October 2021

[SnoSki14]

Strong coastal signal for next week though not sure where it'll end up. 

EPS definitely has more of a +PNA showing up late October into early November.

[Brian5671]

21 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Strong coastal signal for next week though not sure where it'll end up. 

EPS definitely has more of a +PNA showing up late October into early November.

looks like some blocking too....could give someone a soaker if we get a slow moving storm-we are due, most areas have had little rain since 9/1.

[tdp146]

1 hour ago, tdp146 said:

77.7 today is the October max temp at my site. Beating out a couple 77.6's lol. 

78... a 4:30 PM high like its July

[MJO812]

Nice  trough 

[nyrangers1022]

4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Nice  trough 

Yuck. 

[CIK62]

 

 

EVEN BETTER: bottom

But the GEFS below LOOKS UN-IMPRESSED

[doncat]

76° here today, tied record for date.

[Santa Claus]

90s for Halloween per the long-range North Korean

[Allsnow]

1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

In our old Climate this was definitely true. The problem is we have seen ultra persistent patterns in recent years. The question is how long this can hold. It’s not what we want to see.   

It really does feel like summer tonight! Just one of those early September nights! I 100% agree about this 3 month pattern persistence. It’s something we have been stuck in for years now. I remember last November it was 70 degrees to start the month. It was great for the late season stripe bass fishing. I’m completely okay with it being warm currently! I don’t want a ideal pattern for snow until mid December 

[Allsnow]

22 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I can remember when Eastern Troughs  at the end of October actually had some decent cold. This time the Pacific is very unfavorable. The -NAO blocking is also pressing pretty far south near New England.

The source region continues to be from the pac with any trough we do get. Until that changes are cool downs will be brief and around normal 

[uncle W]

30 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I can remember when Eastern Troughs  at the end of October actually had some decent cold. This time the Pacific is very unfavorable. The -NAO blocking is also pressing pretty far south near New England.

 

 

Like last year

[wdrag]

Not wintry but definitely signs that one of these troughs crossing the mid Atlantic coast between the 25th-30th is going to create an ocean nor'easter of 40-50kt... whether its' grazing Delmarva or LI?  and with only a few 40 kt gusts or more vigorous on our coasts? Tides are not abnormally high so that is good.  The previously posted 500MB height departures from normal show the blocking.  

[donsutherland1]

Under bright sunshine, the temperature surged into the middle and upper 70s across much of the region. High temperatures included:

Bridgeport: 77° (old record: 75°, 1953)
Islip: 75° (old record: 74°, 1969, 1979, and 1984)
New Haven: 77° (old record: 73°, 1953 and 2017)
New York City-JFK: 79°
New York City-LGA: 80° (old record: 79°, 1953 and 1984)
New York City-NYC: 75°
Newark: 80° (tied record set in 1947 and tied in 1969)
Philadelphia: 76°
White Plains: 74°

Newark reached 70° for the 172nd time this year. As a result, 2021 is now has the 2nd most days on record. Today was also Newark's 116th 80° day, which ranks 2nd on the all-time list.

Tomorrow and Friday will be unseasonably warm. Another cool shot is likely for the weekend.

The MJO has now completed its passage through Phase 5 at a very high amplitude. During the 1991-2020 period, there were 6 cases with passage through Phase 5 with at least three days at an amplitude of 1.500 or above: 1998, 2000, 2004, 2010, 2017, and 2020. There was a strong signal for the second half of October to wind up warmer than normal (83%) cases in the New York City area. However, that signal broke down to a 50-50 split for the first 10 days of November. That hints at possible timing for a pattern transition depending on the pattern evolution and changes in the teleconnections.

Fall 2021 will likely be wetter to much wetter than normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region. Since 1869, there have been 9 August cases where New York City picked up 20.00" or more rainfall during the summer. Two thirds of those cases (and 4/5 of those with summer mean temperatures of 73.0° or above) had 17.00" or more fall precipitation in New York City. 2011 is probably the closest match in terms of precipitation and a nearly identical summer mean temperature. Mean fall precipitation for those 9 cases was 14.86". The median was 17.35". The 1991-2020 normal value is 12.27".

Following very wet July-September periods, winter (December-February) precipitation has typically been near or below normal. The most recent exception was winter 2018-19.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around October 13. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.15°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.43°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through at least mid-winter.

The SOI was +6.70 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.151 today.

On October 18 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 0.315 (RMM). The October 17-adjusted amplitude was 0.375 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 98% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 61.7° (3.8° above normal).

