MJO812 Posted October 20, 2021 Share Posted October 20, 2021 7 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: That likely wont get us much snow if that turns out to be true.... Agree Hopefully we don't waste it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 20, 2021 Share Posted October 20, 2021 34 minutes ago, bluewave said: It’s difficult to get more than a trace of snow during a La. Nina November in NYC. La Niña years bolded Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of NovClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Total Snowfall Missing Count 2020 0.0 0 2019 0.0 0 2018 6.4 0 2017 T 0 2016 T 0 2015 0.0 0 2014 0.2 0 2013 T 0 2012 4.7 0 2011 0.0 0 2010 T 0 2009 0.0 0 2008 T 0 2007 T 0 2006 0.0 0 2005 T 0 2004 T 0 2003 0.0 0 2002 T 0 2001 0.0 0 2000 0.0 0 1995 was the last time a la nina November that had snow...1950, 1951 and 1971 had big storms but with very little snow in the city...upstate New York was clobbered around thanksgiving 1971... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted October 20, 2021 Share Posted October 20, 2021 1 hour ago, bluewave said: It’s difficult to get more than a trace of snow during a La. Nina November in NYC. La Niña years bolded Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of NovClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Total Snowfall Missing Count 2020 0.0 0 2019 0.0 0 2018 6.4 0 2017 T 0 2016 T 0 2015 0.0 0 2014 0.2 0 2013 T 0 2012 4.7 0 2011 0.0 0 2010 T 0 2009 0.0 0 2008 T 0 2007 T 0 2006 0.0 0 2005 T 0 2004 T 0 2003 0.0 0 2002 T 0 2001 0.0 0 2000 0.0 0 Actually all November's are snowless here. In my lifetime 63 years I have seen 4 accumulating snows in November 67,89,2012 and 2018..most have a trace or nothing. Your more likely to get snow in April than November. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 20, 2021 Share Posted October 20, 2021 2 hours ago, Brian5671 said: October could have one heck of a positive anomoly....Dry too now which will add some to the warmth Foliage is well behind schedule. Will probably go well into November this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 20, 2021 Share Posted October 20, 2021 13 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Foliage is well behind schedule. Will probably go well into November this year. I'd say we're still 75% green here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 20, 2021 Share Posted October 20, 2021 1 hour ago, KEITH L.I said: Actually all November's are snowless here. In my lifetime 63 years I have seen 4 accumulating snows in November 67,89,2012 and 2018..most have a trace or nothing. Your more likely to get snow in April than November. I think you forgot 1995? I had 4 inches here right at the start of that epic pattern-was very late November. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 20, 2021 Share Posted October 20, 2021 Pretty impressive Northern Hemisphere temperature rise coming up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 20, 2021 Share Posted October 20, 2021 3 hours ago, bluewave said: The cold will be limited to start November in North America with the SPV going over to Europe and Asia. Yea, I would definitely not be comfortable forecasting a cold and or snowy November in the east right now, after weakening initially early in November, the SPV looks to completely recover and strengthen by month’s end. Also, you have a coupled, strengthening La Niña, strong -PDO, -PMM and the SSTs along and off the east coast are blazing right now, they are going to help feedback into the WAR/SE ridge. The PAC has wanted to stay -PNA/+EPO/+SOI since the beginning of September, it’s been a very persistent, stagnant pattern there. Also, unlike last year’s east-based event, this Niña is definitely more central-based: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted October 20, 2021 Share Posted October 20, 2021 Who would ever make a call for November in New York City to be snowy? As someone above pointed out it’s happened a few times AND almost always leads to a nearly snowless winter to follow. As another poster mentioned, a warm Sept Oct and Nov is almost always a sign of a warm winter. In the next 3-4 weeks you will know if winter is going to arrive or if we have to hope for small-ball, pattern, one-off snow events like Feb 2014 or Feb 95 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 20, 2021 Author Share Posted October 20, 2021 6 minutes ago, jfklganyc said: Who would ever make a call for November in New York City to be snowy? As someone above pointed out it’s happened a few times AND almost always leads to a nearly snowless winter to follow. As another poster mentioned, a warm Sept Oct and Nov is almost always a sign of a warm winter. In the next 3-4 weeks you will know if winter is going to arrive or if we have to hope for small-ball, pattern, one-off snow events like Feb 2014 or Feb 95 Huh? 2013-14 had 60" of snow. Maybe you're thinking of Jan 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 20, 2021 Share Posted October 20, 2021 58 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Also, you have a coupled, strengthening La Niña, strong -PDO, -PMM and the SSTs along and off the east coast are blazing right now, they are going to help feedback into the WAR/SE ridge. The PAC has wanted to stay -PNA/+EPO/+SOI since the beginning of September, it’s been a very persistent, stagnant pattern there. Also, unlike last year’s east-based event, this Niña is definitely more central-based: Yeah, it’s been a long time since we had a cold pool and deep trough in the Northeast Pacific during the fall. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted October 20, 2021 Share Posted October 20, 2021 384hr GFS looks really good https://ibb.co/XY17hLZ I bet it will trend more -PNA/SE ridge, but if this holds, we did get 5.5" on Nov 15, 2018 down here. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 20, 2021 Share Posted October 20, 2021 1 hour ago, jfklganyc said: Who would ever make a call for November in New York City to be snowy? As someone above pointed out it’s happened a few times AND almost always leads to a nearly snowless winter to follow. As another poster mentioned, a warm Sept Oct and Nov is almost always a sign of a warm winter. In the next 3-4 weeks you will know if winter is going to arrive or if we have to hope for small-ball, pattern, one-off snow events like Feb 2014 or Feb 95 If the pattern is right then why not ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 20, 2021 Share Posted October 20, 2021 You can see a change coming from the changes on the gfs in the long range . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 20, 2021 Share Posted October 20, 2021 2 hours ago, Stormlover74 said: Huh? 2013-14 had 60" of snow. Maybe you're thinking of Jan 2016 Jan 2016 was the greatest snowfall of my life, I will take that again and dont care about anything else Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 20, 2021 Share Posted October 20, 2021 2 hours ago, Stormlover74 said: Huh? 2013-14 had 60" of snow. Maybe you're thinking of Jan 2016 He's probably thinking of Feb 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 20, 2021 Share Posted October 20, 2021 3 hours ago, Brian5671 said: I think you forgot 1995? I had 4 inches here right at the start of that epic pattern-was very late November. had accumulating snow in both November and April in 1995-96 that was awesome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 20, 2021 Share Posted October 20, 2021 20 hours ago, uncle W said: I remember back in 1971 when October was warm to the end...November turned out colder than normal with record cold...December reverted back to warmer than normal...it took until late January for real winter pattern to lock in for a month...like last year February was the coldest snowiest month...the real winter pattern was locked in for a month...1995-96 was locked in from 12/9 to 1/12...then a pause...then three more weeks the beginning of February and on and off in March ... and into April! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 20, 2021 Share Posted October 20, 2021 The high of 79° so far at Newark is close to the 80° record high. https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?sid=KEWR&table=1&num=168&banner=off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 20, 2021 Author Share Posted October 20, 2021 2 minutes ago, bluewave said: The high of 79° so far at Newark is close to the 80° record high. https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?sid=KEWR&table=1&num=168&banner=off Give it another 30-60 minutes 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 20, 2021 Share Posted October 20, 2021 On 10/11/2021 at 4:14 PM, forkyfork said: whenever we get sun we go past the forecast high 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 20, 2021 Share Posted October 20, 2021 22 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Give it another 30-60 minutes Islip beat Newark by a few minutes. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 20, 2021 Share Posted October 20, 2021 2 hours ago, bluewave said: Yeah, it’s been a long time since we had a cold pool and deep trough in the Northeast Pacific during the fall. If he’s correct and a AK/GOA vortex is a persistent, semi-permanent feature this winter, we are in a lot of trouble. An AK/GOA vortex is a mega torch pattern for the CONUS and Canada Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 20, 2021 Share Posted October 20, 2021 2 minutes ago, bluewave said: Islip beat Newark by a few minutes. Bridgeport and New Haven have also set new records. LGA has tied its record. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted October 20, 2021 Share Posted October 20, 2021 35 minutes ago, snowman19 said: If he’s correct and a AK/GOA vortex is a persistent, semi-permanent feature this winter, we are in a lot of trouble. An AK/GOA vortex is a mega torch pattern for the CONUS and Canada The chance this pattern holds is close to zero...anyone who wants cold and snow wants this pattern to keep up another 3-4 weeks before it flips but its almost never that a pattern from September holds all winter. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 20, 2021 Share Posted October 20, 2021 36 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: Bridgeport and New Haven have also set new records. LGA has tied its record. Yeah, the record warmth continues… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted October 20, 2021 Share Posted October 20, 2021 77.7 today is the October max temp at my site. Beating out a couple 77.6's lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted October 20, 2021 Share Posted October 20, 2021 1 hour ago, SnowGoose69 said: The chance this pattern holds is close to zero...anyone who wants cold and snow wants this pattern to keep up another 3-4 weeks before it flips but its almost never that a pattern from September holds all winter. In our old Climate this was definitely true. The problem is we have seen ultra persistent patterns in recent years. The question is how long this can hold. It’s not what we want to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 20, 2021 Share Posted October 20, 2021 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: If he’s correct and a AK/GOA vortex is a persistent, semi-permanent feature this winter, we are in a lot of trouble. An AK/GOA vortex is a mega torch pattern for the CONUS and Canada No offense but if it were the reverse right now you would say the pattern would change in time and cause a mild, snowfree winter. I personally think we're going to an AN temp winter with near normal snows though that's highly dependent on blocking. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 20, 2021 Share Posted October 20, 2021 warm la nina Octobers and the following winter snowfall... 1908-09...20.3"... 1949-50...13.8"... 1950-51...11.6"... 1954-55...11.5"... 1955-56...35.0"... 1971-72...21.9"... 1973-74...23.5"... 1984-85...24.1"... 1995-96...75.6"... 2007-08...11,9"... 2017-18...40.9"... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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