forkyfork Posted October 6, 2021 Share Posted October 6, 2021 i thought he did. still above normal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted October 6, 2021 Share Posted October 6, 2021 37 minutes ago, forkyfork said: i thought he did. still above normal My normal low today is 44, thus far the low for the day is 59. October is the new September. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RippleEffect Posted October 6, 2021 Share Posted October 6, 2021 1 hour ago, psv88 said: The arctic circle? Yeah I pay attention to those spots and up to 500 miles south throughout the northern hemisphere. The frigid air is coming. It’ll be here just in time for around Christmas this year in my opinion. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 6, 2021 Share Posted October 6, 2021 3 minutes ago, RippleEffect said: Yeah I pay attention to those spots and up to 500 miles south throughout the northern hemisphere. The frigid air is coming. It’ll be here just in time for around Christmas this year in my opinion. all depends on the SE ridge-if that flexes no cold air will be able to penetrate east of the apps or even the mississippi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted October 6, 2021 Share Posted October 6, 2021 1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said: It's been so warm that our lows are only 5-6 degrees from average highs. And next week looks even warmer than this one I think we have a decent chance of hitting 80 next week. I love warm weather in october. 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RippleEffect Posted October 6, 2021 Share Posted October 6, 2021 12 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: all depends on the SE ridge-if that flexes no cold air will be able to penetrate east of the apps or even the mississippi Yes it will it’s just matter of do we get a clean snow event or a mixed bag. Cold air is dense and it does go through regardless of mountains but the upper air could warm up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 6, 2021 Author Share Posted October 6, 2021 12 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: I think we have a decent chance of hitting 80 next week. I love warm weather in october. Likely this Friday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted October 6, 2021 Share Posted October 6, 2021 14 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Likely this Friday It's going to be close friday. It might stop in the upper 70s due to too many clouds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 6, 2021 Share Posted October 6, 2021 it's fog season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 6, 2021 Share Posted October 6, 2021 The Euro gets upgraded next week. Significant improvement in moist processes. This will eventually allow for 4-5km convection permitting resolutions in the future. It will be interesting to see what a global model looks like when run at resolutions like the HRRR and hi res NAM. Maybe this moist process upgrade next week will improve the east coast storm track suppression issue that popped up with one of the upgrades after 2013. We are pleased to confirm the operational implementation of IFS Cycle 47r3 with the 06 UTC run, 12 October 2021 The upgrade will bring improvements to the assimilation and observations usage and a significantly improved physical basis for moist processes, necessary to facilitate further development of the Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) and future application at convection-permitting resolutions. The release candidate phase has been running in near real-time since 14 September. In a recent Webinar we explained the scientific background, its meteorological impact, and some new and revised products. Forecast users are recommended to read "47r3 Impact on Surface Weather representation", highlighting the changes with 47r3 in the characteristics of many frequently used forecast fields and products. We would also like to remind you of a change to the “Master Tables Version Number”, affecting allparameters in GRIB 2, and encourage you to check your data processing with the test data provided as soon as possible ahead of implementation. Detailed information can be found on the 47r3 implementation page. Please “watch” the page to get notified about further updates. https://confluence.ecmwf.int/display/FCST/47r3+Impact+on+Surface+Weather+representation IFS cycle 47r3 is delivering noteworthy changes in the characteristics of many of the forecast fields (such as precipitation) and forecast products regularly used by forecasters and others. These changes are probably more substantial, as a whole, than anything we have seen with any ECMWF cycle in the last 10 years. This page aims to highlight the key differences. It is common forecaster practice to adjust for perceived/known biases or weaknesses in model behaviour, and given the new characteristics application of these ("old") corrections to output from the new cycle may no longer be appropriate. Some such corrections can be discarded or toned down; other new ones may need to be introduced. Most of the changes with 47r3 are attributable to the new "Moist Physics" package, affecting cloud and precipitation in particular. However changes to the visibility and gust diagnostics will also have a substantial impact on occasion. Impacts are listed below, by parameter, with examples generally comparing output from cycle 47r2 (operational until 12 October 2021) and contiguous non-operational runs of 47r3 (operational from 12 October 2021). Unless stated otherwise examples are from HRES. "NEW CYCLE" on plots below means 47r3. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 6, 2021 Share Posted October 6, 2021 cloudy, all the time 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 6, 2021 Share Posted October 6, 2021 This was the deepest September trough near Alaska since 2011 which pumped up the record ridge over Canada. We have usually been seeing record ridges in that area since 2013. The other exception was the deep vortex there for the 2019-2020 winter. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted October 6, 2021 Share Posted October 6, 2021 A small amount of tropical moisture infusion may be trending more likely here for Saturday-Monday? No thread yet, but 12z/6 EC op has about spot near 7" by Monday in ne NJ... and the GEFS 500 is looking more like the EC. The question how far north before pushing east Monday. Looks to me like an inverted trough develops offshore Friday with low pressure moving north along it for awhile. EPS has pretty decent se inflow at 850MB with weaker upper level steering. I'm not doubting the spots of very light qpf the EC has in parts of our area tonight through Saturday morning. Will we see a widespread moderate 1/4-3" rain sometime this weekend? or not... Right now forecasts are variable from nearly NIL to a decent event. I think this is still worth monitoring til the EC and GGEM OPS keep it south of our subforum. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted October 6, 2021 Share Posted October 6, 2021 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 6, 2021 Share Posted October 6, 2021 Euro has 2-3 inches of rain over the weekend 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sn0w Posted October 6, 2021 Share Posted October 6, 2021 1 hour ago, Allsnow said: Euro has 2-3 inches of rain over the weekend How far north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 6, 2021 Share Posted October 6, 2021 1 hour ago, Allsnow said: Euro has 2-3 inches of rain over the weekend Model war-GFS is dry with a high kicking it east off the VA Capes and NAM looks like it has a big high over Maine at hour 84 4 minutes ago, sn0w said: How far north? up to Massachusetts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 6, 2021 Share Posted October 6, 2021 leaning toward more of a low coming north 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 6, 2021 Share Posted October 6, 2021 10 hours ago, jfklganyc said: But just a few days ago you said: ”anyone thinking next week is going to somehow be cool is sorely mistaken” I took note of it because I said this week would feature cool days. So did I win the chicken dinner or did you ? lol there's a vast difference between heat and cold weather. we were somewhere in between. there was one somewhat cool day, it's back to feeling warm today (I had my ceiling fans on- a/c will probably be on tomorrow) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 6, 2021 Share Posted October 6, 2021 2 hours ago, LoboLeader1 said: thats awesome it means we all save on heating bills for another month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 7, 2021 Share Posted October 7, 2021 10 hours ago, forkyfork said: your normal low is 45 indeed, and upper 50s isnt low. The only reason it was cool was because there was no sun and temps were in the 60s during the day, that ends going forward Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 7, 2021 Share Posted October 7, 2021 8 hours ago, IrishRob17 said: My normal low today is 44, thus far the low for the day is 59. October is the new September. why do people even want a cold October? all it does is add to heating bills- I want cold and snow only in actual winter, outside of that it's useless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 7, 2021 Share Posted October 7, 2021 5 hours ago, forkyfork said: cloudy, all the time I'm glad we're finally starting on geo-engineering projects I just saw a the first of a new type of device that take humidity out of the air and convert it to water to be used for drinking, etc. The humidity needs to be at least 30% and you can squeeze out hundreds to thousands of gallons of water a day depending on which model you buy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 7, 2021 Share Posted October 7, 2021 The temperature rose into the upper 60s and lower 70s across the region today despite a lot of clouds. Newark reached 70° for the 161st time this year. As a result, 2021 is tied for 17th place with 1949, 1998, 2014, 2016, and 2019. Tomorrow will be even warmer as sunshine returns. Temperatures will generally approach or reach the middle 70s in a large part of the region. Overall, though, the generally warm regime will continue through the coming weekend. Bismarck is concluding what now will be among the 3 warmest opening weeks in October. Today, Bismarck reached 80° for the 5th consecutive day with a high of 85°. That is the longest such stretch on record in October. The old record was set during October 3-6, 1879 and tied during October 10-13, 1934. Today was also the 110th 80° day of 2021. The prior record was 99 days from 1936. Records go back to 1874. Fall 2021 will likely be wetter to much wetter than normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region. Since 1869, there have been 9 August cases where New York City picked up 20.00" or more rainfall during the summer. Two thirds of those cases (and 4/5 of those with summer mean temperatures of 73.0° or above) had 17.00" or more fall precipitation in New York City. 2011 is probably the closest match in terms of precipitation and a nearly identical summer mean temperature. Mean fall precipitation for those 9 cases was 14.86". The median was 17.35". The 1991-2020 normal value is 12.27". Following very wet July-September periods, winter (December-February) precipitation has typically been near or below normal. The most recent exception was winter 2018-19. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was 0.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.0°C for the week centered around September 29. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.07°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.28°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely yield to La Niña conditions later this month. The SOI was +7.35 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.323 today. On October 4 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.824 (RMM). The October 3-adjusted amplitude was 1.761 (RMM). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LIWeatherGuy29 Posted October 7, 2021 Share Posted October 7, 2021 It's been dry here as of late in southwestern Nassau. The last decent rainfall here was on September 24th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted October 7, 2021 Share Posted October 7, 2021 2 hours ago, forkyfork said: leaning toward more of a low coming north looking forward to sustained fall weather in november... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 7, 2021 Share Posted October 7, 2021 12 hours ago, bluewave said: This was the deepest September trough near Alaska since 2011 which pumped up the record ridge over Canada. We have usually been seeing record ridges in that area since 2013. The other exception was the deep vortex there for the 2019-2020 winter. Probably related to the big -PDO/-PMM changes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted October 7, 2021 Share Posted October 7, 2021 No thread this morning. 00z/7 GEFS trended a little wetter, the NAEFS and EPS about the same as yesterday... so not worth a thread unless this becomes a subtropical and comes due north. For now, conservative but monitoring. WPC has added a little more water to its weekend forecast for our area but not much. Op runs through 00z/7 with the exception of the EC are pretty benign. Looks to me like an inverted trough develops offshore Friday with low pressure moving north along it for awhile. EPS has pretty decent se inflow at 850MB with weaker upper level steering. Will we see a widespread moderate 1/4-3" rain sometime this weekend? or not... Right now forecasts are variable from nearly NIL to a decent event. Still worth monitoring til the EC and GGEM OPS keep it south of our subforum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 7, 2021 Share Posted October 7, 2021 Morning thoughts… Today will be partly sunny and mild. High temperatures will likely reach the lower and middle 70s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 72° Newark: 76° Philadelphia: 76° Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 67.8°; 15-Year: 69.0° Newark: 30-Year: 69.4°; 15-Year: 70.8° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 70.6°; 15-Year: 71.8° A generally warmer than normal regime will continue into at least mid-month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted October 7, 2021 Share Posted October 7, 2021 The next 8 days are averaging 70degs.(64/75), or +10. GFS is basically dry for the next 10 days and 70 or better everyday. EURO has rain on both weekends. Today: 73-78, wind variable, p. cloudy or p. sunny. Reached 72 here yesterday. 63*(92%RH) here at 6am. 67* at 9am. 70* at Noon. 73* at 3pm. 76* at 4pm. Reached 77* at 4:30pm. 71* at 6am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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