October 2021

[KEITH L.I]

40 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It will all come down to how much blocking we get. Unfortunately, the seasonal models have very little skill at forecasting the correct phase of the AO and NAO. When the ENSO is coupled, they do much better with the North Pacific pattern. 
 

Darker oranges more skill

 

 

Since 2010, the stronger La Ninas had more snow. During other periods, the weaker years had more snow. So there may not be much correlation between snowfall and La Niña strength. It really comes down to how much blocking we get

 

Cold phase years have had some great winters...66-67,95-96, 10-11 and some horrible ones..It's all about blocking. The one thing that is certain..strong el nino's are most part very warm, but that doesn't mean you can't get a big snowfall..Feb 83 and Jan 16. It's all timing. Also looking at the monthly's and seasonal forecasts take them with a grain of salt

[thunderbolt]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

It will all come down to how much blocking we get. Unfortunately, the seasonal models have very little skill at forecasting the correct phase of the AO and NAO. When the ENSO is coupled, they do much better with the North Pacific pattern. 
 

Darker oranges more skill

 

 

Since 2010, the stronger La Ninas had more snow. During other periods, the weaker years had more snow. So there may not be much correlation between snowfall and La Niña strength. It really comes down to how much blocking we get

 

I’m Starting to keep my eye on the stratosphere at this present time some of the models that I saw have The stratosphere  relatively week until roughly the beginning of December and then have it strengthening which if it does come to fruition would not be good for blocking down the road if the PNA is negative you could keep your shorts out in the middle of January

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, KEITH L.I said:

Cold phase years have had some great winters...66-67,95-96, 10-11 and some horrible ones..It's all about blocking. The one thing that is certain..strong el nino's are most part very warm, but that doesn't mean you can't get a big snowfall..Feb 83 and Jan 16. It's all timing. Also looking at the monthly's and seasonal forecasts take them with a grain of salt

With the record blocking patterns since 2002-2003, we have seen an unprecedented number of seasons when stations from around Newark out to Eastern LI recorded 40” or more of snow. This dramatic increase in snowfall has occurred during a steady increase in winter temperatures. Our older winters with 40”+ peak snowfall amounts used to occur with a NYC average temperature around 32°. But many recent 40”+ seasons featured a NYC average DJF temperature in the 35°-40° range. So this is a new combination of warmth and heavy snow for our area.
 

Seasons since 1950 when at least one station from Newark to Eastern LI recorded 40”+ and the NYC DJF average temperature. 35°+ average temperature seasons bolded

 

20-21….36.1

17-18….36.2

16-17….39.3

15-16….41.0

14-15…31.4

13-14…32.9

12-13…36.8

10-11….32.8

09-10…33.8

08-09…34.2

05-06…37.3

04-05…35.4

03-04…32.4

02-03…31.2

00-01….33.5

95-96…32.2

93-94…31.2

86-87….34.8

77-78….30.8

68-69….32.9

66-67….34.1

63-64…33.2

60-61….31.7

57-58…33.2

55-56…32.8

 

[SnoSki14]

5 hours ago, bluewave said:

The Pacific looks like it will be too hostile to allow more than a few days of slightly below normal temperatures around the 18-20th. Notice the strong +EPO/-PNA continuing as the ridge pulls back a little around that time. But a another amplification a few days later pushes the ridge closer to the Northeast again.

 

 

MJO changes, dropping NAO & rising PNA makes me think this will adjust as we get closer. 

I'm already seeing that happen with EPS compared to a couple days ago

[Stormlover74]

Ewr makes it to 70 even on a dreary onshore flow day

[snowman19]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

It will all come down to how much blocking we get. Unfortunately, the seasonal models have very little skill at forecasting the correct phase of the AO and NAO. When the ENSO is coupled, they do much better with the North Pacific pattern. 
 

Darker oranges more skill

 

 

Since 2010, the stronger La Ninas had more snow. During other periods, the weaker years had more snow. So there may not be much correlation between snowfall and La Niña strength. It really comes down to how much blocking we get

 

Yes, it will all come down to NAO/AO this winter IMO. If there is good blocking in those domains, then it will be very likely we end up with above normal snowfall, even with a hostile PAC, temps may not be colder than normal in that hostile PAC scenario but they don’t really have to be below normal to get snow once you get solidly into winter. My guess is a hostile PAC/ENSO this winter. We shall see

[CIK62]

Meanwhile,  I have already reached 73 today-----after only getting to 74 yesterday and having all main stations going beyond that.