 

[LibertyBell]

4 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Under bright sunshine, the temperature surged into the middle and upper 70s across much of the region. High temperatures included:

Bridgeport: 77° (old record: 75°, 1953)
Islip: 75° (old record: 74°, 1969, 1979, and 1984)
New Haven: 77° (old record: 73°, 1953 and 2017)
New York City-JFK: 79°
New York City-LGA: 80° (old record: 79°, 1953 and 1984)
New York City-NYC: 75°
Newark: 80° (tied record set in 1947 and tied in 1969)
Philadelphia: 76°
White Plains: 74°

Newark reached 70° for the 172nd time this year. As a result, 2021 is now has the 2nd most days on record. Today was also Newark's 116th 80° day, which ranks 2nd on the all-time list.

Tomorrow and Friday will be unseasonably warm. Another cool shot is likely for the weekend.

The MJO has now completed its passage through Phase 5 at a very high amplitude. During the 1991-2020 period, there were 6 cases with passage through Phase 5 with at least three days at an amplitude of 1.500 or above: 1998, 2000, 2004, 2010, 2017, and 2020. There was a strong signal for the second half of October to wind up warmer than normal (83%) cases in the New York City area. However, that signal broke down to a 50-50 split for the first 10 days of November. That hints at possible timing for a pattern transition depending on the pattern evolution and changes in the teleconnections.

Fall 2021 will likely be wetter to much wetter than normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region. Since 1869, there have been 9 August cases where New York City picked up 20.00" or more rainfall during the summer. Two thirds of those cases (and 4/5 of those with summer mean temperatures of 73.0° or above) had 17.00" or more fall precipitation in New York City. 2011 is probably the closest match in terms of precipitation and a nearly identical summer mean temperature. Mean fall precipitation for those 9 cases was 14.86". The median was 17.35". The 1991-2020 normal value is 12.27".

Following very wet July-September periods, winter (December-February) precipitation has typically been near or below normal. The most recent exception was winter 2018-19.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around October 13. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.15°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.43°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through at least mid-winter.

The SOI was +6.70 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.151 today.

On October 18 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 0.315 (RMM). The October 17-adjusted amplitude was 0.375 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 98% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 61.7° (3.8° above normal).

 

omg JFK got so close to 80!  what happened? there was no sea breeze they should've made it!  what was JFK's record? I have my fan on lol.  Another chance tomorrow?

 

 

[LibertyBell]

6 hours ago, Allsnow said:

It really does feel like summer tonight! Just one of those early September nights! I 100% agree about this 3 month pattern persistence. It’s something we have been stuck in for years now. I remember last November it was 70 degrees to start the month. It was great for the late season stripe bass fishing. I’m completely okay with it being warm currently! I don’t want a ideal pattern for snow until mid December 

its wonderful, I hate shivering in October more than just about anything

 

[LibertyBell]

8 hours ago, uncle W said:

warm la nina Octobers and the following winter snowfall...

1908-09...20.3"...

1949-50...13.8"...

1950-51...11.6"...

1954-55...11.5"...

1955-56...35.0"...

1971-72...21.9"...

1973-74...23.5"...

1984-85...24.1"...

1995-96...75.6"...

2007-08...11,9"...

2017-18...40.9"...

a lot of la ninas in this list with both a lot of snow and very little snow

 

[LibertyBell]

8 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

No offense but if it were the reverse right now you would say the pattern would change in time and cause a mild, snowfree winter. 

I personally think we're going to an AN temp winter with near normal snows though that's highly dependent on blocking.

snowfall totals are completely unpredictable no matter how warm the winter as a whole is

 

[LibertyBell]

8 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

No offense but if it were the reverse right now you would say the pattern would change in time and cause a mild, snowfree winter. 

I personally think we're going to an AN temp winter with near normal snows though that's highly dependent on blocking.

2005-06 was a torch winter where we got 40" of snow and it was a La Nina too

[LibertyBell]

8 hours ago, bluewave said:

In the new era of stuck and stagnant weather patterns it has happened twice. The 13-14 ridiculously resilient ridge pattern started in October and continued into the winter. Fall 2016 featured the trough locking in near Seattle during September and running through the winter. Even though 16-17 had record winter warmth near 40°, we still had close to 40” of snow in spots for a 40/40 winter. The SE Ridge and Pacific Jet relaxed just enough at times for the -NAO /-AO intervals to produce. Even though it was in the 60s the day before the February blizzard.

 

you only need the pattern to change for a few days to get a snowstorm.....so we had 40/40 both in 2015-16 and 2016-17? How close was 2005-06 to that?

[snowman19]

10 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Strong coastal signal for next week though not sure where it'll end up. 

EPS definitely has more of a +PNA showing up late October into early November.

