s. i try not to confound immediate weather with climate change but jesus christ this is a bizarre October 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 15, 2021 Share Posted October 15, 2021 imagine a high of 46 Climatological Data for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - October 2009Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Temperature HDD CDD Precipitation New Snow Snow Depth Maximum Minimum Average Departure Sum 1967 1478 - - 292 6 5.43 0.0 - Average 63.5 47.7 55.6 -1.9 - - - - 0.0 Normal 66.0 49.0 57.5 - 253 21 3.79 0.2 - 2009-10-01 58 45 51.5 -11.8 13 0 0.00 0.0 0 2009-10-02 66 43 54.5 -8.4 10 0 0.04 0.0 0 2009-10-03 71 65 68.0 5.5 0 3 0.12 0.0 0 2009-10-04 77 57 67.0 4.9 0 2 0.00 0.0 0 2009-10-05 71 52 61.5 -0.2 3 0 0.00 0.0 0 2009-10-06 69 48 58.5 -2.8 6 0 T 0.0 0 2009-10-07 73 57 65.0 4.1 0 0 0.05 0.0 0 2009-10-08 69 51 60.0 -0.5 5 0 0.00 0.0 0 2009-10-09 73 59 66.0 5.9 0 1 0.02 0.0 0 2009-10-10 67 50 58.5 -1.2 6 0 T 0.0 0 2009-10-11 66 43 54.5 -4.8 10 0 0.00 0.0 0 2009-10-12 54 42 48.0 -10.9 17 0 0.00 0.0 0 2009-10-13 68 46 57.0 -1.5 8 0 0.00 0.0 0 2009-10-14 54 38 46.0 -12.1 19 0 0.00 0.0 0 2009-10-15 47 39 43.0 -14.8 22 0 0.62 0.0 0 2009-10-16 46 38 42.0 -15.4 23 0 0.03 0.0 0 2009-10-17 48 42 45.0 -12.0 20 0 0.11 0.0 0 2009-10-18 47 42 44.5 -12.1 20 0 0.24 0.0 0 2009-10-19 59 37 48.0 -8.3 17 0 0.00 0.0 0 2009-10-20 69 38 53.5 -2.4 11 0 0.00 0.0 0 2009-10-21 70 46 58.0 2.4 7 0 0.00 0.0 0 2009-10-22 77 50 63.5 8.3 1 0 0.00 0.0 0 2009-10-23 63 51 57.0 2.2 8 0 0.36 0.0 0 2009-10-24 72 55 63.5 9.0 1 0 1.83 0.0 0 2009-10-25 65 50 57.5 3.4 7 0 0.00 0.0 0 2009-10-26 61 43 52.0 -1.8 13 0 0.00 0.0 0 2009-10-27 57 45 51.0 -2.4 14 0 0.78 0.0 0 2009-10-28 58 51 54.5 1.4 10 0 1.09 0.0 0 2009-10-29 59 49 54.0 1.2 11 0 0.00 0.0 0 2009-10-30 59 51 55.0 2.6 10 0 0.00 0.0 0 2009-10-31 74 55 64.5 12.4 0 0 0.14 0.0 0 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted October 15, 2021 Share Posted October 15, 2021 24 minutes ago, forkyfork said: imagine a high of 46 Do you have stats from the 1400s though? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 15, 2021 Share Posted October 15, 2021 7 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: Latest: November 1, 1950. wow thats amazing- do you remember a very late 86 degrees in late October 1995 also (after October 20th?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 15, 2021 Share Posted October 15, 2021 2 hours ago, forkyfork said: imagine a high of 46 Climatological Data for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - October 2009Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Temperature HDD CDD Precipitation New Snow Snow Depth Maximum Minimum Average Departure Sum 1967 1478 - - 292 6 5.43 0.0 - Average 63.5 47.7 55.6 -1.9 - - - - 0.0 Normal 66.0 49.0 57.5 - 253 21 3.79 0.2 - 2009-10-01 58 45 51.5 -11.8 13 0 0.00 0.0 0 2009-10-02 66 43 54.5 -8.4 10 0 0.04 0.0 0 2009-10-03 71 65 68.0 5.5 0 3 0.12 0.0 0 2009-10-04 77 57 67.0 4.9 0 2 0.00 0.0 0 2009-10-05 71 52 61.5 -0.2 3 0 0.00 0.0 0 2009-10-06 69 48 58.5 -2.8 6 0 T 0.0 0 2009-10-07 73 57 65.0 4.1 0 0 0.05 0.0 0 2009-10-08 69 51 60.0 -0.5 5 0 0.00 0.0 0 2009-10-09 73 59 66.0 5.9 0 1 0.02 0.0 0 2009-10-10 67 50 58.5 -1.2 6 0 T 0.0 0 2009-10-11 66 43 54.5 -4.8 10 0 0.00 0.0 0 2009-10-12 54 42 48.0 -10.9 17 0 0.00 0.0 0 2009-10-13 68 46 57.0 -1.5 8 0 0.00 0.0 0 2009-10-14 54 38 46.0 -12.1 19 0 0.00 0.0 0 2009-10-15 47 39 43.0 -14.8 22 0 0.62 0.0 0 2009-10-16 46 38 42.0 -15.4 23 0 0.03 0.0 0 2009-10-17 48 42 45.0 -12.0 20 0 0.11 0.0 0 2009-10-18 47 42 44.5 -12.1 20 0 0.24 0.0 0 2009-10-19 59 37 48.0 -8.3 17 0 0.00 0.0 0 2009-10-20 69 38 53.5 -2.4 11 0 0.00 0.0 0 2009-10-21 70 46 58.0 2.4 7 0 0.00 0.0 0 2009-10-22 77 50 63.5 8.3 1 0 0.00 0.0 0 2009-10-23 63 51 57.0 2.2 8 0 0.36 0.0 0 2009-10-24 72 55 63.5 9.0 1 0 1.83 0.0 0 2009-10-25 65 50 57.5 3.4 7 0 0.00 0.0 0 2009-10-26 61 43 52.0 -1.8 13 0 0.00 0.0 0 2009-10-27 57 45 51.0 -2.4 14 0 0.78 0.0 0 2009-10-28 58 51 54.5 1.4 10 0 1.09 0.0 0 2009-10-29 59 49 54.0 1.2 11 0 0.00 0.0 0 2009-10-30 59 51 55.0 2.6 10 0 0.00 0.0 0 2009-10-31 74 55 64.5 12.4 0 0 0.14 0.0 0 I hate that-- this extended warm summer is really enjoyable outside of the mosquitoes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 15, 2021 Share Posted October 15, 2021 5 hours ago, MJO812 said: Gfs is toying with a big storm sometime at the end of this month end of October storms have a history of being, well, historic..