 

[bluewave]

19 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Yes, it will all come down to NAO/AO this winter IMO. If there is good blocking in those domains, then it will be very likely we end up with above normal snowfall, even with a hostile PAC, temps may not be colder than normal in that hostile PAC scenario but they don’t really have to be below normal to get snow once you get solidly into winter. My guess is a hostile PAC/ENSO this winter. We shall see

The current October MJO 5 matches the snowier La Niña years since 2000 with -AO and -NAO intervals. The only two coupled La Niña  seasons since 2000 with below average snow and blocking were 2007-2008 and 2011-2012. The Octobers before those winters had a MJO 1-2 pattern.That being said, we can’t  be sure this will continue to work for this winter. 

 

La Niña October MJO 5 before snowy seasons with blocking 

This year makes the list

La Niña October MJO 1-2 composite before below normal snowfall and no blocking

 

 

[George001]

4 hours ago, LoboLeader1 said:

Correct me if I'm wrong, but a strong La Nina would mean less snow here in the northeast this upcoming winter.

In the mid Atlantic yes, NYC north no. The La Niña= bad thing is a myth, the two worst Enso states for snow are moderate and strong El Niño’s. You have roughly the same snowfall average in a strong la nina and enso neutral. I live in eastern mass and I am extremely excited about the increase in strength of the La Niña when combined with the sst profile.

[LoboLeader1]

2 hours ago, George001 said:

In the mid Atlantic yes, NYC north no. The La Niña= bad thing is a myth, the two worst Enso states for snow are moderate and strong El Niño’s. You have roughly the same snowfall average in a strong la nina and enso neutral. I live in eastern mass and I am extremely excited about the increase in strength of the La Niña when combined with the sst profile.

Appreciate your input, thanks. 

[dWave]

Saw some minor/nuisance coastal flooding earlier at high tide along the Sound btwn Pelham bay, Bronx and New Rochelle on a howling ENE wind

[donsutherland1]

1 minute ago, dWave said:

Saw some minor/nuisance coastal flooding earlier at high tide along the Sound btwn Pelham bay, Bronx and New Rochelle on a howling ENE wind

Same in Mamaroneck.

[donsutherland1]

Amidst cloudy skies and a stiff breeze that held temperatures in the middle 60s, the New York Botanical Garden is continuing its autumn transition.

[etudiant]

26 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Amidst cloudy skies and a stiff breeze that held temperatures in the middle 60s, the New York Botanical Garden is continuing its autumn transition.

Thank you, Don, for these reminders that fall is wonderful, beautiful flowers and wonderful insects, birds and mammals.

[donsutherland1]

Much of the region experienced a cool breeze that capped temperatures in the 60s. However, Newark reached 70° for the 164th time this year. As a result, 2021 is ranked in 13th place.

Tomorrow will be another mostly cloudy and cool day. Temperatures will likely top out in the middle and upper 60s. Some showers and periods of rain are possible. Aside from the Jersey Shore and Long Island, most of the region should see 0.25" or less total rainfall. Warmer air will start to return on Monday. Overall, the generally warm regime will continue into at least mid-month.

Fall 2021 will likely be wetter to much wetter than normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region. Since 1869, there have been 9 August cases where New York City picked up 20.00" or more rainfall during the summer. Two thirds of those cases (and 4/5 of those with summer mean temperatures of 73.0° or above) had 17.00" or more fall precipitation in New York City. 2011 is probably the closest match in terms of precipitation and a nearly identical summer mean temperature. Mean fall precipitation for those 9 cases was 14.86". The median was 17.35". The 1991-2020 normal value is 12.27".

Following very wet July-September periods, winter (December-February) precipitation has typically been near or below normal. The most recent exception was winter 2018-19.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was 0.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.0°C for the week centered around September 29. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.07°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.28°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely yield to La Niña conditions later this month.

The SOI was +2.51 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.213 today.

