KEITH L.I Posted September 30, 2021 Share Posted September 30, 2021 2 hours ago, SACRUS said: We will push 80 in the warmer spots Sat, if enough sun on Sunday (10/3) it will be low 80s (EWR record is 85). More clouds and Mon (10/4) as upper low pushes west and hung up flow overall. Should see more persistent onshore to more humid S/SE flow by the middle/end of next week Thu (10/7) - Sat (10/9). Beyond there ridge builds into the east and warmer mid month. Not sure we see more 80s in the period 10/10 - 10/20 in the warm spots but chances may be increasing. Very La NIna October, at least for the first part with the SE Ridge. Euro monthly's had a warm September and October followed by cooling in November and a cold December. Hope that pans out 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted September 30, 2021 Share Posted September 30, 2021 thank goodness we had a weak war this summer or so many of these cape verde storms would have made it all the way across.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 30, 2021 Share Posted September 30, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted September 30, 2021 Share Posted September 30, 2021 The Euro is pretty wet for next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 30, 2021 Share Posted September 30, 2021 6 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: The Euro is pretty wet for next week. we're due for a wet week-been really dry since the big 9/1 Ida deluge. Let's see if it actually happens though. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 30, 2021 Share Posted September 30, 2021 28 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: we're due for a wet week-been really dry since the big 9/1 Ida deluge. Let's see if it actually happens though. Connection with tropical moisture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 30, 2021 Share Posted September 30, 2021 5 hours ago, JerseyWx said: Follows the trend of recent years where we get some brief cooldowns in between the warmth like Bluewave mentioned above. Yeah, October 1st may be our coolest temperature departures for a while. EPS Oct 4-11 Oct 11-18 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted September 30, 2021 Share Posted September 30, 2021 1 hour ago, Brian5671 said: we're due for a wet week-been really dry since the big 9/1 Ida deluge. Let's see if it actually happens though. ny reservoir levels are 18% above normal soil saturation is very wet in the tri state area west and north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 1, 2021 Share Posted October 1, 2021 Quite the temp gradient on Monday on the GFS--inches of rain for Central NE but nothing for most of us verbatim 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted October 1, 2021 Share Posted October 1, 2021 Current temp is down to 48 here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted October 1, 2021 Share Posted October 1, 2021 50 here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 1, 2021 Share Posted October 1, 2021 today is nothing like the 39 degrees on this date in 1992 or the 36 on this date in 1947... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted October 1, 2021 Share Posted October 1, 2021 September ended at 70.3[+1.1]. Second half was +2.2, since we were Normal after 15 days. btw: My 1968 NYC Almanac has the 30-Year Normal att. as 68.5 for September. So up 0.7 in 60 years, 1945-2005 midpoints. Reached 67* here yesterday. The first 8 days of October are averaging 69degs.(62/77), or +5. 53*(76%RH) here at 6am. 60* at 11am. 68* at 3pm. Reached 70* at 4:30pm. Today: 67-70,wind nw. to w., m. sunny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted October 1, 2021 Share Posted October 1, 2021 46 here this morning. First 40s of the season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted October 1, 2021 Share Posted October 1, 2021 42.6 in Muttontown & 45.8 in Syosset this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted October 1, 2021 Share Posted October 1, 2021 49 at FRG 49 at ISP 39 at FOX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted October 1, 2021 Share Posted October 1, 2021 41 for the low IMBY 39 at KMGJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 1, 2021 Share Posted October 1, 2021 Morning thoughts... October 2021 got off to a crisp start. Low temperatures included: Allentown: 42° Bridgeport: 50° Danbury: 42° Islip: 49° New York City: 51° Newark: 52° Philadelphia: 50° Westhampton: 37° White Plains: 45° The crisp start masks what will very likely be October 2021's true nature. The month will very likely be warmer to much warmer than normal. New York City could finish with a monthly mean temperature of 60° or above. Today will be partly to mostly sunny and continued cool. Temperatures will likely reach the upper 60s and lower 70s across much of the region. Likely high temperatures include: New York City (Central Park): 68° Newark: 72° Philadelphia: 72° Warmer air will arrive for the weekend. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 70.2°; 15-Year: 71.5° Newark: 30-Year: 71.8°; 15-Year: 73.3° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 73.0°; 15-Year: 74.3° 30-Day Verification: New York City (Central Park): Average daily forecast: 76.3° Average temperature: 76.3° Average error: 1.1° Newark: Average daily forecast: 80.4° Average temperature: 80.2° Average error: 0.9° Philadelphia: Average daily forecast: 79.8° Average temperature: 80.1° Average error: 1.1° Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted October 1, 2021 Share Posted October 1, 2021 55 minutes ago, Rjay said: 50 at FRG 51 at ISP 39 at FOX ISP hit 49. 