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 15, 2021 Share Posted October 15, 2021 7 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: Latest: November 1, 1950. didnt we have a big triple phaser that month? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 15, 2021 Share Posted October 15, 2021 7 hours ago, Tatamy said: Belle caused hundreds of thousands of power outages across LI. eh those are usually minor, we get those now with a wind gust lol. Used to it, everyone needs to have generators. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 15, 2021 Share Posted October 15, 2021 7 hours ago, uncle W said: staten island can be 5-10 degrees colder than Central Park under the right conditions... so can the area around JFK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 15, 2021 Share Posted October 15, 2021 8 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: Newark: 82 JFK: 80 LGA: 79 NYC: 76 I love these downslope days! Wish we had more of them during the summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted October 15, 2021 Share Posted October 15, 2021 Looked over some of the 00z-06z/15 models including some of the parameters that SPC and NWS review for svr prediction and no thread at this time, per a well summarized SPC D2 outlook. Marginal (so far) for svr, but gusts/a gust front will develop for our subforum between 3P-8P, west-east, with and ahead of the line of convection.. 45 MPH gusts seem likely but 55+ MPH much less likely. Will rereview Saturday morning for a possible short lead-time thread. The SPC D2 outlook in words below... Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Fri Oct 15 2021 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.... ...SUMMARY... Potential for a few wind gusts near severe levels will exist across portions of the Northeast and vicinity on Saturday. ...Synopsis... A seasonably strong upper trough will shift quickly across the eastern U.S. Saturday, with ridging to prevail upstream across the remainder of the country. At the surface, a sharp cold front -- progged to lie near or just east of the Appalachian crest at the start of the day -- clearing the Middle and Southern Atlantic Coasts by evening. By Sunday morning, the front will likely have moved entirely offshore, with the exception of South Florida and the Keys. ...Portions of the Mid-Atlantic region and into New England... It remains apparent that only minimal pre-frontal instability will be available across northeastern portions of the U.S. ahead of the approaching storm system, and as such, expectations are that potential for severe-caliber wind gusts will remain minimal/very localized. As strong ascent spreads across the area, focused along the front, showers and low-topped thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing, and should increase somewhat diurnally as what afternoon bolstering of CAPE will be possible, reaches its maximum. Strong flow aloft will support fast storm motions, and as such, gusty winds will be likely with the low-topped bands of convection. However, given the weak CAPE, degree of convective augmentation of suggests that most gusts should remain in the 35 to 45 MPH range. Any severe risk ongoing through the afternoon should diminish into early evening, due to diurnal stabilization effects. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 15, 2021 Share Posted October 15, 2021 Morning thoughts… It will be partly cloudy and very warm. High temperatures will likely reach the upper 70s and lower 80s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 76° Newark: 82° Philadelphia: 81° Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 64.7°; 15-Year: 65.6° Newark: 30-Year: 66.3°; 15-Year: 67.5° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 67.5°; 15-Year: 68.3° Saturday will be another very warm day. However, a strong cold could bring a shower or thundershower as it moves across the region. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 15, 2021 Share Posted October 15, 2021 10 hours ago, bluewave said: We haven’t had a really cold La Niña November over the last decade. The 4 coupled La Niña years were 2017, 2016, 2011, and 2010. The coldest November was 2019 and it was neutral. November NY climate division 4 202011 49.6°F 120 3.7°F 201911 42.3°F 29 -3.6°F 201811 43.6°F 55 -2.3°F 201711 45.6°F 85 -0.3°F 201611 48.2°F 115 2.3°F 201511 50.2°F 126 4.3°F 201411 43.8°F 58 -2.1°F 201311 43.7°F 56 -2.2°F 201211 42.8°F 39 -3.1°F 201111 49.8°F 124 3.9°F 201011 46.2°F 96 0.3°F . How did the January’s of those winters go? Just looking at this strong signal for October, it’s suggestive of ++EPO with deep cold over Alaska come January: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted October 15, 2021 Share Posted October 15, 2021 The next 8 days are averaging 63degs.