Yep, we’ve been hearing that the +PNA/-EPO pattern has been coming since September 1st…..eventually it will get here…. 

[Rtd208]

Mt. Holly's current take on next week. I would lean more towards the GFS Op but we'll see. 

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 
  An upper level low will remain quasi-stationary near the Hudson 
  Bay Saturday into Sunday before getting ejected east over the 
  Canadian Maritimes. Mostly dry conditions are forecast Saturday 
  into Sunday with highs in the low to mid 60s. The aforementioned 
  wave in the short term discussion will cross the zones early 
  Saturday, which may induce some shower development but chances 
  look low here. Have kept chances of precipitation capped at 
  slight chance. Either way, cloud cover will likely be more 
  robust Saturday and Sunday.  
   
  Late Sunday into Monday another wave crosses the Central Plains 
  with surface cyclogenesis occurring over KS. The wave will then 
  head east along the tightening baroclinic zone with chances of 
  precipitation increasing from west to east Monday morning. 
  Chances of precipitation will then continue into Tuesday as a 
  psuedo Miller-B pattern tries to setup. The pattern here remains 
  low predictability though as the GFS indicates wave breaking 
  occurring with a deep vertically stacked area of low pressure 
  developing by Wednesday. The ECMWF shows a much more 
  progressive pattern. Taking a look at the latest EPS and GEFS 
  runs, would indicate that the deterministic GFS deepens the low 
  pressure far to much. The deterministic ECMWF solution appears  
  to fit the overall ensemble envelope much more.  
   
  && 

[Brasiluvsnow]

what is Halloween going to look like,,,,,getting close and the kids are asking. Looks like it could be in the 60's but will it be dry and will it be warmer or cooler  ?

[wdrag]

As per several prior notes from others: 00z/21 cycle modeling continues the risk of a pretty decent storm in the northeast next week (or two storms?).  Additionally, should something get going along the w Mexican coast and approach the Gulf of CA ~26th, some of its moisture may get involved in the northeast USA storminess ~ the 30th. Something to keep an eye on.

Not wintry but definitely signs that one of these troughs crossing the mid Atlantic coast between the 25th-30th is going to create an ocean nor'easter of 40-50kt... whether its' grazing Delmarva or LI?  and with only a few 40 kt gusts or more vigorous on our coasts? Tides are not abnormally high so that is good.  The previously posted 500MB height departures from normal show the blocking.  

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts…

It will partly to mostly sunny and unseasonably warm. High temperatures will likely reach the middle and upper 70s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 74°

Newark: 79°

Philadelphia: 77°

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 62.6°; 15-Year: 63.2°

Newark: 30-Year: 64.1°; 15-Year: 65.0°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 65.3°; 15-Year: 65.7° 

The warm weather will continue through tomorrow, but a cooler weekend lies ahead.

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging 60degs.(55/64), or +5.

Month to date  64.3[+4.4].          Could be  63.0[+4.5] by the 29th.

Went from 58 to 77 here yesterday.

Today:  73-77, Wind w. to sw., p. sunny.

60*(75%RH) here at 6am.        66* at Noon.         Only 69* at 3pm, cool sea breeze.

[lee59]

52  degrees this morning, a little chillier than I thought it would get.

[the_other_guy]

Normal high today is 60 Give or take a degree or two depending on what part of the region you’re in

Just for perspective…

[lee59]

9 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

Normal high today is 60 Give or take a degree or two depending on what part of the region you’re in

Just for perspective…

Actually a little higher than that in the immediate metro area, 63 Central Park and 64 Newark, 62 Islip. But to your point it is already 60 in Central Park, although a lot of the more rural areas are quite a bit chillier.

[lee59]

Nice moderating

[wdrag]

1 hour ago, wdrag said:

As per several prior notes from others: 00z/21 cycle modeling continues the risk of a pretty decent storm in the northeast next week (or two storms?).  Additionally, should something get going along the w Mexican coast and approach the Gulf of CA ~26th, some of its moisture may get involved in the northeast USA storminess ~ the 30th. Something to keep an eye on.

Not wintry but definitely signs that one of these troughs crossing the mid Atlantic coast between the 25th-30th is going to create an ocean nor'easter of 40-50kt... whether its' grazing Delmarva or LI?  and with only a few 40 kt gusts or more vigorous on our coasts? Tides are not abnormally high so that is good.  The previously posted 500MB height departures from normal show the blocking.  

One other note.   There is a high wind signal for parts of the area sometime next week and possibly svr as well. No thread yet but if these trends continue another day,  will probably start one for damaging wind and spotty 4+ inches of rain in our subforum.  Definitely will be active as compared to this week.