lee59 Posted October 21, 2021 Share Posted October 21, 2021 71 degrees here after a high of 74. Beautiful day. Foliage is so far behind we may peak closer to Thanksgiving rather than Halloween, if we don't get some cold weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted October 21, 2021 Share Posted October 21, 2021 Maybe some 70 degree readings tomorrow in the normally milder areas, but it looks like the 70s are history this weekend and next week. It was nice while it lasted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 21, 2021 Share Posted October 21, 2021 1 hour ago, bluewave said: The extended EPS continues the above normal temperatures into November. Oct 25- Nov 1 Nov 1-Nov 8 Nov 8- Nov 15 Yeah probably the case though anything that far out is tough to diagnose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 21, 2021 Share Posted October 21, 2021 Brilliant sunshine provided for another unseasonably warm October day. Temperatures soared well into the 70s across the region. Newark reached 70° for the 173rd time this year. That tied the record set in 2010. Four of the five years that saw 170 or more such days have occurred since 2000 and three have occurred since 2010. Tomorrow will be a bit cooler but still unseasonably warm. A more seasonably cool weekend lies ahead. Early next week and again later in the week, storms could bring a moderate to significant rainfall to parts of the region. No sharp cold shots appear likely through the remainder of October. The following locations are on course to challenge or establish new record high lowest monthly temperatures for October (through October 20): Allentown: 40° (record: 38°, 1971) Boston: 46° (record: 45°, 1971) Bridgeport: 43° (record: 41°, 2004) Islip: 42° (record: 40°, 1971 and 2017) New York City-JFK: 48° (record: 46°, 1971) New York City-LGA: 51° (record: 47°, 1971) New York City-NYC: 47° (record: 45°, 1971) Newark: 46° (record: 45°, 1971) Philadelphia: 46° (record: 45°, 1882, 1927 and 1931) Poughkeepsie: 38° (record: 35°, 1971, 1995 and 1996) White Plains: 44° (record: 40°, 1971) In northern Maine, Caribou has yet to experience its first freeze of autumn. The prior record latest first freeze occurred on October 17, 1970. The normal first freeze (1991-2020) occurs on September 25th, which was an increase of 2 days over the prior 1981-2010 base period. The MJO has now completed its passage through Phase 5 at a very high amplitude. During the 1991-2020 period, there were 6 cases with passage through Phase 5 with at least three days at an amplitude of 1.500 or above: 1998, 2000, 2004, 2010, 2017, and 2020. There was a strong signal for the second half of October to wind up warmer than normal (83%) cases in the New York City area. However, that signal broke down to a 50-50 split for the first 10 days of November. That hints at possible timing for a pattern transition depending on the pattern evolution and changes in the teleconnections. Fall 2021 will likely be wetter to much wetter than normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region. Since 1869, there have been 9 August cases where New York City picked up 20.00" or more rainfall during the summer. Two thirds of those cases (and 4/5 of those with summer mean temperatures of 73.0° or above) had 17.00" or more fall precipitation in New York City. 2011 is probably the closest match in terms of precipitation and a nearly identical summer mean temperature. Mean fall precipitation for those 9 cases was 14.86". The median was 17.35". The 1991-2020 normal value is 12.27". Following very wet July-September periods, winter (December-February) precipitation has typically been near or below normal. The most recent exception was winter 2018-19. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around October 13. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.15°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.43°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through at least mid-winter. The SOI was +12.18 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.619 today. On October 19 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 0.334 (RMM). The October 18-adjusted amplitude was 0.312 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 99% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 61.8° (3.9° above normal). 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted October 21, 2021 Share Posted October 21, 2021 8 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: Brilliant sunshine provided for another unseasonably warm October day. Temperatures soared well into the 70s across the region. Newark reached 70° for the 173rd time this year. That tied the record set in 2010. Four of the five years that saw 170 or more such days have occurred since 2000 and three have occurred since 2010. Tomorrow will be a bit cooler but still unseasonably warm. A more seasonably cool weekend lies ahead. Early next week and again later in the week, storms could bring a moderate to significant rainfall to parts of the region. No sharp cold shots appear likely through the remainder of October. The following locations are on course to challenge or establish new record high lowest monthly temperatures for October (through October 20): Allentown: 