On October 7 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 2.239 (RMM). The October 6-adjusted amplitude was 2.145 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 84% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 62.0° (4.1° above normal).

 

[Roger Smith]

The warmest October on record in most parts of the northeastern US was either 1947 or 1963, both come out very close to tied in many cases. Epic snowstorms followed these warm Octobers (Dec 26, 1947 and Jan 1964). Another very warm October was 1971, and Feb 1972 was quite a wintry month. So this autumn warmth is not necessarily a bad sign for the coming winter. Cold Octobers have often been followed by rather bland winters.

I posted elsewhere that I think this might be a pretty good winter in the northeastern US. The bar is rather low after the last few, of course, although NYC has managed to wring out some decent totals when DCA and BOS failed to do so. 

It has been unusually cold here in the western interior regions since a warm spell in late September ended. SEA has an anomaly of -4 F to this point, and where I live we have seen snow twice already, and had a sharp frost on two occasions. Hopefully this will be a cold trough that does not anchor itself here but shows some progressive tendencies. 

I think that report on mild temperatures in the central arctic has to be a good indicator too. That is usually correlated with cold in the western arctic moving southeast around an upper low that needs to form near northern Hudson Bay to get the mild air into that region (it seldom comes from the south or southwest, usually from the east up that way from the open waters of Baffin Bay). 

[doncat]

Running a +3.5° departure thru first nine days....just 0.22" rain.

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging 68degs.(63/73), or +8.

Month to date is  65.3[+3.4].        Could be  66.6[+5.6] by the 18th.

GFS is dry after sprinkles this AM, for 10 days, EURO has > 1.0" over the period.    No more 70's starting the 18th?

EURO Weeklies change by 40 degrees in places out west from previous run.     GEFS Ext. is cooler for us than the EURO.      18th-25th a step down to Normal+, then Normal- on the next 10 days.    I have no faith in these outputs.

Reached 73 here yesterday.

Today: 64-68, e. wind and breezy, cloudy.

63*(85%RH) here at 6am.         68* at 3pm.         Reached 69* at 5pm.

[snowman19]

16 hours ago, bluewave said:

The current October MJO 5 matches the snowier La Niña years since 2000 with -AO and -NAO intervals. The only two coupled La Niña  seasons since 2000 with below average snow and blocking were 2007-2008 and 2011-2012. The Octobers before those winters had a MJO 1-2 pattern. I don’t really know why this October to winter relationship has worked out for all the La Niña years since 2000.  That being said, we can’t  be sure this will continue to work for this winter. 

 

La Niña October MJO 5 before snowy seasons with blocking 

This year makes the list

La Niña October MJO 1-2 composite before below normal snowfall and no blocking

 

 

@bluewave@donsutherland1 Weathafella over at the New England forum pointed this out, the big -NAO/-AO Niña winters (95-96, 10-11) both had very pronounced tripoles in October. Warm around Greenland/Davis straight, big cold pool off New Foundland and warm again south of that. Textbook tripole. This year we have a dipole look with very warm SSTs off of New Foundland. Whether this means anything 2 months from now I don’t know but interesting none of the less. Here is his post: 

 

[gravitylover]

@donsutherland1is that praying mantis in the picture native? I don't think I've ever seen one that big. I need one like that to take care of all the cabbage worms in my garden.

[bluewave]

The October MJO 5 link may be related to the MJO 5 forcing the stronger Urals Ridge which has been shown to weaken the SPV.

[donsutherland1]

52 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

@bluewave@donsutherland1 Weathafella over at the New England forum pointed this out, the big -NAO/-AO Niña winters (95-96, 10-11) both had very pronounced tripoles in October. Warm around Greenland/Davis straight, big cold pool off New Foundland and warm again south of that. Textbook tripole. This year we have a dipole look with very warm SSTs off of New Foundland. Whether this means anything 2 months from now I don’t know but interesting none of the less. Here is his post: 

 

SSTAs seem to suggest a predominant positive NAO. The seasonal models had decreased the amount of potential blocking. While there remains uncertainty about snowfall, I don’t think a really big snowfall season is on the table. Something near normal or somewhat above normal may be possible at the high-end. But things could still change as the pattern continues to evolve and the La Niña develops.