47 here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted October 1, 2021 Share Posted October 1, 2021 11 minutes ago, psv88 said: ISP hit 49. 47 here So did FRG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted October 1, 2021 Share Posted October 1, 2021 Low of 50 here. I don’t like this one bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 1, 2021 Share Posted October 1, 2021 1 hour ago, CIK62 said: September ended at 70.3[+1.1]. Second half was +2.2, since we were Normal after 15 days. btw: My 1968 NYC Almanac has the 30-Year Normal att. as 68.5 for September. So up 0.7 in 60 years, 1945-2005 midpoints. Reached 67* here yesterday. The first 8 days of October are averaging 69degs.(62/77), or +5. 53*(76%RH) here at 6am. Today: 67-70,wind nw. to w., m. sunny. The September warming has accelerated in recent years. The 2000-21 mean is 69.6. The 2010-21 mean is 70.4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 1, 2021 Share Posted October 1, 2021 5 minutes ago, Cfa said: Low of 50 here. I don’t like this one bit. Welcome to Autumn 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 1, 2021 Share Posted October 1, 2021 56 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 1, 2021 Share Posted October 1, 2021 Only the third time that ISP had the first 40s of the season as late as October. The other two years were 2015 and 2018. The low of 53 before midnight yesterday was also the warmest September monthly minimum temperature. First/Last Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NYEach section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Last Value First Value Difference 2018 06-12 (2018) 48 10-12 (2018) 49 121 2015 05-23 (2015) 48 10-02 (2015) 49 131 2003 06-03 (2003) 48 09-30 (2003) 45 118 2002 06-08 (2002) 46 09-29 (2002) 49 112 1970 05-31 (1970) 48 09-29 (1970) 46 120 1980 06-12 (1980) 47 09-27 (1980) 48 106 2016 05-23 (2016) 49 09-25 (2016) 48 124 2005 05-28 (2005) 48 09-25 (2005) 49 119 1987 06-07 (1987) 49 09-25 (1987) 42 109 2014 06-01 (2014) 49 09-23 (2014) 45 113 1998 06-10 (1998) 47 09-23 (1998) 44 104 1974 05-28 (1974) 42 09-23 (1974) 46 117 1976 06-13 (1976) 49 09-22 (1976) 46 100 2008 05-30 (2008) 47 09-21 (2008) 48 113 1981 06-08 (1981) 47 09-21 (1981) 47 104 2004 05-30 (2004) 41 09-20 (2004) 49 112 Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Month of SepClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Lowest Min Temperature Missing Count 1 2021 53 0 2 2015 52 0 3 2018 51 0 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted October 1, 2021 Share Posted October 1, 2021 45; crisp start. Colors slowly starting out this way. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted October 1, 2021 Share Posted October 1, 2021 6 minutes ago, bluewave said: Only the third time that ISP had the first 40s of the season as late as October. The other two years were 2015 and 2018. The low of 53 before midnight yesterday was also the warmest September monthly minimum temperature. First/Last Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NYEach section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Last Value First Value Difference 2018 06-12 (2018) 48 10-12 (2018) 49 121 2015 05-23 (2015) 48 10-02 (2015) 49 131 2003 06-03 (2003) 48 09-30 (2003) 45 118 2002 06-08 (2002) 46 09-29 (2002) 49 112 1970 05-31 (1970) 48 09-29 (1970) 46 120 1980 06-12 (1980) 47 09-27 (1980) 48 106 2016 05-23 (2016) 49 09-25 (2016) 48 124 2005 05-28 (2005) 48 09-25 (2005) 49 119 1987 06-07 (1987) 49 09-25 (1987) 42 109 2014 06-01 (2014) 49 09-23 (2014) 45 113 1998 06-10 (1998) 47 09-23 (1998) 44 104 1974 05-28 (1974) 42 09-23 (1974) 46 117 1976 06-13 (1976) 49 09-22 (1976) 46 100 2008 05-30 (2008) 47 09-21 (2008) 48 113 1981 06-08 (1981) 47 09-21 (1981) 47 104 2004 05-30 (2004) 41 09-20 (2004) 49 112 Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Month of SepClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Lowest Min Temperature Missing Count 1 2021 53 0 2 2015 52 0 3 2018 51 0 Yea no 40s in September here which I can’t remember for my location before 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted October 1, 2021 Share Posted October 1, 2021 Little early to throw in the towel on October guys. What is it 9 hours old? Might I add, with glee, that forecasts of extreme warmth through a colder month on this sub forum have been notoriously wrong and usually covered up with “the weeklies changed overnight” posts. 54F at 9am. 47F in SLC at 7 am✈️ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted October 1, 2021 Share Posted October 1, 2021 24 minutes ago, psv88 said: Yea no 40s in September here which I can’t remember for my location before Good morning psv88. It seems, as per the present course, our grown grandchildren may be posting the same about October. As always …. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 1, 2021 Share Posted October 1, 2021 I don't see any 40s going into mid October. Should easily be the hottest October on record Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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