LibertyBell Posted October 5, 2021 Share Posted October 5, 2021 5 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: I enjoyed that year once it was obvious what was going on. Low heating bills, hiking/biking it was actually kind of nice. 80 in March! I liked 2001-02 better because we went right to a dry hot summer it was awesome with little or no humidity in 2002 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 5, 2021 Share Posted October 5, 2021 31 minutes ago, KEITH L.I said: Looks like last year. Seasonals are not very accuarate.I mean it could turn out that way but predicting weather a month or 2 or 3 months in advace is basically a toss up. I remember saying this around this time last year when we were all on suicide watch because of the monthly's. I agree. Fortunately, at this timeframe, a lot can change. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 5, 2021 Share Posted October 5, 2021 1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said: It’s definitely not what winter weather lovers would like to see. It’s interesting how close that Pacific forecast is to DJF 16-17 and 17-18. While we had the background SE Ridge, the Aleutian ridge built over the top at times for -AO periods. So getting those blocking intervals will be essential for near to above normal snowfall this winter. DJF 2016-2017 and 2017-2018 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted October 5, 2021 Share Posted October 5, 2021 If Newark makes it to 70 degrees today, I am going to think there may be shenanigans going on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 5, 2021 Share Posted October 5, 2021 8 minutes ago, lee59 said: If Newark makes it to 70 degrees today, I am going to think there may be shenanigans going on. Looks like the high was 68° with the minimum driving the warm departure. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyrangers1022 Posted October 5, 2021 Share Posted October 5, 2021 1 hour ago, Brian5671 said: If it's going to be a torch winter give me '11-'12 Definitely. I love torch winters. Hate being stuck in the house, with minimum daylight to go along with it. So depressing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 5, 2021 Share Posted October 5, 2021 1 hour ago, bluewave said: It’s interesting how close that Pacific forecast is to DJF 16-17 and 17-18. While we had the background SE Ridge, the Aleutian ridge built over the top at times for -AO periods. So getting those blocking intervals will be essential for near to above normal snowfall this winter. DJF 2016-2017 and 2017-2018 Absolutely. Blocking will be crucial. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 6, 2021 Share Posted October 6, 2021 Clouds and some patchy drizzle confined temperatures to the 60s across the region today. Clouds should begin to break tomorrow and warmer air should return. Temperatures will likely reach or exceed 70° in much of the region tomorrow. Newark's record-breaking streak with high temperatures of 70° or above ended at 127 consecutive days. The previous record was 119 days, which was set in 2008. For the year, Newark has 160 such days, which ranks 22nd highest. The record is 173 days, which was set in 2010. Overall, though, the warm regime will continue through the coming weekend. Bismarck remains in line for one of its 5 warmest opening weeks in October. Earlier today, Bismarck achieved its 4th consecutive 80° high temperature in October with a high temperature of 91°. That eclipsed the old daily mark of 90°, which was set in 1947 and tied in 1949. The 4 consecutive 80° days tied the record that was set during October 3-6, 1879 and tied during October 10-13, 1934. Records go back to 1874. Fall 2021 will likely be wetter to much wetter than normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region. Since 1869, there have been 9 August cases where New York City picked up 20.00" or more rainfall during the summer. Two thirds of those cases (and 4/5 of those with summer mean temperatures of 73.0° or above) had 17.00" or more fall precipitation in New York City. 2011 is probably the closest match in terms of precipitation and a nearly identical summer mean temperature. Mean fall precipitation for those 9 cases was 14.86". The median was 17.35". The 1991-2020 normal value is 12.27". Following very wet July-September periods, winter (December-February) precipitation has typically been near or below normal. The most recent exception was winter 2018-19. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was 0.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.0°C for the week centered around September 29. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.07°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.28°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely yield to La Niña conditions later this month. The SOI was +12.57 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.503 today. On October 3 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.753 (RMM). The October 2-adjusted amplitude was 1.726 (RMM). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted October 6, 2021 Share Posted October 6, 2021 THE NEXT 30 WHICH LOOKS LIKE THE NEXT 46 WHICH LOOKS LIKE THE NEXT.................................................................. FROM EURO WEEKLIES------THE CONTROL IS IDENTICAL, I AM AFRAID: 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 6, 2021 Share Posted October 6, 2021 12 hours ago, BxEngine said: the bat signal went up. Please, celebrate me home,Give me a number,Please, celebrate me homePlay me one more song,That I'll always remember,And I can recall,Whenever I find myself too all alone,I can sing me home. Please celebrate me home 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 6, 2021 Share Posted October 6, 2021 4 hours ago, bluewave said: Looks like the high was 68° with the minimum driving the warm departure. I dont believe in this minimum fake heat. I dont mind it being used in the "off seasons" but minimums should definitely NOT be used for describing hot summers. The definition of a hot day is and should be, a day with a high reaching 90 or higher. All a high min does is simply describe the amount of water vapor in the air not really heat. A high min means more water vapor, not actual heat. I, as a matter of fact, strongly recommend that when we calculate summer heat we ONLY use the high temperature to calculate averages, that would alleviate a lot of problems that come from water vapor taint. I was shivering today, this was in no way shape or form a warm day! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 6, 2021 Share Posted October 6, 2021 35 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Please, celebrate me home,Give me a number,Please, celebrate me homePlay me one more song,That I'll always remember,And I can recall,Whenever I find myself too all alone,I can sing me home. Please celebrate me home I hate that song. In addition to being overplayed, it shows horribly bad grammar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted October 6, 2021 Share Posted October 6, 2021 13 hours ago, BxEngine said: the bat signal went up. Good evening BxE. He can still strike five times before he’s caught. Which is also the number for the second line of his song. Considering my alter ego, I better make sure the spare capes are pressed. As always …. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted October 6, 2021 Share Posted October 6, 2021 2 hours ago, snowman19 said: Please, celebrate me home,Give me a number,Please, celebrate me homePlay me one more song,That I'll always remember,And I can recall,Whenever I find myself too all alone,I can sing me home. Please celebrate me home 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RippleEffect Posted October 6, 2021 Share Posted October 6, 2021 Colder air will start invading the north hemisphere after this weekend guys. Enjoy your day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 6, 2021 Share Posted October 6, 2021 Morning thoughts… Today could see clouds break in parts of the region. It will turn milder. High temperatures will likely reach the upper 60s and lower 70s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 69° Newark: 74° Philadelphia: 74° Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 68.2°; 15-Year: 69.4° Newark: 30-Year: 69.8°; 15-Year: 71.3° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 71.0°; 15-Year: 72.2° A generally warmer than normal regime will continue through much or all of the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted October 6, 2021 Share Posted October 6, 2021 The next 8 days are averaging 69degs.(64/75), or +8 GFS/EURO continue 'Kaboola' dance with the precip.---back on the GFS, off on the EURO---for next 10 days. Reached 69 here yesterday, then quickly fell back. Today: 71-75, winds ne+variable, m. cloudy, no rain. As an aside-----the EURO has 6 straight 80's in Chicago!, incoming. 63*(85%RH) here at 6am. 65* at 9am. 66* at Noon. 69* at 1pm. 70* at 2pm. Reached 72* at 4pm, with a little sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 6, 2021 Share Posted October 6, 2021 International Falls is headed for the latest first freeze on record as much of North America has well above average temperatures. Frost/Freeze Summary for International Falls Area, MN (ThreadEx)Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Last Value First Value Season Length 2016 06-08 (2016) 30 10-08 (2016) 29 121 1919 05-08 (1919) 32 10-06 (1919) 25 150 1988 05-14 (1988) 31 10-04 (1988) 25 142 1968 05-23 (1968) 30 10-04 (1968) 27 133 1921 06-04 (1921) 29 10-03 (1921) 31 120 2017 05-24 (2017) 30 09-29 (2017) 32 127 1994 05-10 (1994) 26 09-29 (1994) 32 141 1920 05-13 (1920) 29 09-29 (1920) 28 138 2019 06-02 (2019) 29 09-28 (2019) 29 117 2015 06-01 (2015) 30 09-28 (2015) 28 118 Euro October forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted October 6, 2021 Share Posted October 6, 2021 So, the junk weather from mid afternoon Sunday into early today may abate a bit the next couple of days but should return this weekend. Here are the two day totals that incorporate Sunday afternoon through Tuesday morning. Max 3" in Hartford County CT and the bulk of the 1+ near and north of I84. Click maps for greater clarity. Pattern suggests a few periods of drizzle interior NJ/NYS the next couple of days and potential for decent rain this weekend, probably closer to the coast for the weekend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 6, 2021 Share Posted October 6, 2021 3 hours ago, RippleEffect said: Colder air will start invading the north hemisphere after this weekend guys. Enjoy your day. Not exactly a bold statement as we head deeper into October lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 6, 2021 Share Posted October 6, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted October 6, 2021 Share Posted October 6, 2021 10 hours ago, LibertyBell said: I dont believe in this minimum fake heat. I dont mind it being used in the "off seasons" but minimums should definitely NOT be used for describing hot summers. The definition of a hot day is and should be, a day with a high reaching 90 or higher. All a high min does is simply describe the amount of water vapor in the air not really heat. A high min means more water vapor, not actual heat. I, as a matter of fact, strongly recommend that when we calculate summer heat we ONLY use the high temperature to calculate averages, that would alleviate a lot of problems that come from water vapor taint. I was shivering today, this was in no way shape or form a warm day! But just a few days ago you said: ”anyone thinking next week is going to somehow be cool is sorely mistaken” I took note of it because I said this week would feature cool days. So did I win the chicken dinner or did you ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted October 6, 2021 Share Posted October 6, 2021 59F at 930am 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 6, 2021 Share Posted October 6, 2021 17 minutes ago, jfklganyc said: 59F at 930am your normal low is 45 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RippleEffect Posted October 6, 2021 Share Posted October 6, 2021 1 hour ago, Brian5671 said: Not exactly a bold statement as we head deeper into October lol I was just checking a bunch of north of the circle locations and seems like Sunday is the last day of above freezing temps in many of those locations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted October 6, 2021 Share Posted October 6, 2021 20 minutes ago, RippleEffect said: I was just checking a bunch of north of the circle locations and seems like Sunday is the last day of above freezing temps in many of those locations The arctic circle? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 6, 2021 Share Posted October 6, 2021 51 minutes ago, forkyfork said: your normal low is 45 It's been so warm that our lows are only 5-6 degrees from average highs. And next week looks even warmer than this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted October 6, 2021 Share Posted October 6, 2021 49 minutes ago, forkyfork said: your normal low is 45 Normal low is 49 at HPN today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 6, 2021 Share Posted October 6, 2021 2 minutes ago, qg_omega said: Normal low is 49 at HPN today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted October 6, 2021 Share Posted October 6, 2021 Just now, forkyfork said: He doesn’t live in Poughkeepsie to my knowledge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now