[donsutherland1]

25 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

@donsutherland1is that praying mantis in the picture native? I don't think I've ever seen one that big. I need one like that to take care of all the cabbage worms in my garden.

I’ve seen that that large outside of the Bronx at the Marshlands Conservancy, but this is the biggest one I saw at the NY Botanical Garden.

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts…

It will be mostly cloudy and cool. Some showers are possible from time to time, but much of the day should be dry. Rainfall amounts will be light, mainly 0.25” or less. Only the Jersey Shore and eastern half of Long Island will likely see more appreciable amounts of rain. High temperatures will likely reach the middle and upper 60s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 64°

Newark: 68°

Philadelphia: 69°

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 66.6°; 15-Year: 67.7°

Newark: 30-Year: 68.2°; 15-Year: 69.6°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 69.4°; 15-Year: 70.5° 

A generally warmer than normal regime will continue into at least mid-month.

[bluewave]

11 hours ago, Roger Smith said:

The warmest October on record in most parts of the northeastern US was either 1947 or 1963,

October 2017 was our warmest on record.

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/news/national-climate-201710

 

 

[Dark Star]

1 hour ago, gravitylover said:

@donsutherland1is that praying mantis in the picture native? I don't think I've ever seen one that big. I need one like that to take care of all the cabbage worms in my garden.

Just picked up one about that size in my driveway in NE Jersey a few days ago and put him in a shrub.  I rarely see them that big.

[bluewave]

On 10/10/2021 at 7:22 AM, snowman19 said:

@bluewave@donsutherland1 Weathafella over at the New England forum pointed this out, the big -NAO/-AO Niña winters (95-96, 10-11) both had very pronounced tripoles in October. Warm around Greenland/Davis straight, big cold pool off New Foundland and warm again south of that. Textbook tripole. This year we have a dipole look with very warm SSTs off of New Foundland. Whether this means anything 2 months from now I don’t know but interesting none of the less. Here is his post: 

 

We had the record SST warmth east of Newfoundland last October also. That may be why we had the unusually south based -NAO/-AO last winter. But the La Niña didn’t couple last winter so it worked for us with the +PNA. Not  sure how a La Niña with a south based -AO would work out. The block may try to link up with the SE Ridge and dampen a -AO effect at times. The Equatorial Atlantic is near record levels of warmth this October which could also impact the winter rossby wave train. Plus the PDO is much colder this October.  All that being said, It always comes down to how the pattern actually develops during the winter. This early winter talk is always just speculation. 

October 2021

October  2020

 

[MJO812]

66 and Cloudy here

[snowman19]

17 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We had the record SST warmth east of Newfoundland last October also. That may be why we had the unusually south based -NAO/-AO last winter. But the La Niña didn’t couple last winter so it worked for us with the +PNA. Not  sure how a La Niña with a south based -AO would work out. The block may try to link up with the SE Ridge and dampen a -AO effect. The Equatorial Atlantic is near record levels of warmth this October which could also impact the winter rossby wave train. Plus the PDO is much colder this October.  All that being said, It always comes down to how the pattern actually develops during the winter. This early winter talk is always just speculation. 

October 2021

October  2020

 

Good point about the extreme warmth off New Foundland possibly causing that weird NAO/AO blocking last winter. As far as how this all plays out this winter is anyone’s guess. Big differences for this coming winter as you pointed out, are the 2nd year, coupled Niña and strong -PDO/-PMM. And yea, that equatorial warmth in the Atlantic is staggering 

[SACRUS]

Streak of nice weekend consecutively ended at 4 last weekend as this weekend coudn't continue the streak.

 

Warmer overall and near record temps this week.  Offshore system down by the Carolinas enhancing clouds and easterly flow.  Should clear out and warm up by Monday (10/11).  Temps racing back into the 70s and with enough sun 80s by  this coming Thu (10/14) and Fri (10/15).  Perhaps records in some areas .  (EWR will be tough with and need 85 and 86)  Beyond there next weekend (10/16-17) cold front arrives and coolest of the season for a period till next Tuesday or Wed (10/20).  Beyond there it looks to moderate back to a warmer to much warmer regime.