(56/70), or +5. Month to date is 65.5[+4.5]. Could be 64.6[+4.7] by the 23rd. The only 5-Day period averaging even near Normal, seems centered on the 26th. now. Reached 80 here yesterday. Today: 76-80, wind n. to w. to s., sun/clouds. 68*(75%RH) here at 6am. 67* at 7am. 72* at Noon. Only reached 75* due to slight, but persistent sea breeze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 15, 2021 Share Posted October 15, 2021 With a low of 63°, Newark just set the record for most 60°or warmer minimums in October. The low of 58° at HPN puts it 1 day away from the October 55° or warmer minimum record. FWN also set their new 54° minimum or warmer days record for October. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of OctClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Number of Days Min Temperature >= 60 Missing Count 1 2021 12 16 2 2017 11 0 1971 11 0 1959 11 0 3 2007 10 0 1954 10 0 Time Series Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY - Month of OctClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Number of Days Min Temperature >= 55 Missing Count 1 1971 13 0 2 2017 12 0 - 2007 12 0 2021 12 17 3 2018 11 0 - 1954 11 0 Time Series Summary for SUSSEX AIRPORT, NJ - Month of OctClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Number of Days Min Temperature >= 54 Missing Count 1 2021 11 16 2 2007 10 0 3 2017 8 0 4 2018 7 0 - 2012 7 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted October 15, 2021 Share Posted October 15, 2021 61*(90%RH) as of 8:45AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 15, 2021 Share Posted October 15, 2021 Dry pattern continues-models now have .30 or less for most areas Saturday night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted October 15, 2021 Share Posted October 15, 2021 22 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Dry pattern continues-models now have .30 or less for most areas Saturday night Seems like the weather Gods are giving the area a break after 3 rainy ass months Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 15, 2021 Share Posted October 15, 2021 1 minute ago, dmillz25 said: Seems like the weather Gods are giving the area a break after 3 rainy ass months I've had an inch or so since the 9/1 Ida floods.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted October 15, 2021 Share Posted October 15, 2021 3 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: I've had an inch or so since the 9/1 Ida floods.... 4.72" here since Ida 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 15, 2021 Share Posted October 15, 2021 16 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said: 4.72" here since Ida classic N and W wetter than the shoreline areas where the showers die out as they hit the marine air. Saturday night's event looks to be more of the same. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted October 15, 2021 Share Posted October 15, 2021 13 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: classic N and W wetter than the shoreline areas where the showers die out as they hit the marine air. Saturday night's event looks to be more of the same. I'm more than willing to share... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 15, 2021 Share Posted October 15, 2021 10 hours ago, Rjay said: Do you have stats from the 1400s though? tree rings and sediments... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted October 15, 2021 Share Posted October 15, 2021 1 hour ago, uncle W said: tree rings and sediments... I bought a house out in Sayville in 1995. Once we moved in we decided to have 10+ large trees removed. These were large Oaks. I counted the rings on all of them and the larger ones all dated to 1939. The island was sparsely populated then however there is no doubt that the destruction to trees in the area had to have been catastrophic following 9/21/1938. Tree rings can tell you a lot. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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