40° (record: 38°, 1971) Boston: 46° (record: 45°, 1971) Bridgeport: 43° (record: 41°, 2004) Islip: 42° (record: 40°, 1971 and 2017) New York City-JFK: 48° (record: 46°, 1971) New York City-LGA: 51° (record: 47°, 1971) New York City-NYC: 47° (record: 45°, 1971) Newark: 46° (record: 45°, 1971) Philadelphia: 46° (record: 45°, 1882, 1927 and 1931) Poughkeepsie: 38° (record: 35°, 1971, 1995 and 1996) White Plains: 44° (record: 40°, 1971) In northern Maine, Caribou has yet to experience its first freeze of autumn. The prior record latest first freeze occurred on October 17, 1970. The normal first freeze (1991-2020) occurs on September 25th, which was an increase of 2 days over the prior 1981-2010 base period. The MJO has now completed its passage through Phase 5 at a very high amplitude. During the 1991-2020 period, there were 6 cases with passage through Phase 5 with at least three days at an amplitude of 1.500 or above: 1998, 2000, 2004, 2010, 2017, and 2020. There was a strong signal for the second half of October to wind up warmer than normal (83%) cases in the New York City area. However, that signal broke down to a 50-50 split for the first 10 days of November. That hints at possible timing for a pattern transition depending on the pattern evolution and changes in the teleconnections. Fall 2021 will likely be wetter to much wetter than normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region. Since 1869, there have been 9 August cases where New York City picked up 20.00" or more rainfall during the summer. Two thirds of those cases (and 4/5 of those with summer mean temperatures of 73.0° or above) had 17.00" or more fall precipitation in New York City. 2011 is probably the closest match in terms of precipitation and a nearly identical summer mean temperature. Mean fall precipitation for those 9 cases was 14.86". The median was 17.35". The 1991-2020 normal value is 12.27". Following very wet July-September periods, winter (December-February) precipitation has typically been near or below normal. The most recent exception was winter 2018-19. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around October 13. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.15°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.43°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through at least mid-winter. The SOI was +12.18 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.619 today. On October 19 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 0.334 (RMM). The October 18-adjusted amplitude was 0.312 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 99% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 61.8° (3.9° above normal). It seems the warmth over the past number of months has been more extreme, relative to normal, the further north you go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 21, 2021 Share Posted October 21, 2021 9 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: Today will probably be a few degrees cooler. Oh well, I'm counting it as 80 because it hit 80 here, JFK is hotter than LGA on a downslope wind so I'm a bit suspicious of yesterday's numbers there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 21, 2021 Share Posted October 21, 2021 23 minutes ago, lee59 said: It seems the warmth over the past number of months has been more extreme, relative to normal, the further north you go. Yeah, the warmer departures to the north pattern has been stuck in place since last winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted October 21, 2021 Share Posted October 21, 2021 3 minutes ago, bluewave said: Yeah, the warmer departures to the north pattern has been locked in since last winter. With that warmth up north, if we get some good cold air passing over the warmer than normal Great Lakes, could be some big lake affect in the snowbelt areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 21, 2021 Share Posted October 21, 2021 1 hour ago, lee59 said: It seems the warmth over the past number of months has been more extreme, relative to normal, the further north you go. That’s been a persistent theme. It may have something to do with the exceptionally warm SSTs off the northeastern U.S. and eastern Canada. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 Had a high temp of 78 here today. Yesterday I went up to Swartswood State Park in Sussex County. I thought there would be a decent amount of color, but it was still mostly green. Amazing to still have mostly green in extreme northwest NJ in late October. What an October this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 so far the lowest temp for this October is 47...45 is the record tied in 1971... 45 in 1946....great February with a major storm... 45 in 1971.....very good February... 44 in 2004.....very good winter with a major storm in January... 43 in 1994.....good February in a bad winter... 43 in 1927.....lousy winter... 43 in 2019.....horrible winter... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 Lee Goldberg indicating a pattern change and this could be our mildest night until next spring. We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 7 hours ago, bluewave said: The extended EPS continues the above normal temperatures into November. Starting to remind me of Fall 2015 a little bit. AN week after week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 Decent look if it was winter. A bit flat out west though. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 8 hours ago, bluewave said: The extended EPS continues the above normal temperatures into November. Oct 25- Nov 1 Nov 1-Nov 8 Nov 8- Nov 15 Evidence is mounting for a rebound and strengthening of the SPV next month: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 Gfs brings the cold in here during the 1st week of November. Most likely too fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 34 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Evidence is mounting for a rebound and strengthening of the SPV next month: Evidence is also mounting for a colder pattern later next month. La Nina winters usually start out cold but them get warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 1 hour ago, lee59 said: Lee Goldberg indicating a pattern change and this could be our mildest night until next spring. We shall see. I think we get warm sectored Monday pretty hard and then flip a lot colder by Tuesday. Like mid 70s to low 50s type of deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 12 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: I think we get warm sectored Monday pretty hard and then flip a lot colder by Tuesday. Like mid 70s to low 50s type of deal. we need to go with our (now) regular climate patterns. I find it very hard to believe we wont get to 70 sometime between next week and the the start of astronomical winter and also at some point later during the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 2 hours ago, lee59 said: Lee Goldberg indicating a pattern change and this could be our mildest night until next spring. We shall see. Hopefully not, I have zero plans to turn my house heat on before November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 7 hours ago, bluewave said: Yeah, the warmer departures to the north pattern has been stuck in place since last winter. You could say that all the heat building up in the Arctic is finally making its way southward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 2 hours ago, MJO812 said: Evidence is also mounting for a colder pattern later next month. La Nina winters usually start out cold but them get warmer. If it gets colder later next month it will come from a PAC reshuffle with the tropical convective forcing, not from some crazy SSW and super weak SPV like Joe Bastardi has been hyping to no end for the last 2 months. His wishcast of a major SSW/super weak SPV causing an uber cold November - January looks to be an epic fail incoming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: If it gets colder later next month it will come from a PAC reshuffle with the tropical convective forcing, not from some crazy SSW and super weak SPV like Joe Bastardi has been hyping to no end for the last 2 months. His wishcast of a major SSW/super weak SPV causing an uber cold November - January looks to be an epic fail incoming Just like your winter forecast last year . We know how horrible that was . Once again you’re putting all the emphasis on the La Niña when other factors may come into play similiar to last year. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 Morning thoughts… It will partly sunny and still warm. High temperatures will likely reach the upper 60s and 70s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 68° Newark: 72° Philadelphia: 68° Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 62.3°; 15-Year: 62.8° Newark: 30-Year: 63.7°; 15-Year: 64.6° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 64.9°; 15-Year: 65.3° A cooler weekend lies ahead. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 The next 8 days are averaging 60degs.(54/67), or +6. Month to date is 64.3[+4.6]. Could be 63.2[+5.0] by the 30th. Only reached 69* here yesterday with the sea breeze. Today: 67-70, wind w. to n. to ne. P. cloudy/M. cloudy. 63*(78%RH) here at 6am. 62* at 7am. 63* at 9am. 66* at Noon. 69* at 3pm. 70* at 3:30pm. Reached 71* around 4:30pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 Very mild morning at 63 degrees. Meanwhile up north in the Adirondacks, looks like a weekend of mixed rain and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 2 hours ago, Neblizzard said: Just like your winter forecast last year . We know how horrible that was . Once again you’re putting all the emphasis on the La Niña when other factors may come into play similiar to last year. I never made a winter forecast last year lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 Warmest fall on record through October 20th for many stations across the region. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 Just an absolute scorcher since August. Even a return to normal would feel cold given current anomalies. Very scary times we're looking living in. I imagine within a decade or two numerous 80s in October will be the norm with 90+ temperatures possible. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 https://ibb.co/xs7TtYd It's going to get warm to overperform here days 4-7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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